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Author Topic: Under what circumstances does Gingrich drop out right after Super Tuesday?  (Read 646 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 25, 2012, 03:19:46 am »

If Gingrich's only victory between now and Super Tuesday is Georgia, will that be enough for him to suspend his campaign?  Will he do it if he loses even Georgia?  Or is he going to keep going regardless?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2012, 03:47:11 am »
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If he loses Georgia, he should probably give up the ghost. If he wins Georgia, which I still think he will, he should stick around.
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Pictor Ignotus
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2012, 09:07:46 am »
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If talk of a brokered convention still is happening, or especially increases, that certainly gives him reason to keep collecting delegates.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2012, 10:01:17 am »
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I think if Georgia is close and he wins no place else, he'll pull out.
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2012, 11:09:29 am »
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If Romney wins MI and he loses GA (and loses everywhere else), he will probably 'suspend' his campaign or 're-asses' or some  kind of half-assed semi withdrawal but still going hoping another debate will be scheduled. He will hope that somehow Santorum or Romney collapses and he gets an opening, perhaps in LA, AL or maybe MO or KS. But after March 24 with LA there is six weeks until the next southern state (NC), and if he still hasn't won anything since SC he may have to admit defeat.

The only caveat is that Sheldon Adelson can continue to fund his campaign via the superpac if it is decided (and Newt agrees) that he should stay in to help Romney
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Whacker77
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2012, 11:30:07 am »
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There's really no reason for any of the candidates to drop out as long as the race is still proportional allotment.  Still, Gingrich must do well in Georgia.  Were I him, I would exclusively campaign from now on in the South.  If his goal is to make it to the convention, then becoming a regional candidate is his best bet.  Since this is Gingrich's last race, I doubt he feels he has much to lose.
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2012, 01:30:46 pm »
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Gingrich must win Georgia to stay in.  If Santorum does well enough to win Georgia, then there's no hope for Gingrich to be the leading anti-Romney, even if we do end up with a contested convention.  If Romney wins Georgia, game over man.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2012, 01:34:46 pm »
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I think Gingrich actually caught a break with Santorum's rather weak debate performance.  Had Santorum performed strongly and turned this into a two-man race, Newt would have been on the outside looking in.  Instead, Santorum was weak and Gingrich likely has new life in the South.  A three-way pile up is the only way this ends in a convention fight so Gingrich must stay relevant to make that happen.  I think the debate opened the door for Gingrich to become the candidate of the South.
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2012, 01:35:53 pm »
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I think Gingrich actually caught a break with Santorum's rather weak debate performance.  Had Santorum performed strongly and turned this into a two-man race, Newt would have been on the outside looking in.  Instead, Santorum was weak and Gingrich likely has new life in the South.  A three-way pile up is the only way this ends in a convention fight so Gingrich must stay relevant to make that happen.  I think the debate opened the door for Gingrich to become the candidate of the South.

Too bad there are only really two states Gingrich could potentially win on Super Tuesday: Georgia and Tennessee.
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2012, 01:40:23 pm »
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There's no reason for Gingrich to not go the distance. After this gig, he's retired. He has more than enough cash on hand to travel the country and speak. Why wouldn't he want to do what he loves to do best?
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2012, 01:43:49 pm »
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Under what circumstances does Paul drop out right after Super Tuesday?  None.  So why shouldn't Newt also stay in and rack up some delegates?
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2012, 01:48:13 pm »
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There's no reason for Gingrich to not go the distance. After this gig, he's retired. He has more than enough cash on hand to travel the country and speak. Why wouldn't he want to do what he loves to do best?

How does being on the campaign trail help Newt find a fourth wife? Wink
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Erc
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2012, 01:51:04 pm »
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Posted some info on the chances Newt has to pick up delegates after Super Tuesday in my big thread.

Basically, there's a huge gap where Newt has essentially zero chance of picking up any delegates (outside of Puerto Rico) between March 13 (AL/MS primaries) and May 8 (NC primary), unless he drastically improves on a national level.

At the very least, if he fails to win any delegates in Alabama (there's a 20% threshold), he should drop out.

After a certain point, he's probably decreasing the chance of a brokered convention by staying in, by running the risk of acting as a spoiler and handing certain WTA states to Romney.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2012, 02:02:23 pm »
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Adelson cuts Newt off once and for all because he is no longer needed as a useful instrument to siphon off votes from Santorum.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2012, 06:07:51 pm »

Under what circumstances does Paul drop out right after Super Tuesday?  None.  So why shouldn't Newt also stay in and rack up some delegates?

As Erc said, few of the states are strictly proportional.  And even those with proportionality have a 15% or 20% floor for winning any delegates.  So if he starts falling below that threshold in most of these contests, what's the point of going on?

Also, while there's a certain logic to sticking it out so that you can be a broker in a brokered convention, there's the practical reality of keeping yourself motivated, and keeping your supporters motivated, if you've concluded that the best you can realistically hope for is a 3rd place finish in delegates that will allow to bargain your way onto the veep slot on the GOP ticket.
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2012, 06:27:22 pm »
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If he loses Georgia. Otherwise he'll wait to see if he can win Alabama and Mississippi. If he loses Georgia, he's done.
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