The 100k Districts Series

[traininthedistance]

Think I'll give New Jersey a whirl.

[traininthedistance]

Think I'll give New Jersey a whirl.

The map was not as impossibly hard as I feared, but the write-up is going to take some time.  There are twelve towns which are split, which I think is pretty much as low as practically possible.  Several cities are over 100K- Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, Paterson, and Edison/Metuchen  (Edison surrounds Metuchen).  A couple towns are nearly 100K and surrounded entirely by other large towns: Trenton and Lakewood; so adjacent towns have to be split.  And there are five other places where I can't find a way around splitting something somewhere.  Counties matter more in NJ than in New England, but I still preferred to minimize town splits rather than county splits.

Additionally one district is +5,078 which I could rectify with an additional town split but I think I'm going to let it slide instead.

[traininthedistance]

Alright, here's New Jersey.  Spent way too long on this, mainly because I decided to add a bunch of words to all the pictures.  I'll split this up into a couple of posts, just because it's so long.  Anyway, the state:



And each district section-by-section, working up from the south like NJ districts tend to do.  Racial stats shown as White/Black/Hispanic/Asian noting all groups over 10 percent; all VAP.  I also assigned districts one of five race ratings after the fact, Safe or Lean D/R or Swing, many of which are probably debatable.



Six districts fit exactly in the southernmost four counties: Salem/Cumberland/Atlantic/Cape May.

1:  CAPE MAY.  All of Cape May County.  Population 97,265.  Obama 45.5%, Dem 45.2%, White 89%.  Safe R.  The easiest district to draw on the entire map, no question.

2: ATLANTIC CITY. Atlantic City, Margate City, Brigantine, Absecon, Galloway (part).  Population 100,922.  Obama 61%, Dem 59.2%.  53.0 W/17.8 B/15.8 H/11.6 A.  Safe D, plurality-minority by total population.  The split of Galloway with District 4 is not strictly necessary, but doing so has many benefits.  If you give all of Galloway to 2, then Port Republic is forced to go into a non-Atlantic County district, and District 4 has to grab Stow Creek and Greenwich from 6, which is both ugly and relies on water connectivity, since there's no bridge that low on the Cohansey Creek.  Or you could split another town?  

3: EGG HARBOR.  Egg Harbor, Pleasantville, Northfield, Linwood, Somers Point, Ventnor City, Margate.  Population 97,332.  Obama 57.3%, Dem 54.9%.  64.0 W/13.8 B/14.2 H. Lean D. An earlier draft had considered grouping all of the barrier islands with Pleasantville and Absecon in 2, with this district taking Mays Landing, but there's a sliver of Egg Harbor Township which would have been stranded inside, and it would also have resulted in a much uglier District 4.

4: BLACK HORSE. From Atlantic: Port Republic, Egg Harbor City, Mullica, Hammonton, Folsom, Buena Vista, Buena, Hamilton, Weymouth, Estell Manor, Corbin City, Galloway (part).  From Cumberland: Maurice River, Commercial, Downe, Lawrence, Fairfield.  Population 100,619.  Obama 53.7%, Dem 52.6%.  69.3 W/14.7 B/12.1 H.  Swing.  A leftovers district taking in all the marshiest, Piney-est, most rural land in Atlantic and Cumberland.  I decided to name this district after the historic Black Horse Pike, it was nicer than "Bogs and Marshes" and none of the towns are particularly large.

5: METRO CUMBERLAND.  Vineland, Millville, Deerfield, Upper Deerfield.  Population 99,903.  Obama 60.6%, Dem 57.6%.  58.9 W/12.8 B/24.9 H.  Safe D, Hispanic influence.  Two of Cumberland's cities are here, Deerfield/Upper Deerfield are added for population.  This area was a historic center of glass production and Welch's was founded here.

6: SALEM-BRIDGETON.  All of Salem County.  From Cumberland: Greenwich, Stow Creek, Bridgeton, Hopewell, Shiloh.  Population 98,754.  Obama 53.5%, Dem 51.4%.  66.4 W/17.8 B/13.4H.  Swing.  This is certainly the most agricultural district in the state.



Eight districts fit exactly within Gloucester/Camden.  Unfortunately, this is the last group of counties where I was able to pull off that trick.

7: GLASSBORO-SOUTH GLOUCESTER. Glassboro, Monroe, Frankin, Newfield, Harrison, South Harrison, Elk.  Population 101,055.  Obama 55.9%, Dem 54.6%.  80.8 W/11.4 B.  Lean D.  The deviation was -1, best I was able to manage on the entire map.

8: WOODBURY-WEST GLOUCESTER.  Woolwich, Swedesboro, Logan, Greenwich, Paulsboro, East Greenwich, Mantua, Pitman, Woodbury, Woodbury Heights, National City.  Population 101,547.  Obama 57.0%, Dem 55.2%, White 84.5%.  Lean D.  Not much to say here.

