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Author Topic: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread  (Read 17084 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2012, 04:21:23 am »
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Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.
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« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2012, 04:47:19 am »
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Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.

Just like it didn't subside after his Florida/Nevada wins?
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« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2012, 11:43:07 am »
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Of course Romney is leading, they polled the state just a day after his Michigan and Arizona triumphs and all the positive coverage he had.


Well, the caucus is on Saturaday. It's not like the positive coverage is going to subside much by then.

Just like it didn't subside after his Florida/Nevada wins?

Most of the coverage about NV dealt with the low turnout and the horrendous vote counting shenanigans. Michigan was a competitive primary in a big state. If Mitt can just keep his trap shut for another day, he should be fine.
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« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2012, 01:05:27 pm »
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The Obama campaign can begin plans for its second inaugural because it appears Willard is now moving ahead in Ohio.  At least, that's what PPP tweeted today.  A Romney win in Ohio ends any hopes of a convention fight or a new candidate.  That means Republicans are stuck with our own version of John Kerry.

Maybe I'm totally misreading the situation, but I see no way Romney can win a general election.  He's shown no ability to mobilize the base and he lacks authenticity.  I've followed this race as closely as anyone and I have no idea what Romney really believes.  In the end, the conservative base will show up for Romney, but will Independents?

Many people, trying to convince themselves all is not lost, note Reagan trailed Carter badly in 1980 and went on to sweep to victory.  That is true, but Reagan was the conservative choice and had the passions of the grass roots.  More importantly though, the political make up of the parties is far different today than they were then.

In 1980, the makeup of the parties was far different.  Both parties had strong liberal and conservative wings.  Today though, the parties are essentially ideologically pure.  There are no conservatives left in the Democrat party just as there are no liberal left in the Republican party.  The hyperpartisan nature of today would probably not have allowed for the Reagan blowouts in 1980 and 1984.

I'm sure there will be moments in the campaign when Romney puts Obama on his heels, but I just don't see Romney ever really challenging Obama.
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Politico
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« Reply #29 on: March 03, 2012, 01:16:21 pm »
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Both sides have 40% no matter what. Romney has no skeletons in the closet, and can win a plurality of the 20% in the middle by appearing safe and competent. Except when you have a Goldwater-like challenger, campaigns involving an incumbent are essentially referendums on the incumbent. $4-5/gallon and underemployment in the 15-20% range with official unemployment over 8% is a losing referendum for the incumbent if his challenger is not perceived as risky. If Obama descends into scorch-and-burn tactics like Bush did in 2004, that is still a battle Romney can win by being negative about the state of things and tying Obama into them (which is something the electorate is already doing without this narrative). Stuff like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K34sHH3xZAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoQ1gged_KI

Outside of that stuff in response to Obama's negative onslaught, Romney can just run positive stuff like this and he'll have little problem seeing Obama lose his referendum:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg3EAdGLDhU

I'll add this: Romney is not a natural politician, and obviously he's not everyman America. However, he does have a passion for driving. It was ingrained in him as a child by virtue of his dad being the head of an automotive company in Detroit. Mitt's love of driving is authentic. And who doesn't like driving in America? The Mitt on the Road ads are going to help with his perceived "authenticity" problem.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 08:16:39 pm by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2012, 01:17:35 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 01:20:13 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2012, 01:20:24 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race.

No, the election will be about choice.

Romney has to actually convince people that he is a legit alternative to Obama, simply not being Obama isn't good enough.
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« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2012, 01:22:59 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

No, he is not. In some polls he is down by 10 points. That is not close at all. He is losing in Virginia and Ohio, two states he need to win to become president. And Obama still has to start campaigning for real.
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« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2012, 01:23:11 pm »
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[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.
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« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2012, 01:26:35 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race.

No, the election will be about choice.

Romney has to actually convince people that he is a legit alternative to Obama, simply not being Obama isn't good enough.

