The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Illinois impresses me. Apparently some people are able to make rational decisions.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I have been expecting this for days. Those polls of 3, 4 and 6 points were complete BS. I could see it from just looking at the map of the state and keeping in mind both the Senate and Gubernatorial primaries of 2010 and the proper proportions of each part of state. Many I think have been overestimating that proportion of "Illinois' Alabama" within a GOP primary, and underestimating the voting power of Cook and the collar counties. Romney would have to loose ground within his demographics or suffer severely low turnout for this be even close.


Hell just today they were still discussing the possibility of Rick upsetting Mitt here, on FNS.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

[Eraserhead]

Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

Santorum needs a game changer. Illinois would be one but he's not getting it. In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh? Where does that "It's over!!! Romney has it wrapped up!!!" thing came from the last two days? Mittens was always the heavy favorite in Illinois, even after his southern debacle. A simple look at an Illinois map will show even to the most naive that Chicagoland will always outvote downstate, even in a Republican primary.

And Santorum will be fine in April as long as he wins the states he's expected to win (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and perhaps Delaware). If he manages to survive there then it will be Romney who will have to face a brutal month in May.

Santorum needs a game changer. Illinois would be one but he's not getting it. In fact, he's probably going to get blown out of the water. On the current trajectory (Santorum winning some of the caucus states and most of the ultra conservative states/Romney winning everything else), Romney wins the nomination. Simple as that.

Well, that was pretty obvious always. The point is that even if Romney wins Illinois in a landslide, the primary season isn't going to shut down. The best Democrats can hope for is for him suffering through a grinding process that reaches through June and which weakens him considerably as a GE candidate.

The only possibility for Santorum to do something more than that is if he survives the Northeast Super Tuesday and proceeds to sweep every contest in May (very difficult but not inconceivable), thus making the argument that Mittens is damaged goods and forcing an open convention. 

[Wisconsin+17]

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AL+ MS was the game changer for him.

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Heh, has Illinois ever been predicted for Santorum? Ever?

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Not necessarily. He can win enough conservative states, even if he doesn't win IL. If he wins IL - then it's pretty much over for Romney.

[Keystone Phil]

It was over for Santorum when he announced.  Reality takes a while to set in sometimes, kind of like in 2006.

Sam is still busy wiping all of the egg off his face after being proven hilariously wrong about Santorum being a factor. The only thing more embarrassing than being an idiot that predicted Santorum would win in 2006 is being the person that predicted Santorum would never catch fire and then proudly walk around like you're an expert.

[Phony Moderate]

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AL+ MS was the game changer for him.

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Heh, has Illinois ever been predicted for Santorum? Ever?

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Not necessarily. He can win enough conservative states, even if he doesn't win IL. If he wins IL - then it's pretty much over for Romney.

Didn't Joe lecture you about this the other day?

[Wisconsin+17]

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About having unpopular opinions?

He was 3rd in MS and AL and won both. That should count as a game changer, no?

[Joe Republic]

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About having unpopular opinions?

About using the quote function correctly.  More people are starting to complain.

[Wisconsin+17]

About using the quote function correctly.  More people are starting to complain.

Oh, well my apologies. This forum uses them differently from other forums, and when I switch back and forth.

[Keystone Phil]

Ben, they will do anything to tear us down. It isn't even like you attributed someone's quote to someone else. Just let it roll off your back, Ben. [Insert Google Problem joke here.]

[Eraserhead]

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About having unpopular opinions?

He was 3rd in MS and AL and won both. That should count as a game changer, no?

Not really, no. Both are conservative strongholds.

[The Mikado]

Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

I respect the hell out of the campaign Santorum's run.  Being dead serious for a moment, Santorum has literally won states despite being outspent 5/1 or worse.  That's pretty incredible and speaks to how terrible a candidate Romney is the passion of Santorum's supporters.  But unless he shakes the dynamics of the race up, he will lose, even though he'll win another 8-10 states along the way to defeat.

[J. J.]

Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

Santorum's "southern victory day" ended with a net loss of 7 delegates. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

I respect the hell out of the campaign Santorum's run.  Being dead serious for a moment, Santorum has literally won states despite being outspent 5/1 or worse.  That's pretty incredible and speaks to how terrible a candidate Romney is the passion of Santorum's supporters.  But unless he shakes the dynamics of the race up, he will lose, even though he'll win another 8-10 states along the way to defeat.

Exactly, Santorum's success clearly took him by surprise.

In order for Santorum to win, he needs to keep Romney's PV margins down, but equally, needs to focus on willing delegates... since more delegates are in urban and suburban areas, Romney continues to vacuum up delegates despite losing the popular vote.

Santorum and Romney are in opposite by oddly similar positions. Rick needs to win a major swing state and start to win in urban/suburban areas to increase delegate collection and establish a moral justification for their continued candidacy. Mitt needs to start to expand his base beyond wealthy, educated "yuppie"/suburbanites... in order to create momentum . Mitt also needs to win somewhere that isn't a) a state won by Obama in 2008 (it looks good to some, but only re-enforces the 'moderate' tag) b) a red state by winning the areas that Obama won c) a state with a disproportionate Mormon pop'n d) a state with a majority GOP 'conservative' electorate....

[Wisconsin+17]

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I see the magnitude, and our maths differ. I have him at 22/23 states which may be enough (without IL) to force a convention outright.

Santorum wins IL - he can likely take the nomination. A romney win here is status quo, reinforcing the deadlock.

[J. J.]

I see the magnitude, and our maths differ. I have him at 22/23 states which may be enough (without IL) to force a convention outright.

Santorum wins IL - he can likely take the nomination. A romney win here is status quo, reinforcing the deadlock.

Santorum, to be credible, has to start winning delegates.  Romney on a clear path to victory.  In March, Mittens has increased his lead over Santorum by more than 200 delegates.  That is the status quo.

At best, a Santorum win in IL, in terms of delegates, is highly unlikely.

BTW, according to AP, Romney gained two delegates in MS.  Greenpages said just one soft, but they take a while to update.

[Lief 🗽]

No, J.J., Romney did not gain any delegates on Santorum in MS. Mitt won 12 delegates, while Rick won 13. Another 12 were won by Newt Gingrich.

[J. J.]

No, J.J., Romney did not gain any delegates on Santorum in MS. Mitt won 12 delegates, while Rick won 13. Another 12 were won by Newt Gingrich.

According to AP, Romney now has 14, which I'd guess would be an RNC member.  http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Greenpages lists it at 13, 12, and 13 for Mitt, with a "soft" delegate.  http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MS-R

[RI]

Santorum up around 10 on the first night of our Louisiana poll...doesn't look like there will be much intrigue there

Gingrich is really fading compared to the other recent LA polls, Romney in a clear second on our first night of calls

And most importantly:

Drew Brees has a very real chance at breaking our all time favorability record...94% in tonight's calls.

[Eraserhead]

Good. Santorum needs a solid win to keep the lulz coming.

[Matthew]

Mitt's net favorability with GOP voters is up 18 points over the last month, suggesting growing acceptance: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/romney-holds-small-lead-nationally.html

[Matthew]

Republican voters souring on Santorum a little. His net favorability down 13 pts in last month: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/romney-holds-small-lead-nationally.html

[Keystone Phil]

PPP LA poll due out between 10:30 and 11.