9: DEPTFORD-WASHINGTON. From Gloucester: Deptford, Washington, Wenonah, Westville.  From Camden: Bellmawr.  Population 97,269.  Obama 55.0%, Dem 55.0%, White 84.3%.  Lean D.  The crossover district, dominated by the portions of Gloucester which are most clearly postwar suburbia.  (Woodbury, Glassboro etc. are more older small towns, the rest of the county is largely sprawl and endangered farms).

10: LINDENWOLD-SOUTH CAMDEN.  Waterford, Chesilhurst, Winslow, Pine Hill, Pine Valley, Clementon, Berlin, West Berlin, Gibbsboro, Lindenwold.  Population 99,859.  Obama 67.1%, Dem 63.9%, 63.8 W/23.7B.  Safe D, arguably black influence.  

11: MID-CAMDEN.  Gloucester, Runnemede, Laurel Springs, Stratford, Hi-Nella, Somerdale, Magnolia, Lawnside, Barrington.  Population 102,340.  Obama 64.2%, Dem 61.7%, 75.9 W/14.7B.  Safe D.  The largest town here by far is Gloucester Township, but that would be confusing as this is an all-Camden County district.  There's a bit of  a contrast between more suburban Gloucester Twp. and the older boroughs along the PATCO line, but population math dictates they be thrown together.

12: CHERRY HILL.  Cherry Hill, Voorhees.  Population 100,176.  Obama 62.4%, Dem 60.0%, 75.4 W/12.6 A.  Safe D.  Another easy district.  In the north half of Camden I was able to separate out by city/older town/postwar suburb much better.

13: CAMDEN CITY.  Camden, Woodlynne, Gloucester City, Brooklawn, Mt. Ephraim.  Population 98,409.  Obama 86.3%, Dem 84.4%.  23.6 W/36.0 B/36.5 H.  Safe D, minority opportunity.  The first district likely to elect a minority.

14: HADDON-PENNSAUKEN.  Pennsauken, Merchantville, Collingswood, Oaklyn, Audubon, Audubon Park, Haddon Heights, Haddon, Haddonfield, Tavistock.  Population 101,290.  Obama 66.9%, Dem 61.4%.  73.4 W/10.7 B/10.9 H.  Safe D.  The connection between Pennsauken and the small towns southeast of Camden is a little tenuous, as they're separated by the Cooper River, and the one bridge in this area (Rt. 30) dips into Camden for a couple hundred feet.  But given what's on each side of this district, it makes sense.



The next group is Burlington and Ocean counties.  I really don't like that this is the group which emerged: Burlington is part of the Philly metro and is oriented towards the Delaware River, whereas Ocean is part of the NYC metro and is oriented toward, well, the ocean.  But they do share the Pinelands, and the large townships in the suburbanized part of Ocean constrained my lines somewhat.  Burlington shares one district each with Ocean and Mercer, Ocean manages to only share a district with Burlington.

15: MAPLE SHADE-MOORESTOWN-RIVERLINE SOUTH.  Palmyra, Riverton, Cinnaminson, Delran, Riverside, Delanco, Beverley, Moorestown, Maple Shade.  Population 97,438.  Obama 57.1%, Dem 53.8%, White 81.4%.  Lean D.  I've taken the RiverLine a bunch, it's a nice ride through a bunch of small towns that really do seem to be doing better since they built the train.  This district seems to be chock full of Dems who regularly cross party lines to vote for Diane Allen.

16: BURLINGTON-WILLINGBORO.  Florence, Burlington (city and twp.), Edgewater Park, Westampton, Eastampton.  Population 100,015.  Obama 74.2%, Dem 69.1%, 48.8 W/37.4 B.  Safe D, black opportunity.  I don't like the cutout for Mount Holly around West- and Eastampton, but that's how the population math worked out.

17: MOUNT LAUREL-EVESHAM-MOUNT HOLLY.  Those three towns plus Hainesport.  Population 103,048.  Obama 57.0%, Dem 51.5%, White 81.1%.  Swing.  I wonder if there's a better name for this district than just listing three-quarters of its towns. Mount Holly doesn't really fit (it's better in 16) but I couldn't find a better way to do it without splitting towns.

18: MID-BURLINGTON.  Mansfield, Springfield, Wrightstown, New Hanover, Pemberton (boro and twp.), Southampton, Lumberton, Medford, Medford Lakes.  Population 99,668.  Obama 53.0%, Dem 47.7%, 76.0 W/12.0 B.  Lean R.  A mishmash of exurbs, Plnelands, a few farms, and part of Fort Dix.  

19: PINELANDS-LONG BEACH.  From Burlington: Tabernacle, Woodland, Shamong, Washington, Bass River.  From Ocean: Barnegat, Stafford, Eagleswood, Little Egg Harbor, Tuckerton, Barnegat Light, Long Beach, Harvey Cedars, Surf City, Ship Bottom, Beach Haven.  Population 97,336.  Obama 42.0%, Dem 41.1%, White 92.5%.  Safe R.  The one thing Burlington and Ocean do have in common is the pines, and this is the Piney-est district of them all, with LBI added because there's no where else for it to go.  I think this is the largest district by area, but #4 comes close.

