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Author Topic: Polls for caucuses states  (Read 1341 times)
Adele is pudgy!
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« on: December 21, 2011, 08:34:03 am »
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How are primary polls made for states holding caucuses or closed primaries?
It would be illogical to survey random persons.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2011, 08:43:03 am »
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Pollsters screen people by their likelyhood to vote or ask them if they have voted in previous caucuses. If these people say 8/9/10 on a scale, you have a good sample of who is likely to vote.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2011, 06:32:02 am »
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Actually, to speed processing and keep costs down to acceptable levels while maintaining sufficient numbers of respondents to give provide statistical validity, a number of pollsters use panels.

These panels allow comparison of choices over time.

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Adele is pudgy!
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2011, 07:43:49 pm »
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Pollsters screen people by their likelyhood to vote or ask them if they have voted in previous caucuses. If these people say 8/9/10 on a scale, you have a good sample of who is likely to vote.

Actually, to speed processing and keep costs down to acceptable levels while maintaining sufficient numbers of respondents to give provide statistical validity, a number of pollsters use panels.
These panels allow comparison of choices over time.

You both have to admit that polls only make sense when they are about open primaries.

Surveys about caucuses and/or closed primaries are rather useless.
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SmugDealer
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« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2011, 11:06:43 pm »
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Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2011, 11:14:03 pm »
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Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.

Until the last few days, that is.  In 2008, Zogby (of all people!) managed to nail both of the Dem and GOP caucuses in Iowa in his final poll there.  ARG (!!) also nailed the GOP side (but screwed up on the Dems), while Insider Advantage nailed the Dems (but didn't poll the GOP side).
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2011, 12:09:43 am »
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Caucuses are notoriously hard to poll. Polls for the Iowa Caucus are often very far off.

Until the last few days, that is.  In 2008, Zogby (of all people!) managed to nail both of the Dem and GOP caucuses in Iowa in his final poll there.  ARG (!!) also nailed the GOP side (but screwed up on the Dems), while Insider Advantage nailed the Dems (but didn't poll the GOP side).

not to mention.  Selzer & Co.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2011, 07:05:25 pm »
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How are primary polls made for states holding caucuses or closed primaries?
It would be illogical to survey random persons.

They call random people, ask their partisan affiliation, often apply a likely voter screen (as mentioned above), then only actually poll the people who are likely to vote and properly registered to do so.
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