Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012
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  Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012
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Author Topic: Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012  (Read 23054 times)
Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #150 on: November 17, 2012, 12:35:16 PM »

As I mentioned earlier I am trying my best to tally the local area results but it is being hindered by a local of the PARO (police area returning officers) only publishing the area counts not the local area counts (and who has the time and effort to visit all 315 council websites to do it). I'm on about 120 local areas so far bu at this rate it's going to take as long as it will take the US states to certify their results.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #151 on: November 17, 2012, 01:24:51 PM »

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #152 on: November 17, 2012, 02:35:58 PM »

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea
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countydurhamboy
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« Reply #153 on: November 17, 2012, 06:17:14 PM »

Right, I don't know If you can draw any meaningful conclusions from an election with a 15% turnout but I will try.
 
1. Can't escape the turnout question; I agree with the poster who called it an omnishambles. The public clearly don't want police commissioners, Still I fear these posts are here to stay.

2. The labour performance was surprisingly average, I thought they would have taken a few more northern areas, I'm looking at you Humberside. I doubt it matters though, Corby matters far more. 

3. The Tories also had a bad day but a few surprising wins in places like staffs saved them from humiliation . The south east was an epic disaster. They lost Surrey, Kent, Hampshire, Lincolnshire, Dorset and West Mercia. These were Tory bastions even in 1945 and 1997, Kent even held out in 1906. Gone!

4. It was really the night of the independent. I dont much like independents, however most of the ones elected seem okay. I have a feeling the guy in Surrey may prove interesting.

5. Ukip did well, However the didn't win or come close to winning. Until they do they will never be more than a temporary home for disaffected tories. 

6. Last and definitely least its the Lib Dems. Well At least they held their deposits! Im guessing they were ahead in South Lakeland but did they win anywhere else? I would quite like to know ?
For the Lib dems, I think this result just about sums it up.

Northumberland         Labour  40.9
                                     Lib Dem 8.0 !!
                                     UKIP      10.3
                                     Tory       40.3

Just awful for them! The Tories outpolled them in Newcastle aswell!



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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #154 on: November 17, 2012, 06:25:01 PM »

Presumably no one in Berwick voted?
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Peter
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« Reply #155 on: November 17, 2012, 06:43:19 PM »

Whilst trawling Surrey sites for statistics, came across this interesting tidbit about turnout.

Elmbridge Borough Council
Overall turnout = 15.05%
Postal votes      = 46.12%
Polling station =  9.73%

Epsom and Ewell Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.51%
Postal votes      = 48.36%
Polling station =  9.98%

Guildford Borough Council
Overall turnout = 18.22%
Postal votes      = 46.87%
Polling station =  10%

Mole Valley District Council
Overall turnout = 19.76%
Postal votes      = 47.18%
Polling station = 13.43%

Reigate and Banstead Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.75%
Postal votes      = 45.03%
Polling station =  8.48%

Runnymede Borough Council
Overall turnout = 12.27%
Postal votes      = 49.12%
Polling station =  7.65%

Spelthorne Borough Council
Overall turnout = 13.10%
Postal votes      = 47.82%
Polling station =  8.39%

Surrey Heath Borough Council
Overall turnout = 14.25%
Postal votes      = 46.88%
Polling station =  9.6%

Tandridge District Council
Overall turnout = 15.57%
Postal votes      = 47.56%
Polling station = 10.14%

Woking Borough Council
Overall turnout = 16.56%
Postal votes      = 45.78%
Polling station = 10.05%

Waverley Borough Council
Overall turnout = 17.16%
Postal votes      = 50.38%
Polling station =  11.8%
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #156 on: November 17, 2012, 06:55:16 PM »

I feel that Westmoreland must've been the only section of the country to vote Liberal.
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countydurhamboy
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« Reply #157 on: November 17, 2012, 06:57:53 PM »


It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #158 on: November 17, 2012, 07:19:31 PM »


It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

Berwick will be one of the "Our losses have been offset by gains from the Libs" seats for the Tories in 2015.
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countydurhamboy
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« Reply #159 on: November 17, 2012, 08:03:21 PM »


It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

Berwick will be one of the "Our losses have been offset by gains from the Libs" seats for the Tories in 2015.
In terms of number of seats won, I actually think the Libs will do much better than we all think. They always do.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #160 on: November 17, 2012, 10:13:07 PM »

Is Beith retiring next time?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #161 on: November 18, 2012, 06:11:47 AM »

Reports of polling stations with no votes cast in some areas.
Cheesy
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #162 on: November 18, 2012, 10:42:13 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2012, 10:44:27 AM by Minion of Midas »

Durham result...

Labour    51.56%
Independent    26.83%
UKIP    11.77%
Conservative    9.84%

Hilarious.