20: BARNEGAT BAY.  Ocean, Lacey, Berkeley, South Toms River, Beachwood, Pine Beach, Seaside Park. Population 97,677.  Obama 41.5%, Dem 43.9%, White 92.3%.  Safe R.  The rest of Ocean County south of Toms River, most of the beach is a state park here.  There's no road connection between the two sides of the bay, but that's unavoidable.

21: TOMS RIVER.  Toms River (née Dover), Island Heights, Lavallette, Seaside Heights.  Population 97,674.  Obama 41.5%, Dem 41.9%, White 87.1%.  Safe R.  Another easy district to draw, though all the huge townships in this area make the surrounding districts a bit more constrained.

22: BRICK-POINT PLEASANT.  Brick, Point Pleasant, Point Pleasant Beach, Mantoloking, Bay Head.  Population 99,393.  Obama 40.7%, Dem 40.8%, Anglo 91.1%.  Safe R.  Much like Toms River.

23: LAKEWOOD.  Lakewood, Jackson (part).  Population 100,339.  Obama 40.4%, Dem 46.0%, 72.3 W/18.3 H.  Safe R.  Splitting a town is unavoidable in this area, as Lakewood is about 8K short of a district and all the surrounding towns are huge.  Taking a tiny bite out of Jackson makes the rest of the this area work out very well here.  There is something wonky with the Obama numbers in Lakewood, probably not just Orthodox block voting, but there's no way this district is anything but solid R anyway.

24: NORTHWEST OCEAN.  Plumstead, Manchester, Lakehurst, Jackson (part).  Populaton 100,339.  Obama 42.4%, Dem 42.4%, White 88.3%. Safe R.  This takes in the rest of Ocean, as well as the rest of Fort Dix.

[traininthedistance]

Part 2 of NJ in 87 districts!



Moving to Central Jersey: Mercer has two districts entirely within its boundaries, and two that spill over.  It also splits Hamilton Township, which is necessary as Trenton poses the exact same problem as Lakewood.  I don't like all that splitting, but it has to happen somewhere.  Monmouth is a little better, with six whole districts and part of one which is mostly in Middlesex.

25: HAMILTON-BORDENTOWN. From Mercer: Hamilton (part).  From Burlington: Bordentown (city and twp.), Fieldsboro, Chesterfield, North Hanover.  Population 102,434.  Obama 53.0%, Dem 50.6%, 77.0 W/10.2 B.  Swing.  Hamilton is split because Trenton needs to take a chunk from one of its neighbors; doing it this way cleans up the rest of Burlington and preserves the old East Jersey/West Jersey line through Mercer, which appeals to my sense of aesthetics.

26: TRENTON. Trenton, Hamilton (part).  Population 102,151.  Obama 85.9%, Dem 80.5%.  24.0 W/43.4 B/29.7H.  Safe D, black opportunity.

27: EAST MERCER.  Princeton (twp. and boro), West Windsor, East Windsor, Hightstown, Robbinsville (née Washington).  Population 102,063.  Obama 68.1%, Dem 60.7%.  63.2 W/10.2 H/19.5 A.  Safe D, Asian influence.  All of Mercer east of the old East Jersey/West Jersey dividing line was too perfect to give up.  I almost wanted to call this one "Princeton Junction" after the NJT station.

28: EWING-NORTH MERCER.  From Mercer: Ewing, Lawrence, Hopewell (twp. and boro), Pennington.  From Hunterdon: West Amwell, Delaware, Lambertville.  Population 103,920.  Obama 65.0%, Dem 59.2%, 72.7 W/13.1 B.  Safe D.  After this I ignore the rest of Hunterdon until the very end.  Which (spoiler alert) comes back to bite me.

29: WEST MONMOUTH.  Allentown, Upper Freehold, Roosevelt, Millstone, Manalapan, Englishtown, Marlboro.  Population 101,088.  Obama 45.6%, Dem 47.6%, 82.4 W/10.1 A.  Safe R.

30: FREEHOLD-HOWELL.  Freehold (twp. and boro), Howell.  Population 100,640.  Obama 45.5%, Dem 42.9%, 77.4 W/11.2 H.  Safe R.  A lot of these towns in Central Jersey are large enough to make the map-drawing somewhat difficult, but in this case it worked out perfectly.

31: MID-MONMOUTH.  Keyport, Union Beach, Hazlet, Holmdel, Colt's Neck, Wall, Spring Lake Heights, Manasquan.  Population 96,385.  Obama 40.0%, Dem 38.7%, White 86.7%.  Safe R.  The most Republican district in South Jersey.  This is, for my money, the ugliest district on the map (#73 a close second), with no road connection between Wall and Colts Neck (you have to cut through Howell, or walk across the Naval Weapons Station Earle) but there are good reasons for it.  The main reason is Middletown, which is a huge uncuttable block of population in the northeast, and this configuration is the only way to keep both Freehold-Howell and prevent multiple parts of the Middletown district from being disconnected via road.  An earlier draft had Tinton Falls rather than Keyport and Union Beach, and #33 reached up to Sandy Hook, but then the bulk of the Middletown district was cut off from both Sandy Hook and Keyport/Union Beach.  So this configuration was ultimately preferable.
 
