Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2014, 07:56:20 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  NBC's flawed electoral map
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: NBC's flawed electoral map  (Read 1733 times)
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 803
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« on: February 24, 2012, 12:18:30 pm »
Ignore

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/24/10496527-first-thoughts-nbcs-new-battleground-map

How exactly is Iowa lean GOP? Most polls have had Obama up there, I don't think one outlier changes things. New Mexico for the last time is not a swing state! It belongs in the likely Dem category.
Logged
Whacker77
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 756


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2012, 12:26:33 pm »
Ignore

Chuck Todd said this morning the private polling showed Obama struggling.  He also said it's likely attributable to the six months of Obama bashing the candidates did there in the lead up to the caucuses.
Logged
cavalcade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -3.13

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2012, 12:41:17 pm »
Ignore

They're likely working off that weird Selzer poll that showed Paul, Romney, and Santorum all beating Obama in Iowa.

NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11247


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2012, 01:25:14 pm »
Ignore

Even if Obama's numbers are at present artificially deflated in Iowa in the aftermath of the flow tide of Republican candidates, which is entirely possible, one would hope that a self-respecting news organization would correct for that rather than taking it at face value.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35363
United States
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2012, 01:39:55 pm »
Ignore

a good rule of thumb is to automatically eschew any MSM analysis... we and the rest of the blogosphere are better at it than they are.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1014
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -6.70


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2012, 01:58:22 pm »
Ignore

NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.

That was a mistake - they now have it as Lean Dem.
Logged

Likely Voter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4449


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2012, 02:02:09 pm »
Ignore

Well it is mostly right but there are some head scratchers, like NM and IA. Chuck Todd is usually better than this. Just earlier this week he was saying that MI was "safe" for Obama and now it is "lean".
Logged

Carlos Danger
wormyguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8410
Liechtenstein


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2012, 02:04:29 pm »
Ignore

If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.
Logged

Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12910
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2012, 02:06:42 pm »
Ignore

What kind of PVI does that "most Republican in quite some time" Maine CD have? What the what is that nonsense?
Logged

Politico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4888
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2012, 02:31:32 pm »
Ignore

I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.
Logged

"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."

- Bastiat
mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1324
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2012, 03:13:28 pm »
Ignore

I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

LOL
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11247


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2012, 03:14:49 pm »
Ignore

I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:23 pm »
Ignore

Quote
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (94)

dude what
Logged



Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15472


Political Matrix
E: -8.39, S: -3.30

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:43 pm »
Ignore

If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.

wat
Logged

asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11247


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2012, 03:18:31 pm »
Ignore

If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.

Jesus.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2012, 03:21:06 pm »
Ignore

Another absurdity:

Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (1 EV), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)

How does this site define "landslide", exactly?
Logged



memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14096


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -3.83


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2012, 03:27:06 pm »
Ignore

I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.
However, Romney is likely to come in second in the GOP nomination. Not quite the same thing.
Logged

I was naturally suited to be a lawyer, almost from birth. It was as if, almost, God had willed it. He meant for me to be here, to punish you, and then punish you some more.
I refuse to die a martyrs death here, because you know why?  Martyrs are still dead.
Kevin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4780
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2012, 03:29:18 pm »
Ignore

Flawed map
Logged

Reginald
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 434


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2012, 05:41:44 pm »
Ignore

NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.

That was a mistake - they now have it as Lean Dem.

Actually, NM is now listed in both the Tossup and Lean Dem categories (although it looks like NM isn't included in the electoral vote total for the tossups). Really, they should just scrap this and start over anew at this point.
Logged

Why the F********CK would you open this God damn thread if you expected only to get compliments and butterflies, you fat F'in moron?
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6381
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: 2.78

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2012, 06:51:52 pm »
Ignore

I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.

Maybe not, but he's certainly Politico's second coming.
Logged

"The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return."
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21658
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2012, 07:05:57 pm »
Ignore

* Maine is listed as both solid and likely Dem.
* Nevada should be lean Dem.
* Oregon is lean Dem, should be solid Dem.
* New Mexico is both lean Dem and tossup.
* Pennsylvania should be lean Dem.
* Iowa is listed as lean GOP, should be lean Dem.
* Alabama is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Arkansas is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Texas is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Alaska is listed as solid GOP, should be likely GOP.

Ya dun goof'd, NBC.
Logged

izixs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 396
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2012, 08:10:30 pm »
Ignore

Another problem with NBC electoral math in general is that they severely limit the kind of polls they're allowed to use in their analysis.
Logged

I'll come up with one later.
Badger
badger
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9690
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2012, 08:13:46 pm »
Ignore

Well it is mostly right but there are some head scratchers, like NM and IA. Chuck Todd is usually better than this. Just earlier this week he was saying that MI was "safe" for Obama and now it is "lean".

Re: todd, not really. He's turned into an increasingly msm hacish type in recent years.
Logged
AG Simfan
Simfan34
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8090


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2012, 08:25:56 pm »
Ignore

a good rule of thumb is to automatically eschew any MSM analysis... we and the rest of the blogosphere are better at it than they are.

Thank you for saying this... because we know so much and they don't, right?
Logged

You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8441
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2012, 08:32:37 pm »
Ignore

I noticed CNN's flawed map when I was watching it a few weeks back now, it might've been on the NH or SC results night.

"The GOP could win Iowa and sweep Obama from office", er no, BHO still probably wins Iowa even if he loses.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines