The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Bull Moose Base]

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[Landslide Lyndon]

I always thought that the polls showing Romney ahead in Iowa were stretching credulity. He is a terrible fit for the state.

[Tender Branson]

"Obama doing quite well in New Hampshire, as he was in Iowa last week."

"8% of North Carolinians think being gay should be a felony."

[Tender Branson]

Regarding their presidential polls out later today:

Tomorrow's poll releases: Virginia President, North Carolina President, Wisconsin Senate

Another very good poll for Obama in Virginia. Going to be pretty surprised if he doesn't win it again.

Romney's down by decent amount in VA whether you include him or not but Virgil Goode could cause trouble for him there- takes 9% of GOP vote

Our sample is less Democratic this time, and less Democratic than 2008, and Obama still doing very well

Obama's up 11 with independents in Virginia, and he's getting 9% of Republicans while losing just 4% of Democrats

Obama up 85-12 with black voters in NC this month, the 76-20 in June was just an anomaly, as we thought

1 pt race for President in North Carolina this month...probably going to be about like that all the way through

Romney's experience at Bain is an 11 point net negative with North Carolina voters

Paul Ryan on the ticket helps Romney in Wisconsin a lot more than Scott Walker

[tmthforu94]

Regarding NM, ppp says Obama leads by the smallest amount to date. With Martinez as Romney's runningmate, the state is almost tied.

Obamas lead has also dropped "by a fair amount" in Iowa.

[tmthforu94]

They said closest its been in over 2 years - a while back PPP had Obama up 7 in New Mexico, so the margin is closer than that.

Any predictions? I say 49-44 Obama. 47-46 Obama with Martinez on the ticket.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Wow. I wouldn't have guessed this. Fantastic news. And it's PPP to boot!

[Miles]

I'll say 50-44 Obama in NM, 48-46 with Martinez; slightly better than tmth's prediction.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why would his numbers there improve so much, even if they are 50-44 or whatever? That is significantly better then the 56-36 type numbers we have grown use to from this state.

[morgieb]

Even if this is true, it still seems like an outlier at this stage.

[Vern]

Well, CO has move more toward Romney, so it would seem like NM would get closer as well.

[King]

Obama isn't losing NM.  NM Republicans are cattle farmers.  A guy like W (and Reagan) could drive up the turnout on them and charge to victory.  Bush Sr. couldn't, Dole couldn't, McCain couldn't, and Romney won't either.

But not surprising it will flirt with a close race for awhile.

[Tender Branson]

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This is almost identical to the 48-38 lead among Indys in their previous CO poll, in which Obama led by 7 overall.

Considering a sample this time of 35-35-30, Obama should lead by about 3-7 points again.

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http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[Tender Branson]

If I had to estimate PPP's Colorado topline for their release today, it would be 49-44 Obama, based on the above mentioned 35-35-30 sample and the 49-38 Indy split.

[Tender Branson]

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http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/240188224813817857

[Lief 🗽]

Hardly shocking news, he was leading by only 5 and 6 points in their last polls of the two states.

[Tender Branson]

PPP polls Colorado, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina this weekend from Friday to Sunday to get a full post-convention look.

Florida and North Carolina will be released later today after 9pm Eastern. The other 2 states will be polled today as well and will be released tomorrow or Tuesday.

Some tweets:

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[Eraserhead]

Well, come on, the speech was ridiculous/sad but who doesn't like Clint Eastwood?

[Minnesota Mike]

So much for a convention bounce in Florida.

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[Meeker]

lolz

of course, not expecting an Obama bounce in NC after the DNC either

[Tender Branson]

Obama to still lead in CO (by small margin), and in MI (by bigger margin).

[pepper11]

Probably suggests a 4 point swing toward Romney in CO.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama to still lead in CO (by small margin), and in MI (by bigger margin).

PPP twitter says smaller margin in both states.

[Tender Branson]

PPP to poll Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio this weekend.

[Eraserhead]

PPP to poll Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio this weekend.

Wow, nice group.