You overestimate how much the 20% in the middle care about "issues." If most of them perceive Romney as NOT risky, that's good enough to bury Obama.
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« Reply #35 on: March 03, 2012, 01:32:26 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.
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Politico
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« Reply #36 on: March 03, 2012, 01:32:26 pm »
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[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.

The 20% in the middle do not care about the fact Romney changed his position on Roe V. Wade. Romney has never flip-flopped on matters of war and peace. John Kerry's "I actually voted for the war before I voted against it" (I know that's not the direct quote) during the middle of a war we were appearing to lose was part of what BARELY did him in.

Good luck creating the narrative of the Mr. Bland of American Politics as a risky scheme. The Obama Team is good, but not THAT good, especially up against Karl Rove and Co.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 01:41:13 pm by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #37 on: March 03, 2012, 01:37:50 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.
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Politico
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« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2012, 01:53:12 pm »
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The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.

Ronald Reagan was tied with Jimmy Carter a week before Election Day. Need I say more?

The polling will probably be tight until the last few days of the campaign. Then it will break heavily to Romney, just like it did for Reagan, once everybody is convinced that Romney is not a risky scheme and things are just too bad to reward Obama with re-election. Romney will probably win around 51-47, simply because Obama's team is so good at organizing, but with the potential of something like 54-44 if it breaks 1980-hard his way.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 02:06:51 pm by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #39 on: March 03, 2012, 01:54:34 pm »
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Newt up big in Georgia. Kinda wish we'd polled Oklahoma instead. Romney with a healthy lead for 2nd over Santorum so far

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Surprise of the day- Tennessee looking much more competitive. Santorum still up but Mitt and Newt within about 5-7 pts
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« Reply #40 on: March 03, 2012, 02:13:12 pm »
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The Newt surge might hit just in time.
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« Reply #41 on: March 03, 2012, 02:35:20 pm »
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Romney is not Reagan.  I know Politico is a huge Romney supporter, but the blinkers are hurting his view of things.  I'm not sure McCain, as bad a candidate as he was, was ever this compromised.  He just ran in a lousy year for Republicans.  Romney is just a lousy candidate.

As for the Newt surge, it just shows conservatives are a stupid voting block.  At the very time they should be using Santorum as a vessel to block Romney, they're shifting slightly back to Newt and thus spliting their influence.
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« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2012, 03:09:29 pm »
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[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]
Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.

The 20% in the middle do not care about the fact Romney changed his position on Roe V. Wade. Romney has never flip-flopped on matters of war and peace. John Kerry's "I actually voted for the war before I voted against it" (I know that's not the direct quote) during the middle of a war we were appearing to lose was part of what BARELY did him in.


If you say so, but what about Obamacare? The PPACA is probably the biggest reason as to why conservatives don't like Obama, and Mitt Romney's flip-flop there certainly won't raise much enthusiasm.
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J. J.
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« Reply #43 on: March 03, 2012, 04:12:56 pm »
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The Newt surge might hit just in time.

I've been saying that for about 24 hours.
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« Reply #44 on: March 04, 2012, 09:30:21 pm »
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PPP saying OH is "incredibly close." Newt might win TN Election day vote but Santorum has too big of an early vote lead.

Toplines out in ten to forty minutes.
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« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2012, 04:55:01 am »

"Romney leading on first night of our NC GOP poll...that seems to me like a real sign this thing might be ready to wrap up"

"Looks like about a 10 point shift from Santorum to Romney in NC even just in the last week"

"Romney has historically done very poorly in our North Carolina polling...if he's winning here now he's winning most everywhere"
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« Reply #46 on: March 09, 2012, 04:58:43 am »
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Meh. Romney leading in North Carolina does not mean he is definitely leading in Mississippi or Alabama.
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« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2012, 05:27:38 am »
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Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.
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« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2012, 08:59:06 am »
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Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.
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« Reply #49 on: March 09, 2012, 09:45:24 am »
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Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.

A win is a win, but the momentum from Super Tuesday probably gives a Romney a slight boost.
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