32: BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN-E STREET BAND.  Manasquan, Sea Girt, Spring Lake, South Belmar, Belmar, Avon-By-The-Sea, Bradley Beach, Neptune City, Neptune, Ocean, Deal, Allenhurst, Interlaken, Loch Arbour, and of course Asbury Park.  Population 102,941.  Obama 59.0%, Dem 56.3%.  65.8 W/19.3 B/10.5 H.  Lean D.    I guess you could call this "Asbury Park-Neptune" or "Jersey Shore" or something, but where's the fun in that?  This is the most intensely shore-focused district on the map, and the line between 31/32 was specifically drawn to have a shore and an inland district as much as possible.

33: SHREWSBURY-LONG BRANCH.  Red Bank, Shrewsbury (twp. and boro), Little Silver, Tinton Falls Sea Bright, Monmouth Beach, Oceanport, Eatontown, West Long Branch, Long Branch.  Population 98,355.  Obama 53.3%, Dem 51.4%, 70.7 W/14.7 H.  Swing.  The earlier configuration for this district, before I fixed #34, was more obviously shore-focused, now there's just Long Branch.  You win some, you lose some, it's still cohesive and compact.

34: MIDDLETOWN-NAVESINK. Monmouth Beach, Fair Haven, Rumson, Sea Bright, Middletown, Highlands, Atlantic Highlands, Keansburg.  Population 103,951.  Obama 43.1%, Dem 42.1%, White 90.2%.  Safe R.  The northernmost reaches of the Jersey Shore and Sandy Hook, but Middletown dominates here.  It also forces this shape, as it has an exclave in Keansburg, and also requires the two Highlands and Sea Bright if you want to get from Sandy Hook to the rest of Middletown.  Bruuuuuce actually lives here now.

…

Middlesex is the worst county for splits, bar none.  It has six districts entirely within its boundaries, but four that it shares with neighboring counties: one with Monmouth, one with Somerset, one with Union, and one with Union and Somerset (there's a really good CoI reason for that, though).  Worse than that, three towns are split among those districts.  While the large towns in the Toms River area mostly worked themselves out, southern Middlesex is hell to make work with 100K districts, so there are, ugh, two splits there.   In addition, Somerset has two districts of its own and one it has to share with Morris.

35: CHEESEQUAKE.  From Monmouth: Matawan, Aberdeen.  From Middlesex: Old Bridge, Sayerville (part).  Population 104,773.  Obama 52.7%, Dem 51.8%, 69.5 W/12.4 A.  Swing.  I tried a zillion different configurations to prevent two non-Edison splits of the Middlesex districts and nothing worked.  Monroe, Sayreville, and the Brunswicks are obnoxiously sized for 100K districts, even with a few small boroughs to smooth things out.  This configuration looked prettiest, so I went with it.  Cheesequake, of course, is a hilariously-named state park in Old Bridge.

36: AMBOY.  Perth Amboy, South Amboy, South River, Sayreville (part).  Population 105,779.  Obama 65.1%, Dem 64.0%, 43.1 W/41.7 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  This district is actually plurality Hispanic by total population.  A well-sized district can be made without South River and with the entirety of Sayreville, but that makes it impossible to have the Brunswicks work without even more splits.

37: EAST BRUNSWICK-MONROE.  East Brunswick, Monroe, Spotswood, Helmetta, Jamesburg.  Population 102,994.  Obama 54.4%, Dem 54.0%, 74.6 W/14.6 A.  Lean D.  If you wanted to call this "Swing" instead I wouldn't argue.

38: SOUTH BRUNSWICK. From Middlesex: Cranbury, Plainsboro, South Brunswick.  From Somerset: Montgomery, Rocky Hill, Franklin (part).  Population 100,231.  Obama 63.0%, Dem 55.1, 53.9 W/32.5 A.  Safe D, Asian influence.  Crossing county lines and chopping a town!  Madness!  This configuration enables #37, #39, and #44 to work, it's plenty compact and cohesive, and the town that is chopped, Franklin, is obnoxiously long and diverse in its building patterns anyway.  

39: NORTH BRUNSWICK. North Brunswick, New Brunswick, Milltown.  Population 102, 816.  Obama 71.0%, Dem 66.9%.  40.5 W/13.8 B/29.7 B/14.1 A.  Safe D, minority influence.  The chops in #38 enable this district to stay super-compact and super-sensible, entirely within Middlesex on the south banks of the Raritan.

40: WOODBRIDGE. Just Woodbridge!  Population 99,585.  Obama 57.0%, Dem 58.3%.  54.0 W/14.1 H/21.3 A.  Lean D, minority influence.  Easiest district to draw after Cape May, and another reason the chops have to be concentrated in southern Middlesex.

