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Author Topic: NBC's flawed electoral map  (Read 3552 times)
Devils30
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« on: February 24, 2012, 12:18:30 pm »
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http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/24/10496527-first-thoughts-nbcs-new-battleground-map

How exactly is Iowa lean GOP? Most polls have had Obama up there, I don't think one outlier changes things. New Mexico for the last time is not a swing state! It belongs in the likely Dem category.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2012, 12:26:33 pm »
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Chuck Todd said this morning the private polling showed Obama struggling.  He also said it's likely attributable to the six months of Obama bashing the candidates did there in the lead up to the caucuses.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2012, 12:41:17 pm »
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They're likely working off that weird Selzer poll that showed Paul, Romney, and Santorum all beating Obama in Iowa.

NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2012, 01:25:14 pm »
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Even if Obama's numbers are at present artificially deflated in Iowa in the aftermath of the flow tide of Republican candidates, which is entirely possible, one would hope that a self-respecting news organization would correct for that rather than taking it at face value.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2012, 01:39:55 pm »
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a good rule of thumb is to automatically eschew any MSM analysis... we and the rest of the blogosphere are better at it than they are.
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2012, 01:58:22 pm »
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NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.

That was a mistake - they now have it as Lean Dem.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2012, 02:02:09 pm »
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Well it is mostly right but there are some head scratchers, like NM and IA. Chuck Todd is usually better than this. Just earlier this week he was saying that MI was "safe" for Obama and now it is "lean".
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2012, 02:04:29 pm »
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If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2012, 02:06:42 pm »
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What kind of PVI does that "most Republican in quite some time" Maine CD have? What the what is that nonsense?
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Politico
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2012, 02:31:32 pm »
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I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.
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mondale84
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2012, 03:13:28 pm »
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I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

LOL
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Nathan
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2012, 03:14:49 pm »
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I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.
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Scott
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:23 pm »
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Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (94)

dude what
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Gabriel Cáceres

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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:43 pm »
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If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.

wat
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Nathan
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2012, 03:18:31 pm »
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If it's any consolation, they have Alabama as only "likely" GOP, while West Virginia is safe.

Jesus.
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Scott
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2012, 03:21:06 pm »
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Another absurdity:

Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (1 EV), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)

How does this site define "landslide", exactly?
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« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2012, 03:27:06 pm »
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I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.
However, Romney is likely to come in second in the GOP nomination. Not quite the same thing.
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Kevin
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« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2012, 03:29:18 pm »
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Flawed map
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Reginald
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2012, 05:41:44 pm »
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NM as a tossup is a real head scratcher though.

That was a mistake - they now have it as Lean Dem.

Actually, NM is now listed in both the Tossup and Lean Dem categories (although it looks like NM isn't included in the electoral vote total for the tossups). Really, they should just scrap this and start over anew at this point.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2012, 06:51:52 pm »
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I think a lot of Democrats are in denial about how this election is either going to be 2004-close or a blowout for the Republicans.

I think a lot of Politicos are in denial about how Mitt Romney is not the second coming.

Maybe not, but he's certainly Politico's second coming.
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R2D2
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« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2012, 07:05:57 pm »
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* Maine is listed as both solid and likely Dem.
* Nevada should be lean Dem.
* Oregon is lean Dem, should be solid Dem.
* New Mexico is both lean Dem and tossup.
* Pennsylvania should be lean Dem.
* Iowa is listed as lean GOP, should be lean Dem.
* Alabama is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Arkansas is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Texas is listed as likely GOP, should be solid GOP.
* Alaska is listed as solid GOP, should be likely GOP.

Ya dun goof'd, NBC.
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izixs
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« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2012, 08:10:30 pm »
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Another problem with NBC electoral math in general is that they severely limit the kind of polls they're allowed to use in their analysis.
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I'll come up with one later.
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« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2012, 08:13:46 pm »
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Well it is mostly right but there are some head scratchers, like NM and IA. Chuck Todd is usually better than this. Just earlier this week he was saying that MI was "safe" for Obama and now it is "lean".

Re: todd, not really. He's turned into an increasingly msm hacish type in recent years.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2012, 08:25:56 pm »
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a good rule of thumb is to automatically eschew any MSM analysis... we and the rest of the blogosphere are better at it than they are.

Thank you for saying this... because we know so much and they don't, right?
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change08
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« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2012, 08:32:37 pm »
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I noticed CNN's flawed map when I was watching it a few weeks back now, it might've been on the NH or SC results night.

"The GOP could win Iowa and sweep Obama from office", er no, BHO still probably wins Iowa even if he loses.
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