GA PrimR: Insider Advantage: Gingrich, Romney & Santorum could all win Georgia

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Insider Advantage on 2012-02-20

Summary:

Gingrich:	26%
Romney:	24%
Santorum:	23%
Paul:	12%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

If Gingrich loses GA, he should really drop out and endorse Santorum.

[Badger]

If Gingrich loses GA, he should really drop out and endorse Santorum.

[© tweed]

this looks way more right than the other GA poll, Romney has a 25%ish floor here

[Likely Voter]

I wonder how much a split decision of Santorum winning MI and Romney winning AZ and Gingrich coming in 3rd (4th?) in each will effect GA. Probably nothing big, but perhaps enough to knock him into 2nd.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Georgia was basically a 3-way tie in 2008 between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney.

[Eraserhead]

If Romney wins here, he's the nominee. I don't think he'll pay enough attention to it to pull it off though. I think if Santorum wins MI or AZ, he'll win here. If not, I think Gingrich may very well surge again and carry it easily (he probably has a pre-baked lead among early voters anyway).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Romney wins here, he's the nominee. I don't think he'll pay enough attention to it to pull it off though. I think if Santorum wins MI or AZ, he'll win here. If not, I think Gingrich may very well surge again and carry it easily (he probably has a pre-baked lead among early voters anyway).

Nope.  If the only other states Romney carries on Super Tuesday are Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virgina, the narrative of a Georgia win will be that he won here only because Gingrich took a large share of the anti-Romney vote away from Santorum.  Ohio is far more crucial to Romney's Super Tuesday hopes, and I expect Romney and Santorum to be in Ohio that night. Gingrich of course will be in Georgia that night, and who knows where Paul will be.

[Eraserhead]

If Romney wins here, he's the nominee. I don't think he'll pay enough attention to it to pull it off though. I think if Santorum wins MI or AZ, he'll win here. If not, I think Gingrich may very well surge again and carry it easily (he probably has a pre-baked lead among early voters anyway).

Nope.  If the only other states Romney carries on Super Tuesday are Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virgina, the narrative of a Georgia win will be that he won here only because Gingrich took a large share of the anti-Romney vote away from Santorum.  Ohio is far more crucial to Romney's Super Tuesday hopes, and I expect Romney and Santorum to be in Ohio that night. Gingrich of course will be in Georgia that night, and who knows where Paul will be.

Disagree. I think this would be a huge win for Romney if he pulls it off as he was never expected to. Of course, the race will technically carry on if Santorum wins Ohio and a couple of other states, but Romney would almost certainly win out in the end. Also, I fully expect Romney to be in Massachusetts on election night out of respect for his earliest backers and because it will be a surefire victory party over there.

Now, if Romney loses GA (and especially if Gingrich wins it), which I still expect him to, then OH will probably be seen as "crucial state" of the night.

[Wisconsin+17]

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With the vote in WY - and Santorum within the MOE in AZ - ID will go Santorum too. So that leaves Mitt with MA, VT and VA by default.

He's not going to win GA. The undecideds are likely going to break Santorum, then Gingrich, before they break Romney.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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With the vote in WY - and Santorum within the MOE in AZ - ID will go Santorum too. So that leaves Mitt with MA, VT and VA by default.

Santorum's gonna beat Romney in the second most mormon state in the country? I seriously doubt that.

[Wisconsin+17]

He's very close in WY - and that's only because Paul is doing so well.

I don't think Paul is going to do as strongly in Idaho, and that's going to drive more votes to Santorum.

[Eraserhead]

He's very close in WY - and that's only because Paul is doing so well.

I don't think Paul is going to do as strongly in Idaho, and that's going to drive more votes to Santorum.

The Mormon vote is way bigger in Idaho than it is in Wyoming. Plus, Paul did really, really well in Idaho in 2008. I can't see why he wouldn't do well this year.