41: EDISON-METUCHEN. Metuchen, Edison (part).  Population 99,585.  Obama 61.3%, Dem 58.8%, 45.0 W/40.5 A.  Safe D, Asian opportunity.  Edison by itself is perfectly district-sized, but it also surrounds Metuchen.  So I had to excise part of Edison, and in doing so made a district which is plurality Asian (I believe primarily Indian/Pakistani) by total population.  

42: PISCATAWAY. Piscataway, Highland Park, Middlesex, Edison (part).  Population 98,796.  Obama 65.7%, Dem 63.5%.  48.6 W/13.4 B/10.7 H/25.2 A.  Safe D, minority influence.  I considered calling this one "Rutgers", as while the state university is nominally in New Brunswick, most of its campus is actually in Piscataway.  Also, all the Rutgers profs live in Highland Park.

43: PLAINFIELD. From Middlesex: South Plainfield, Dunellen.  From Union: Plainfield.  From Somerset: North Plainfield.  Population 102,356.  Obama 74.1%, Dem 68.8 %.  31.1 W/29.6 B/31.9 H.  Safe D, minority opportunity.  This is the infamous three-county district.  But just take a look at the towns it comprises and tell me isn't cohesive.

44: RARITAN SOUTH-MILLSTONE. Hillsborough, Manville, Millstone, Franklin (part).  Population 104,343.  Obama 60.1%, Dem 54.8%.  58.6 W/15.4 B/10.4 H/13.9 A.  Lean D.  Actually, it's most of Franklin.  I went with rivers rather than towns for the name here.

45: BRIDGEWATER-RARITAN NORTH. South River, Bridgewater, Raritan, Somverville, Bound Brook, South Bound Brook, Green Brook, Watchung.  Population 105,871.  Obama 47.0%, Dem 42.3 %.  69.1 W/13.0 H/12.8 A. Safe R.  

46: WATCHUNG WEST. From Somerset: Bridgewater, Peapack-Gladstone, Far Hills, Bernards, Bernardsville, Warren.  From Morris: Long Hill, Chatham (twp. and boro), Madison.  Population 105,297.  Obama 44.1%, Dem 38.2%, White 82.8%.  Safe R.  Even though Watchung is in #45, the Watchung Mountain appelation seemed more apropos here.  It crosses county lines, but northern Somerset and Morris are basically the same McMansionland, so this seemed like the right place to do it.

[traininthedistance]

Part three!



Union only has three districts to itself; there's also the Plainfield district and two others it has to share.

47: CARTERET-LINDEN-ROSELLE.  From Middlesex: Carteret.  From Union: Linden, Winfield, Roselle, Roselle Park.  Population 99,196.  Obama 70%, Dem 68.8%.  42.2 W/24.2 B/24.8 H.  Safe D, minority influence.  The existence of Woodbridge strands Carteret, and this is the only way to make the numbers work without splitting towns.  If I was being strict about the VRA this might not pass muster.

48: SOUTH UNION. Clark, Rahway, Scotch Plains, Fanwood, Cranford, Kenilworth.  Population 103,469.  Obama 53.9%, Dem 51.7%.  71.9 W/11.3 B/10.8 H.  Swing.  The original plan had Westfield instead of Cranford and Kenilworth, which looked better but then I realized that #51 was bisected by a park with no road connection.  So I just went with this U-shaped thing instead.

49: ELIZABETH  Elizabeth (part).  Population 100,690.  Obama 71.3%, Dem 68.9%.  20.5 W/15.2 B/60.5 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  Downtown Elizabeth is actually in #52, but most of it's here.

50: UNION-HILLSIDE-WEEQUAHIC.  From Union: Union, Hillside.  From Essex: the Weequahic section of Newark.  Obama 77.5%, Dem 74.2%.  32.9 W/46.1 B/12.5 H.  Safe D, black opportunity.  In addition to its two whole districts, this is the first of three to dip into Newark.  This may be one more than absolutely necessary (#52 has to be what it is because Bayonne is so isolated), but it leaves exactly enough room for one more Union district and is possibly mandated by the VRA anyway, so I like it.

51: WATCHUNG EAST.  Summit, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, Springfield, Mountainside, Westfield, Garwood.  Population 103,855.  Obama 50.4%, Dem 47.1%, White 81.4%.  Lean R.  The rest of Union, mostly its hilly rich parts.



In addition to #50, Essex is home to six whole districts and three parts; Hudson has five whole districts and two parts, one of them the same Bayonne corner district.

52: BAYONNE-EWR.  From Union: Elizabeth (part).  From Essex: Newark (part).  From Hudson: Bayonne.  Population 98,290.  Obama 58.6%, Dem 63.5%.  45.7 W/18.2 B/29.0 H.  Safe D, minority influence.  Bayonne is stuck in a corner, and putting the rest of the district would force Jersey City to take on four districts, not an ideal plan.  By appending the rest of Elizabeth, and enough of Newark to connect the two parts, mostly the industrial port and airport sections, we can make Hudson County much neater.  The vast majority of NJ's districts have a higher Obama % than Dem %, this is probably the starkest exception.