The Tories very well might have lost Essex on full AV, and almost certainly would have under Australian style IRV, ie where you have to rank all the candidates.
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countydurhamboy
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« Reply #163 on: November 18, 2012, 11:00:21 AM »

Durham result...

Labour    51.56%
Independent    26.83%
UKIP    11.77%
Conservative    9.84%


The reason for the pathetic Tory result was they struggled to get a candidate, so had to run a 22 year old. The Labour candidate was also very strong.  In both Northumbria and Cleveland  the Tories got 26%.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #164 on: November 18, 2012, 11:06:03 AM »


It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

Berwick will be one of the "Our losses have been offset by gains from the Libs" seats for the Tories in 2015.
In terms of number of seats won, I actually think the Libs will do much better than we all think. They always do.

They didn't in 2010...
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Andrea
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« Reply #165 on: November 18, 2012, 02:11:49 PM »

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea

how many PCC areas have you fully tallied?
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #166 on: November 18, 2012, 03:09:50 PM »

Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15
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Andrea
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« Reply #167 on: November 19, 2012, 04:54:01 AM »

Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15

I suppose the 15 PCC areas totally tallied are West Yorkshire, Humberside, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Sussex, Kent, Dyfed Powys, South Wales, Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northumbria, West Midlands, Hampshire, Thames Valley.

 They are the ones where the council managing the area count published the results by area on a single page.

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #168 on: November 19, 2012, 05:40:11 AM »

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

YES PLEASE!!!
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Andrea
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« Reply #169 on: November 19, 2012, 08:07:35 AM »

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

YES PLEASE!!!


Staffs Moorlands: COn 5399 Lab 3838
Cannock Chase: Lab 4426 Con 3126
South Staffordshire Con 6380 Lab 3540
Stoke: Lab 10725 Con 6,674,
Newcastle: Lab 5786 Con 4606


Blackpool

Lab 7,742 Con 5,716 UKIP 2,861 LD 1,159
Second prefs: Con 1,482 Lab 1,297


Blackburn
Lab 8,694 Con 3,998 LD 2,085 UKIP 1,697
Second prefs: Lab 1,483 Con 1,1157

Pendle
LD 3288, Conservative 3252, Labour 2911, UKIP 138

Ribble Valley
Con 2,881 UKIP 1,130 Lab 1,112 LD 633
Second prefs Con 721 Lab 394

Wyre Con 6458 Lab 5249 UKIP 2890 LD 874
Second prefs: Con 1580 Lab 959 (LD 342 UKIP 83 for what it matters. So 83 LibDems transfered to UKIP and 342 UKippers went LD)

South Ribble:
Con 4,587 Lab 4,530 UKIP 2,067 LD 983
Second prefs
Con 1,175 Lab 905 (496 second prefs from LD and UKIP to UKIP and LD)

Chorley
Lab 6500 Con 5407 UKIP 1862 LD 968
Second prefs: Con 1105 Lab 894

Liverpool
Lab 27536 Ind 3582 LD 3395 Con 2203 UKIP 1771 EngDem 1685

Wirral
Lab 13,025,Con 7,108, Ind 4,388, UKIP 2,976, LD 1,918, EngDem 1,737

Sefton: Lab 10,858 Ind Reid 3,999 Con 3,701 LD 2,330 UKIP 2,268 Eng Dem 1,65

Newport:Lab 5345 Ind 5135 Con 2046 Ind 1534
Second pref: Ind 1,697 Lab 433

Bleanau Gwent: Lab 3540 Ind 2353 Ind 517 Con 346
Second prefs: Ind 474 Lab 124

Torfaen: Lab 3988 Ind 3674 Con 973 Ind 966
Second prefs:  Ind 949 Lab 254

Caerphilly: Ind 8033 Lab 7327 Ind 1939 Con 1143
Second prefs Ind 1651 Con 441
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #170 on: November 19, 2012, 10:39:42 AM »

Thank you very much indeed for those.
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doktorb
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« Reply #171 on: November 20, 2012, 05:22:58 PM »

Preston City Council area


First Preferences:

#pcc Police Commissioner results for Preston City council - Lab 6,537, Con 4,501, LibDem 2,243, UKIP 1,733. Rejected 419


Second Preferences:

Con 1,174
Lab  1,420

Second preference votes given to candidates remaining -  2,594
Second preference votes given to candidates eliminated - 703

Rejected  679
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #172 on: November 20, 2012, 07:21:22 PM »

Thanks for that Liam, that brings the tally up to 207 (108 to go)

As things stand I have no results from: Cleveland, Derbyshire, Devon and Cornwall, Dorset, Greater Manchester, Hertfordshire, Humberside, Norfolk, Northamptonshire, South Wales, South Yorkshire, Warwickshire, West Mercia and West Yorkshire.

Then after that there are a couple of local results I am missing from some police force areas and then comes the tricky question of electorates.
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