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Author Topic: MI PrimR: Rasmussen: Santorum by 3  (Read 859 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 14, 2012, 02:12:00 pm »
New Poll: Michigan President by Rasmussen on 2012-02-13

Summary:
Santorum:
35%
Romney:
32%
Paul:
13%
Gingrich:
11%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2012, 02:13:19 pm »
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Hmm, Romney surging after Maine, or PPP poll is an outlier, or this poll is an outlier?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2012, 02:14:50 pm »
I think this poll "looks the most correct" out of the last 3.
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2012, 02:16:33 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on February 14, 2012, 02:14:50 pm
I think this poll "looks the most correct" out of the last 3.

Yeah, PPP seems like an outlier here; as Nate Silver pointed out it has 48% of respondents being evangelicals, which doesn't seem like Michigan.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2012, 02:18:34 pm »
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I liked PPP's poll better. Sad
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2012, 02:27:02 pm »
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Quote from: wormyguy on February 14, 2012, 02:16:33 pm
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 14, 2012, 02:14:50 pm
I think this poll "looks the most correct" out of the last 3.

Yeah, PPP seems like an outlier here; as Nate Silver pointed out it has 48% of respondents being evangelicals, which doesn't seem like Michigan.

Seemingly, in 2008, evangelicals comprised 39% of Michigan GOP primary voters

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/romney-s-evangelical-problem-20110519
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2012, 02:38:33 pm »
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Quote from: Democratic Hawk on February 14, 2012, 02:27:02 pm
Quote from: wormyguy on February 14, 2012, 02:16:33 pm
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 14, 2012, 02:14:50 pm
I think this poll "looks the most correct" out of the last 3.

Yeah, PPP seems like an outlier here; as Nate Silver pointed out it has 48% of respondents being evangelicals, which doesn't seem like Michigan.

Seemingly, in 2008, evangelicals comprised 39% of Michigan GOP primary voters

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/romney-s-evangelical-problem-20110519

But it's not like you'd expect there to be more evangelicals now (especially since there isn't a Democratic primary at the same time).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2012, 03:02:06 pm »
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Quote from: wormyguy on February 14, 2012, 02:38:33 pm
Quote from: Democratic Hawk on February 14, 2012, 02:27:02 pm
Quote from: wormyguy on February 14, 2012, 02:16:33 pm
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 14, 2012, 02:14:50 pm
I think this poll "looks the most correct" out of the last 3.

Yeah, PPP seems like an outlier here; as Nate Silver pointed out it has 48% of respondents being evangelicals, which doesn't seem like Michigan.

Seemingly, in 2008, evangelicals comprised 39% of Michigan GOP primary voters

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/romney-s-evangelical-problem-20110519

But it's not like you'd expect there to be more evangelicals now (especially since there isn't a Democratic primary at the same time).

There wasn't a "real" Democratic primary last time either.

Anyway, PPP was also an outlier with the Santorum surge among the national polls, so this isn't too surprising.
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2012, 03:06:27 pm »
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It makes more sense that Santorum has a small lead than a huge lead. Romney has ties to MI, won in 2008 and has been running ads already.

It will be interesting to see how Romney runs his campaign in MI. Will he (and his SuperPAC) go all scorched earth to stop Santorum?
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2012, 03:16:08 pm »
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Quote from: Severe Voter on February 14, 2012, 03:06:27 pm
It makes more sense that Santorum has a small lead than a huge lead. Romney has ties to MI, won in 2008 and has been running ads already.

It will be interesting to see how Romney runs his campaign in MI. Will he (and his SuperPAC) go all scorched earth to stop Santorum?

If he is smart, he will make a direct connection between his business experience and differential decision making versus Obama and how it would have lead to more jobs.

Also, he should get ahead of the "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" attack and turn it into a postive, rather than a negative.

He is giving an "economic speech" on the 24th in Michigan. It is said he will either release a new economic plan or reintroduce his previous one in more concise fashion.

He needs to stop assuming people will automatically link his soundbites to job creation, and instead state how it will create jobs.

The last thing he should do is make a firm link between the debt and long term job creation, because Obama will try to decouple and set them up against one another.
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2012, 04:12:08 pm »
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Romney is going to win in a landslide. Dammit.
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2012, 08:57:18 pm »
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It probably won't be a landslide, but I predict Romney will win Michigan, and end this sudden interest in Santorum.
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2012, 09:16:35 pm »
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Yea, that PPP showing Santorum winning by 15 is a real gift to the Dems. But it will be close with a Romney win.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2012, 03:44:38 pm »
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It seems that both PPP polls you dismissed are correct.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2012, 01:11:13 pm »
A new one is out in 1 hour.
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2012, 01:54:38 pm »
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I predict Romney's leading by 1 or 2
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My evolution:
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13
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