53: NEWARK NORTH AND EAST.  Parts of Newark.  Population 104,110.  Obama 85.5%, Dem 84.5%.  24.3 W/16.9 B/ 52.0 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  The Ironbound, most of the North Ward (Bloomfield Ave is the dividing line), and enough of downtown to connect the two.  The election figures are off, because the entire Ironbound is missing votes.

54: NEWARK CENTRAL.  Parts of Newark.  Population 103,325.  Obama 96.2%, Dem 94.2%, 62.5 B/27.8 H.  Safe D, black opportunity.  No way to avoid the packing here, especially if you also want a Hispanic district in Newark.
 
55: SOUTH ESSEX.  Irvington, Maplewood, Millburn.  Population 97,942.  Obama 82.4%, Dem 72.7%, 29.9 W/56.1 B.  Safe D, black opportunity.  Of the three black-majority districts in New Jersey (all of them entirely within Essex!), this is the only one which isn't hilariously overpacked.

56: EAST ORANGE-VAILSBURG.  East Orange, the Vailsburg section of Newark.  Population 98,065.  Obama 97.9%, Dem 95.4%, 84.3% black.  Safe D, to call it "black opportunity" would be, um, an understatement.  Way too packed for fairness, but there's nothing to do unless you want to split more towns.

57: ORANGE.  Orange, South Orange, West Orange, Verona.  Population 105,871.  Obama 73.1%, Dem 70.5%.  44.5 W/34.2 B/13.9 H.  Safe D, black influence.  I'd rather not have Cedar Grove and Verona in separate districts (I made sure to keep the similar pairs of Bloomfield/Montclair and Belleville/Nutley together), but that's how the population worked out.

58: BLOOMFIELD-MONTCLAIR.  Bloomfield, Montclair, Glen Ridge, Cedar Grove.  Population 104,922.  Obama 68.8%, Dem 65.3%.  60.2 W/17.6 B/13.5 H.  Safe D.  I grew up here, and will thus defend to the death the unalienable right of Bloomfield and Montclair to be unsplit and in the same district in every single map, ever. 

59: WEST ESSEX From Essex: Livingston, Roseland, Essex Fells, Caldwell, West Caldwell, North Caldwell, Fairfield.  Population 101,577.  Obama 44.4%, Dem 45.4%, 81.4 W/11.3 A.  Safe R.  From Morris: Montville, Lincoln Park.  Yeah, there's a bit of Morris in the "West Essex" district, it's unfortunate.  I would have rather found a way to keep West Essex entirely within Essex and push these districts east, but that would have screwed up what is a very nice Bergen and Hudson map.

60: GIANTS STADIUM. From Essex: Nutley, Belleville.  From Bergen: Rutherford, East Rutherford, Lyndhurst (part).  Population 99,517.  Obama 52.2%, Dem 53.5%.  62.4 W/20.7 H/11.1 A.  Swing.  This is basically a leftovers district, and after #31 it's the one I'm least happy with.  The split of Lyndhurst is necessary to prevent horrible lines in Hudson, or further splits in Essex outside of Newark, but even so this district is kinda ugly.  It is a reasonably good CoI, as all of these towns have historically been heavily Italian; of course this is also true of most of their neighbors.  Basically Nutley/Belleville and the Rutherfords obviously belong together, but then the half-of-Lyndhurst connection is awkward.  And I don't care if  the Jets whined and MetLife bought the naming rights.  It's still Giants Stadium to me.

61: JERSEY CITY SOUTH.  Parts of Jersey City.  Population 97,207.  Obama 86.8%, Dem 84.6%.  12.6 W/45.9 B/22.4 H/15.4 A.  Safe D, black opportunity.  One of the most diverse districts in the state.

62: JERSEY CITY NORTH.  Parts of Jersey City.  Population 103,510.  Obama 77.6%, Dem 74.8%.  26.1 W/34.0 H/26.8 A.  Safe D, minority opportunity.  Could easily elect a white, hispanic, or Asian candidate.

63: GOLD COAST.  Parts of Jersey City (downtown, Pavonia/Newport), Hoboken.  Population 96,885.  Obama 72.1%, Dem 70.7%.  58.3 W/13.7 H/22.1 A.  Safe D.  The Turnpike extension is a neat dividing line between downtown and waterfront JC, and adding it to Hoboken makes an easy district.

64: UNION CITY.  Union City, Weehawken, North Bergen (part).  Population 100,189. Obama 74.3%, Dem 75.1%, 17.9 W/75.0 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  Given the manner in which North Bergen and Jersey City surround Union City/Hoboken/West New York/Guttenberg, a town split is absolutely unavoidable here.  Splitting North Bergen makes the most sense.

65: NORTH HUDSON.  West New York, Guttenberg, North Bergen (part).  Population 100,477. Obama 71.0%, Dem 71.8%, 20.1 W/70.2 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  The partner to #64, neatly going up to the county line.

