Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[Sibboleth]

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

[joevsimp]

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

how exactly?

[YL]

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

how exactly?

The Tory candidate, former MP Michael Mates, has some history there.

[Andrea]

An end of Summer recap...

Lab candidate in Avon & Somerset withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 45 years ago.
Lab candidate in Derbyshire withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 47 years ago. However it's then established that said minor offence wasn't worthy of a disqualification and so he's back in the race.
Con candidate in Cambridgeshire withdraws because he's not a party member and some local party activists wanted him to join the party
Con candidate in Nottinghamshire withdraws  because of a minor offence he committed 44 years ago.

There's still lots of time until November....

[Harry Hayfield]

News from the Electoral Commission that might be of interest. The count will be a dual count (i.e like the European Elections) which each local authority announcing full first and second preference counts at their local count centres as well as the regional count centre. Here in Dyfed Powys, that means there will be counts held at Aberaeron (Ceredigion), Llanelli (Carmarthenshire) and Welshpool (Powys) with the head count being organised by Pembrokeshire (and so will be held at Haverfordwest). As the Lib Dems seem highly unlikely to field a candidate, I have filled in an oberserver application form in the hope of going along (if my sciatica has cleared up by then) and hopefully blogging / tweeting the results live

[Die-hard Clockworkfan]

That's not what's happening in Greater Manchester - the ballot papers are being verified in each borough but all the actual counting is taking place at the G-Mex Manchester Central the following day.

In order to reduce costs the returning officer recruited the entire counting team from the Salford mayoral election in May, as they are the only people in Greater Manchester with experience of counting SV; then the returning officer decided to spend money training SV to all the counters, including the Salford team.

[You kip if you want to...]

What a very Tory way to advertise these elections:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT-ywCilmdA&feature=plcp

[Bro-mentum]

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

[DC Al Fine]

Good God, what a horrible idea these elections are.

[Sibboleth]

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

I wouldn't count on anything better than local authority.

[Andrew1]

The consensus seems to be that these elections are a bad idea. But they are happening, so in general I would expect:

Very low turnout / awareness / understanding of voting system

Voting patterns will be similar to local elections, Labour win the mets, northern counties and Wales, Tories win southern counties, etc.

Lib Dems do quite badly, if they even have a candidate

Independents and minor parties may do well, but it would take a remarkably strong campaign for an Independent to win. These are very large areas for an Independent to organise a campaign in.

Having said that the SV system may produce some odd results, one or two Independents may get elected.

I wouldn't be surprised if the post is abolished after one term of office anyway.

[Sibboleth]

[doktorb]

I think AV was explained in more detail during the referendum than SV has been at all throughout the 'campaign'

There will be some almighty bonkers results I suggest (and fear)

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

The Electoral Commission's website has a spreadsheet that shows all the verification and counting times and I get the impression the lowest level will be local authority (although that said for Birmingham it says that the verification will be held in "19 different venues across Birmingham") so whether Birmingham is doing it on constituency or not I cannot say.

[countydurhamboy]

Nobody wanted these elections and the government couldn't have handled them worse. However since  we had to have them, why didn't the government allow them to take place with the locals? How many people are going to vote on a dark, cold November Night?

 I think Labour will have a very good night but with the turnout so low maybe the likes of UKIP have a chance?

[Sibboleth]

I do wonder vaguely about some of the West Country police authorities: a lot of people who are basically conservative but like to cast protest votes against London and who's traditional choice of protest party is now part of the government.

(welcome to the forum, btw)

[countydurhamboy]

I do wonder vaguely about some of the West Country police authorities: a lot of people who are basically conservative but like to cast protest votes against London and who's traditional choice of protest party is now part of the government.

Yep, and since Labour basically don't exist in the West County, I doubt they will get many protest votes. The votes will have to go somewhere and since the public are on the whole right wing about crime, UKIP have a shot.

(welcome to the forum, btw)

Thanks

[Robin]

Good God, what a horrible idea these elections are.

Don't worry, it's not as if anyone is going to bother to vote .......

[You kip if you want to...]

Got my polling card today. My polling station is in the downstairs of my Halls of Residence. Handy.

[Pilchard]

Not sure if people already know this, but I got a reply from the electoral commission confirming that these elections fall under the same rules as local elections, i.e. students registered at home and at university can vote at both addresses as long as they are in different police areas.

Thank you for your email to the Electoral Commission.

As a student registered to vote at your home and university address, you would be eligible to vote at both addresses as long as they fall within different police authority areas. You are not able to vote more than once for an election within the same police area.

Anyway, the candidates so far seem uninspiring, underqualified, or both. Not quite sure what to do, even though the results in both areas are fairly certain. Maybe it's time to have a serious look at the Loonies.

[Leftbehind]

Good God, what a horrible idea these elections are.

Don't worry, it's not as if anyone is going to bother to vote .......

There's always a silver lining...

[Andrea]

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

[Harry Hayfield]

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

That's very helpful indeed thanks Andrea. That means we have candidates from Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Green, UKIP, English Democrats and a myriad of Independents. What we don't have is the SNP (for obvious reasons), the BNP (again for obvious reasons) but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

[YL]

South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab

Ugh.  I have a particular dislike for the English Democrats, and a sort of paranoid fear involving  them and low turnout SV elections.

Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief

Is that the registered description of a political party?

[Andrea]

but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

Until yesterday I didn't even realize they were boycotting these elections.
AT their recent conference they discussed the matter and confirmed their decision not to stand. Here's the statement from a party spokesperon:

A discussion was had during the conference which confirmed the party's earlier decision not to stand police commissioners. The party has long opposed the introduction of elected police and crime commissioners because of the real danger that it could lead to the politicisation of policing. The party also believes that their establishment is not a good use of policing and financial resources at a time of such damaging public sector cuts. The decision not to stand candidates was taken following widespread discussion within the party over the past months