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Author Topic: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread  (Read 15531 times)
realisticidealist
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« on: February 23, 2012, 11:58:41 pm »
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To start off:

"Santorum up big on first night of our Wisconsin poll, suggests debate at least didn't hurt him nationally"
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2012, 12:05:06 am »
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Good idea for the Twitter-averse Smiley
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Lief
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2012, 12:13:05 am »
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Yeah, the only reason Michigan is close is because it's Romney's "home" state. He's going to get rocked in the rest of the Midwest.
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2012, 06:11:09 am »
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Excellent. Congrats Phil.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2012, 12:47:33 pm »
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One-day MI and AZ numbers expected out late tonight.
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2012, 01:13:15 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Kenobi on February 24, 2012, 06:11:09 am
Excellent. Congrats Phil.

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2012, 06:47:26 pm »
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"Early observations on today's polls: Michigan still pretty close, but Romney headed for a huge win in Arizona"

"It looks like Romney has banked about a 30 point lead among early voters in Arizona and they're more than half the electorate"
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2012, 09:53:45 pm »
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Mitt has a "very small lead" in Michigan.
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2012, 10:27:55 pm »
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Quote from: realisticidealist on February 26, 2012, 09:53:45 pm
Mitt has a "very small lead" in Michigan.

Romney 39-37

I'm not sure how to post in the polls thread.
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2012, 08:18:49 pm »
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When is the final PPP poll coming out? Heard it will have good news for frothy.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2012, 08:19:25 pm »
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Quote from: Progressive on February 27, 2012, 08:18:49 pm
When is the final PPP poll coming out? Heard it will have good news for frothy.

Between 10 and 11 pm ET.
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2012, 10:12:48 pm »
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We'll miss you PPP! Sad
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2012, 10:15:23 pm »
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Top-lines in 15 minutes from the date stamp on my post supposedly from PPP. Meanwhile, Rick is pushing hard for Dems to vote for him to keep it all going. He's doing operation backdoor himself. Can't blame him of course, but it will give Mittens an alibi if he loses to Rick by a tad in Michigan. He will just say enough Democrats voted in the Pub primary in hopes that a weaker candidate will face Obama, or to keep the demolition derby going hurting all Pubs.

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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2012, 10:19:00 pm »
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But Rick is asking for Dem votes in earnest- that his economic brand is more inclusive. Do Republicans think they can win Michigan in the general without peeling off Democratic votes? Really?
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2012, 10:23:04 pm »
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Quote from: Torie on February 27, 2012, 10:15:23 pm
Top-lines in 15 minutes from the date stamp on my post supposedly from PPP. Meanwhile, Rick is pushing hard for Dems to vote for him to keep it all going. He's doing operation backdoor himself. Can't blame him of course, but it will give Mittens an alibi if he loses to Rick by a tad in Michigan. He will just say enough Democrats voted in the Pub primary in hopes that a weaker candidate will face Obama, or to keep the demolition derby going hurting all Pubs.


A win is a win. And if victorious in Romney's "home state," it's quite embarrassing.
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2012, 10:28:35 pm »
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Santorum is winning 39 to 34 from yesterday
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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2012, 12:48:12 am »
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says ppp:

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Romney with a small lead on first night of our Washington poll. Represents big change from 2 weeks ago, reflecting national shift

It's over! The goose is cooked! I tried to tell you guys last night on the chat, but no one would listen! Romney has it all in the bag now. He's going to win Washington, win all but maybe Georgia and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday, and that'll be it. Game over.
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« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2012, 12:53:06 am »
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He lead in Colorado too.  Santorum has outperformed the polls in caucus states so far.  To declare him dead based on one poll is ridiculous.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2012, 01:06:03 am »
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Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.
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« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2012, 01:07:16 am »
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Hoping for a Paul surge, just for funs.
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« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2012, 02:03:22 am »
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Yeah, he'll basically lock this thing up on Super Tuesday if he can win 7 or 8 out of 10.
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bgwah
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« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2012, 02:15:59 am »
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Quote from: realisticidealist on March 01, 2012, 01:06:03 am
Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.

Yeah, I'm skeptical. There aren't any pollsters with experience polling a GOP caucus here (they've always polled the primary in the past).

And of course Romney under performed PPP's numbers in MN and CO.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2012, 02:21:17 am »
What was turnout like in CO and MN, as compared to NV?  Because I recall Mark Blumenthal commenting on how useless caucus polling tends to be for the especially low turnout cases.  I'm wondering if CO and MN had lower turnout than NV, and wondering if that explains why PPP's polling did better in NV than the other two.
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« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2012, 02:29:11 am »
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Quote from: realisticidealist on March 01, 2012, 01:06:03 am
Caucus polling dude, plus it sounds like they oversampled Mormons by a lot.

I could see Mormons composing 8-10% of the caucus-frequenting electorate but 15%? No way.
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« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2012, 02:55:35 am »
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Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.
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