66: MEADOWLANDS SOUTH.  Harrison, East Newark, Kearny, Secaucus, North Arlington, Lyndhurst (part).  Population 100,673.  Obama 56.7%, Dem 60.0%, 55.6 W/29.7 H.  Lean D.  The more suburban and swampy portions of Hudson, and the southernmost tip of Bergen, sharing Lyndhurst with #60. 

[traininthedistance]

Part four.




On to Bergen and Passaic.  In addition to the two aforementioned districts which go into Bergen, the state's largest county is home to eight whole districts and one more which it shares with Passaic.  Passaic has four districts of its own, and one with Morris.

67: GARFIELD-LODI.  Garfield, Lodi, Hasbrouck Heights, Elmwood Park, Saddle Brook, Rochelle Park.  Population 105,057.  Obama 54.6%, Dem 56.4%, 66.0 W/21.7 H.  Lean D.  A lot of these Bergen districts are just a collection of indistinguishable inner-suburban boroughs, this might be the most indistinguishable.

68: PALISADES SOUTH.  Bogota, Ridgefield, Ridgefield Park, Palisades Park, Fairview, Cliffside Park, Edgewater.  Population 100,512.  Obama 63.1%, Dem 62.9%. 43.6 W/27.0 H/24.9 A.  Safe D, minority influence.

69: PALISADES NORTH.  Fort Lee, Leonia, Englewood, Englewood Cilffs, Tenafly, Cresskill, Alpine.  Population 101,620.  Obama 64.8%, Dem 65.8%.  48.8 W/13.7 H/26.5 A.  Safe D, Asian influence.  

70: TEANECK-BERGENFIELD.  Teaneck, Bergenfield, New Milford, Dumont.  Population 100,360.  Obama 62.2%, Dem 64.4%.  52.0 W/13.0 B/17.0 H/16.2 A.  Safe D.  Yawn.

71: HACKENSACK-PARAMUS.  Hackensack, Paramus, River Edge, Maywood, Little Ferry.  Population 100,873.  Obama 60.6%, Dem 60.2%.  51.4 W/10.8 B/20.3 H/15.7 A.  Safe D.  This district is, I guess, the "center" of the Bergen districts, not just geographically but also because Hackensack is the county seat (and one of the county's most urban places), whereas Paramus is home to zillions of acres of malls and shopping centers, etc, and is one of the most prominent "edge cities" in NJ.  

72: RIDGEWOOD-FAIR LAWN.  Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Washington, Midland Park, Ho-Ho-Kus, Waldwick.  Population 98,949.  Obama 50.7%, Dem 50.1%, Anglo 82.8%.  Lean R, because I'm rating these conservatively.  

73: PASCACK VALLEY. Oradell, Emerson, Westwood, Hillsdale, Demarest, Haworth, Closter, Norwood, Rockleigh, Northvale, Harrington Park, Old Tappan, River Vale, Park Ridge, Montvale.  Population 100,586.  Obama 47.5%, Dem 46.5%, 78.3 W/13.7 A.  Lean R, though I guess you could make a case for "safe".  Ain't boroughitis grand?

74: NORTH BERGEN.  Woodcliff Lake, Saddle River, Upper Saddle River, Ramsey, Mahwah, Allendale, Oakland, Franklin Lakes, Wyckoff.  Population 103,992.  Obama 41.9%, Dem 39.3%, White 86.1%.  Safe R.  This end of Bergen County, at least, is free of splits.  And if one has to choose, this is the end where not splitting is more important, because of the physical boundary that is Campgaw Mountain.

75: PASSAIC-NORTH MEADOWLANDS From Bergen: South Hackensack, Teterboro, Woodridge, Moonachie, Carlstadt, Wallington. From Passaic: Passaic.  Population 100,022.  Obama 64.0%, Dem 65.0%, 36.0 W/50.9 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  The geography of Clifton ensures that Passaic's district must reach into Bergen if we want to avoid town splits, and this chunk of the Meadowlands conveniently is big enough.  It also effectively deals with the weirdness that is South Hackensack.

76: CLIFTON-LITTLE FALLS.  Clifton and Little Falls!  Population 98,568.  Obama 57.0%, Dem 55.7%, 60.6 W/25.7 H.  Lean D, Hispanic influence.  Clifton is sort of like those Central Jersey towns in that it's big enough to cause problems, but this district doesn't have them.  The "problems" are Passaic going east (which is actually fine) and ripple effects leading to the Lyndhurst split (which isn't great).

77: PATERSON. Parts of Paterson.  Population 97,415.  Obama 90.8%, Dem 88.4%, 30.9 B/57.8 H.  Safe D, Hispanic opportunity.  I don't actually know what's the best way to split Paterson, this line seems to work with the set of towns the other district has to add.

