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Author Topic: IA: GOP candidates in the lead  (Read 2680 times)
krazen1211
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« on: February 18, 2012, 09:43:19 pm »
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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120218/NEWS09/120218015/Obama-trails-three-four-Republican-candidates-latest-Iowa-Poll?odyssey=mod%7cbreaking%7ctext%7cFrontpage


The Republican with the biggest lead: Ron Paul, who would defeat Obama by 7 percentage points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Rick Santorum, winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses, leads Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Mitt Romney, edged in the caucuses by Santorum, leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent.



Iowa knows all the candidates the best of course.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2012, 09:54:02 pm »
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Counterintuitive, to be sure.  The President might need to take a couple trips to Iowa.
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2012, 11:02:39 pm »
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okay sure.
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2012, 11:03:24 pm »
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uh huh
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2012, 11:14:53 pm »
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Huh What a hilarious poll.

Seriously, what is this:

Paul up by 7
Santorum up by 4
Romney up by 2
Gingrich down by 14
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2012, 11:16:34 pm »
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Iowa knows all the candidates the best of course.

So you would agree with them that Ron Paul should be the nominee?
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2012, 11:33:34 pm »
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So Obama led virtually every poll when his national numbers were in the doghouse but now that he is on the upswing he trails?

Ok.
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2012, 11:54:09 pm »
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Seems legit.
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2012, 12:27:54 am »
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2012, 12:30:25 am »
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Huh What a hilarious poll.

Seriously, what is this:

Paul up by 7
Santorum up by 4
Romney up by 2
Gingrich down by 14

It's the DMR, and they do a pretty great job. They nailed it a week in advance in 08 and they showed the Santorum surge with their last poll which was a week before the election and most the vote switching happened in the last 48 hours.
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2012, 12:30:36 am »
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Count me in the skeptical group, Iowa is not an R+5 state
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2012, 12:43:48 am »
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Yeah, this...there's no reason anybody should think this makes sense, even if they are krazen.
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2012, 12:51:11 am »
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I can't think of even a crazy reason why Iowa would diverge so much from the national trend as to become an R+2 to 4 state depending on who the eventual GOP nominee is.
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2012, 01:05:07 am »
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Huh What a hilarious poll.

Seriously, what is this:

Paul up by 7
Santorum up by 4
Romney up by 2
Gingrich down by 14

It's the DMR, and they do a pretty great job. They nailed it a week in advance in 08 and they showed the Santorum surge with their last poll which was a week before the election and most the vote switching happened in the last 48 hours.

I'm aware that they have a good reputation, but if IA really is this competitive at this point, why would that not translate to Newt at all in this poll? All of this is bizarre, to say the least.
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2012, 01:20:47 am »
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i dunno, maybe the gop candidates are getting a bump from all their visits to the state?

or maybe it is just an outlier

probably the latter
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Kevin
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2012, 01:54:56 am »
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Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.
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« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2012, 01:57:52 am »
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Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

At least it's not a fantasyland in which a state that has only gone Republican once in the last six elections suddenly turning ~R+4 when the Democratic President's approval rating is markedly improving and the ostensibly-ahead-of-the-President Republican frontrunner's favorability rating is in the crapper makes sense.
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2012, 07:15:43 am »
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You're not talking about PA?
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2012, 07:18:11 am »
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This is a very strange poll, to say the least. I don't doubt that the frequent visits some Republican candidates have payed to the state boost the popularity of the GOP candidates, but this is odd. We definitely need more polls to confirm this.
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2012, 07:27:35 am »
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Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2012, 07:35:18 am »
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I've thought that IA might be a lot closer than in 2008, because the state has a equal amount of Ds and Rs and Is. But this poll seems a bit too GOP friendly. And in 2008, the first DMR/Selzer poll was too Obama-friendly. We need more polls to see if Obama's in trouble there.
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2012, 07:39:14 am »
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Quote
And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

Some of us even have degrees.
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2012, 07:52:59 am »
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So Obama leads in OH, VA, FL and CO but trails in Iowa ? What the hell ? Huh
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2012, 07:56:47 am »
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Quote
Part of the reason Republicans have an edge in this poll is that among likely voters the gap is wider — 35 percent Republicans vs. 27 percent Democrats.
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2012, 08:24:56 am »
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Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

The worst part of his thinking is not that; the worst part of his thinking is his inexplicable love affair with the likes of Pinochet, Milosevic and Apartheid South Africans.
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