What will be the ten largest cities fifty years from now?
Here are my projections:
1 ) New York City, New York
2 ) Los Angeles, California
3 ) Houston, Texas
4 ) Phoenix, Arizona
5 ) Chicago, Illinois
6 ) San Antonio, Texas
7 ) San Jose, California
8 ) San Diego, California
9 ) Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
10 ) Dallas, Texas
I expect water issues to severely constrain Phoenix's growth sometime within the next couple of decades. They will eventually hit all of the sunbelt cities, but not quite as hard or fast.
In general, environmental factors will eventually reverse the long-term trend of south and west migration, as people will move north and east where there is abundant rainfall, reasonable temperatures, and (possibly) an urban form friendly to a post-oil world. However, it very well may take 100 years rather than 50 for most of the cities here, and the ability of many south and west cities to annex their hinterlands will keep their numbers up. So only Phoenix seems that out of place.
I think Columbus is a dark-horse option for the top 10, actually. Unlike most of the Midwest, it's still growing; it can expand its borders as needed; and if I'm right about water issues forcing an end to Sunbelt migration then it could stand to benefit.