78: GREAT FALLS.  Parts of Paterson (including the Great Falls historic site), Haledon, North Haledon, Hawthorne, Woodland Park (née West Paterson). Population 101,994. 43.9 W/13.9 B/35.6 H.  Safe D, Hispanic influence.  I don't know if it's actually possible to split things here in such a way as to have an all-Paterson district and another one which is also likely to elect a minority.  Whatever, clean lines are more important for this particular exercise.

79: WAYNE-POMPTON.  Totowa, Wayne, Pompton Lakes, Ringwood, Wanaque.  Population 99,962.  Obama 44.3%, Dem 44.9%, White 82.6%.  Safe R.  Passaic is a county that I don't mind splitting, given its wasp-waist around Pompton Lakes and the fact the two sides are just so different.  But bridging the gap is what ended up happening, oh well. The northern half just isn't large enough for a whole district, and Wayne is somewhat more suburban anyway.



And finally, Morris and northwest NJ!  We've gone through the Morris-Somerset and Morris-Essex districts, still here are three all-Morris districts and the Morris-Passaic district, which is mostly Morris.  Each of the outlying rural counties- Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon has one district entirely in its boundaries, and #87 mops up the last leftovers from Morris and the other three.

80: PEQUANNOCK.  From Passaic: West Milford, Bloomingdale.  From Morris: Pequannock, Riverdale, Butler, Kinnelon, Boonton Twp., Denville, Mountain Lakes, Rockaway Boro.  Population 101,888.  Obama 42.0%, Dem 39.3%, White 88.6%.  Safe R.  One of the weirder-looking districts here; this proved to be the best way to work around the West Essex leftovers and not make the all-Morris districts too horrible.

81: PARSIPPANY.  Boonton, Parsippany-Troy Hills, Morris Plains, Hanover, East Hanover, Florham Park.  Population 103,682.  Obama 45.3%, Dem 42.5%, 70.2 W/18.6 A.  Safe R.

82: CENTRAL MORRIS.  Morris, Morristown, Harding, Mendham (twp. and boro), Randolph, Victory Gardens, Dover.  Population 100,816.  Obama 52.5%, Dem 47.2%, 63.8 W/24.0 H.  Lean R.  The only district in any part of any of these four counties to vote Obama.

83: ROCKAWAY-ROXBURY.  Rockaway, Jefferson, Roxbury, Mt. Arlington, Netcong, Wharton, Mine Hill, Chester (twp. and boro).  Population 96,736.  Obama 42.7%, Dem 39.8%, 81.6 W/10.4 H.  Safe R.

84: SUSSEX.  Sparta, Ogdensburg, Franklin, Hamburg, Hardyston, Vernon, Sussex, Wantage, Montague, Sandyston, Frankford, Lafayette, Hampton, Fredon, Stillwater, Walpack.  Population 104,078.  Obama 38.5%, Dem 35.4%, White 91.7%.  Safe R, the most Republican district in the state.

85: HUNTERDON.  East Amwell, Raritan, Flemington, Readington, Tewksbury, Lebanon, Clinton (town and two.), High Bridge, Franklin, Kingwood, Franchtown, Alexandria, Milford, Holland, Bethlehem, Bloomsbury, Hampton, Union.  Population 106,134.  Obama 41.2%, Dem 35.2%, White 88.1.  Safe R.  This is the overpopulated district, at +5078.  I tweaked things as much as I could in this corner (which obviously I did last) to get it under 5000 without splitting towns or sacrificing the entirely-within-county districts out here, this is as close as I could manage.

86: WARREN.  All of Warren EXCEPT for Allamuchy.  Population 104,369.  Obama 42.8%, Dem 39.0%, White 87.6%.  Safe R.

87: HOPATCONG-MOUNT OLIVE From Warren: Allamuchy.  From Hunterdon: Lebanon, Glen Gardner, Califon.  From Morris: Washington, Mount Olive.  From Sussex: Green, Andover, Newton, Byram, Stanhope. Hopatcong.  Population 105,528. Obama 41.6%, Dem 36.9%, White 85.1%.  Safe R.


And finally, some stats!

23 Safe R
5 Lean R
8 Swing
12 Lean D
39 Safe D
Obviously these numbers are not exact.

22 districts have a significant shot at minority representation:
4 nearly sure to elect a black rep (26, 54, 55, 56; Trenton, Newark, East Orange/Newark, Irvington etc.)
6 nearly sure to elect a Hispanic rep (49, 53, 64, 65, 75, 77; Elizabeth, Newark, two in north Hudson, Passaic, Paterson)
1 nearly sure to elect a black or Hispanic rep (13; Camden)
4 have a decent chance of electing a black rep (16, 50, 57, 61; Burlco, Union/Newark, Oranges, JC)
2 have a decent chance of electing a Hispanic rep (36 and 78; Amboys and Paterson area)
2 have a decent chance of electing an Asian rep (38 and 41; southern Middlesex and Edison)
3 have a decent chance of electing any one of multiple minorities (39, 43, and 62; New Brunswick, Plainfields, and Jersey City)


...Whew.

[traininthedistance]

You should call the Hempstead SW district "Five Towns".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Towns