E: -2.52, S: -4.43
I proposed my own Option which eliminates the problem of needing a choose a frontrunner.
But if the train has already left the station, then I think the leader on Intrade is better than the leader of the delegate count. The former is intelligent, whereas the latter is not. If the two differ, then Intrade traders, who have access to public delegate projections, must know something that leads them to conclude the delegate count does not reflect who will be the nominee. For example, candidate A has a small lead in the delegate count, but in the five remaining primary states, candidate B has a landslide lead in the polls due to a late-breaking scandal. Not only this, but candidate B has won the last 5 primaries in a landslide since the scandal broke. Candidate A's delegate count lead is an artificial reflection of her massive early, pre-scandal victories from months ago. In other words, the delegate count is already taken into consideration by the Intrade traders.