Kadima 2012 primaries

[danny]

Previous election results (2008):
Livni 43.1% (16,936 votes)
Mofaz 42% (16,505 votes)
sheetrit 8.5% (3,327 votes)
Dichter 6.5% (2,563 votes)

The coming election will be on the 27/3/12, the candidates are Livni, Mofaz and Dichter.
Mofaz has been trying to have a new primary election for a long time but Livni refused. she was eventually forced into these elections after the Likud had its own primary.
Mofaz and Livni don't seem to have many policy differences, and this election is mostly about personality. Despite that, the two really hate each other and it is quite likely that the loser will leave the party.
The elections should be close again, but I would give the edge to Mofaz right now

[Vosem]

Despite that, the two really hate each other and it is quite likely that the loser will leave the party.

And go where, I may ask? Their own party? Labour? Likud? Independence? The apparently-soon-to-be-reestablished-Shinui? One of the smaller parties? Retirement?

[danny]

Despite that, the two really hate each other and it is quite likely that the loser will leave the party.

And go where, I may ask? Their own party? Labour? Likud? Independence? The apparently-soon-to-be-reestablished-Shinui? One of the smaller parties? Retirement?

This is Israeli politics so anything can happen, but if I had to guess then I'd say that Livni is more likely to retire while Mofaz strikes me as the kind of person that will always try to stay in politics somehow, although I can't think of any party that would want him right now. So he could possibly start his own party.
As for the new Lapid party he has promised not to include any current politicians in it (although it is possible that he was lying).
And I doubt The Independence party will run on its own independent list, it is more likely to become part of Likud.

[danny]

Sheetrit has endorsed Mofaz, as have some vote bundlers whom supported Livni in the previous primaries. At this point I would be surprised if Livni wins this.

[danny]

More good news for Mofaz, Dichter is withdrawing from the race and endorsing him.

So it's now a two way race between Livni and Mofaz

[danny]

Polls have closed, turnout was 45% of 95,000 total Kadima members.

[danny]

Full results should come in the morning, but it's looking like Mofaz will win this pretty easily.

[RogueBeaver]

Full results should come in the morning, but it's looking like Mofaz will win this pretty easily.

And the Israeli centre-left's implosion continues...

[ag]

Final results:

Mofaz 61.5%
Livni 38.5%

[RogueBeaver]

Final results:

Mofaz 61.5%
Livni 38.5%

BURN

[ag]

Full results should come in the morning, but it's looking like Mofaz will win this pretty easily.

And the Israeli centre-left's implosion continues...

Kadima wasn't supposed to be center-left. Remember, it was founded by Ariel Sharon: it was supposed to be center-ultra-right )

[Sibboleth]

Kadima will be whatever you want it to be.

[RogueBeaver]

Full results should come in the morning, but it's looking like Mofaz will win this pretty easily.

And the Israeli centre-left's implosion continues...

Kadima wasn't supposed to be center-left. Remember, it was founded by Ariel Sharon: it was supposed to be center-ultra-right )

With Lab gone, Kadima was the last opposition party capable of forming government. Perhaps Israel moves even closer to a dominant party system... or as close as they can get in that clusterfook of a political arena with batshoot coalition partners like YB.

[ag]

Full results should come in the morning, but it's looking like Mofaz will win this pretty easily.

And the Israeli centre-left's implosion continues...

Kadima wasn't supposed to be center-left. Remember, it was founded by Ariel Sharon: it was supposed to be center-ultra-right )

With Lab gone, Kadima was the last opposition party capable of forming government. Perhaps Israel moves even closer to a dominant party system... or as close as they can get in that clusterfook of a political arena with batshoot coalition partners like YB.

In the absence of Kadima, Labor will, eventually recover somewhat, perhaps as part of some new coalition. The right will, of course, easily win the next election - but that would have happened even if Kadima were still around. Likud is anything but a "dominant party" - polls show it struggling to get even 1/3 of the seats. It is just the fragmentation of the rest that is making it so far ahead in the polls.  Not having the moderate vote split between Kadima and Labor will only allow emergence of a single pole on the other side.

Longer-term, of course, the proportion of ultra-orthodox and of the Arab vote is likely to grow, making it likely that the sorts of governments we are going to see are going to be increasingly unpleasant. I can't say I envy the sort of Israelis I sympathize with - but, in the end, it's their problem, not mine. If I were in their place, I'd consider moving somewhere more livable.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Kadima will be whatever you want it to be.

Remember the United Atlas Centrists? Kadima kind of reminds me of them.

[danny]

Now that the 3 big democratic parties have had elections in the last year the results can be compared.

Party totals:
Likud: 63,150 votes (50.4% turnout)
Labour (round 2): 41,483 votes (62.1% turnout)
Kadima: 40,399 votes

candidates:

Netanyahu: 48,490
Mofaz: 24,780
Yehimovich: 22,257
Peretz: 18,822
Livni: 14,857
Feiglin: 14,660

Wow, I didn't realize until now that Livni failed so badly she got less votes than Feiglin did.
Edit: apparently there were a few votes missing from those maps, so Livni did get slightly more than Feiglin, but it's still bad.