Arizona and Michigan county maps

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who else wants to take a stab at this?

I'll have some up.

[Averroës Nix]

Here's an attempt:

Michigan - 44% Romney, 38% Santorum



Arizona - 45% Romney, 34% Santorum



EDIT: AZ map, deferring to realisticidealist's criticism.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Michigan map would definitely be a Santroum victory (remember that Wayne County's proportion of the state in a GOP primary is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay less than it is in a general election.)

[Averroës Nix]

That Michigan map would definitely be a Santroum victory (remember that Wayne County's proportion of the state in a GOP primary is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay less than it is in a general election.)

True, but Wayne + Oakland and Macomb contained around 300,000 votes in the 2008 primary. The total for all Romney counties on my map is probably above 400,000 (statewide turnout was 870,000).

[Stranger in a strange land]

While it's conceivable that the Michigan map could be a Romney victory, it would probably be more in the 42-41 range, not 44-38.

[RI]

That Arizona map would easily result in Romney winning over 50% of the vote.

[Averroës Nix]

That Arizona map would easily result in Romney winning over 50% of the vote.

You're definitely right about that - and I don't think that he'll reach a majority in the Phoenix-Flagstaff corridor. Map has been adjusted.

[ndcohn]

So I haven't made a prediction map yet, but one kind of fun thing to think about is the strong, negative correlation between Romney's 12' vote and Huckabee's 08 vote. It's a great predictor of how Romney will fare in a given county, and would have almost exactly nailed the Florida map. For the statistically inclined, the r^2 is .8

I wrote a blog post on it here, and there's also a map of how that would play out in Michigan.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/19/predictions-revisited-the-ghost-of-huckabee/

[Torie]

So I haven't made a prediction map yet, but one kind of fun thing to think about is the strong, negative correlation between Romney's 12' vote and Huckabee's 08 vote. It's a great predictor of how Romney will fare in a given county, and would have almost exactly nailed the Florida map. For the statistically inclined, the r^2 is .8

I wrote a blog post on it here, and there's also a map of how that would play out in Michigan.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/19/predictions-revisited-the-ghost-of-huckabee/

Yes, I think the map posted there and below is quite good. Rick may do better in some of those small northern counties outside of Grand Traverse, but in general, it appears that Mitt will carry the Catholic vote by a rather clear margin ironically. If he doesn't, he won't carry the state, and it looks more likely than not that he will at the moment. Mittens should certainly carry Livingston, Inghram, and Wastenaw I would think. However, unlike the map, I would think Mittens should carry  Midland, which is relatively upscale, with all those chemical engineers at Dow Chemical.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Before I introduce my maps, CD predictions for Michigan. Would do Arizona except it's pointless because of WTA. First the map:



MI-01: Strong Santorum
MI-02: Tossup. Can Grand Rapids proper outvote the other counties? That's the answer to who wins here.
MI-03: Strong Santorum, he takes the rural counties easily, Romney might have some strength in Kent County but then he's winning the state big time.
MI-04: Strong Santorum.
MI-05: Tossup.
MI-06: Strong Santorum, Romney did lousy here even in 2008.
MI-07: Tossup, kind of an odd area to predict.
MI-08: Lean Romney, if he loses here it'll be disastrous.
MI-09: Strong Romney, not much to say.
MI-10: Tossup.
MI-11: Strong Romney
MI-12: Strong Romney
MI-13: Strong Romney
MI-14: Strong Romney

So Romney favored in 6 districts, Santorum favored in 4, 4 tossups. If I had to predict the tossups I'd say MI-02: Santorum, MI-05: Romney, MI-07: Romney, MI-10: Romney. So Romney wins 9-5 which is 18-10 delegates, and 20-10 if he wins the state. But even if Santorum wins, he probably doesn't win more than 7 districts, and even all the tossups still gives him 18-12 which is weaker than Romney's (who'd take 22-8 in a sweep), Romney can even conceivably carry 8 districts and lose the state, which would give him a 16-14 delegate advantage. Got to be somewhat amused by the GOP delegate allocation method which actually weakens the clout of their strongest areas...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here is Michigan:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arizona was a little tricker (besides the obviously "Mormons for Romney"):



I kind of used the McCain/Hayworth numbers as a rough guide and adjusted for Mormonism.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney would break 40% in Maricopa. It has Mormons and rich suburbs.

[RI]

Romney would break 40% in Maricopa. It has Mormons and rich suburbs.

Maricopa's percentages will be about the same as the statewide vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MI-02: Tossup. Can Grand Rapids proper outvote the other counties? That's the answer to who wins here.
MI-03: Strong Santorum, he takes the rural counties easily, Romney might have some strength in Kent County but then he's winning the state big time.

Grand Rapids proper is in MI-03; the bits of Kent County in MI-02 are adjacent suburbs.

[ilikeverin]

So here is Michigan:

Er, no.  At the very least, you're severely overrepresenting the size of the Romney cluster that will exist in southeast Michigan; for example, I would be surprised if Santorum doesn't win Livingston County.  Though Grand Rapids is full of hipsters, as I'm sure you know, well, hipsters don't vote in primaries and the rightists in Grand Rapids are still of the Christian Reformed type, likely to go for Santorum.  Ingham County will probably go Romney, but likely less than 40%, thanks to MSU.  (same story re: Washtenaw County)  Clinton might go Romney, too; it depends on how well his margin is in the Lansing exurbs compared to the rural hinterlands.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MI-02: Tossup. Can Grand Rapids proper outvote the other counties? That's the answer to who wins here.
MI-03: Strong Santorum, he takes the rural counties easily, Romney might have some strength in Kent County but then he's winning the state big time.

Grand Rapids proper is in MI-03; the bits of Kent County in MI-02 are adjacent suburbs.

Then that split is pretty pointless then. Well then flip the status of those. Actually MI-03 might be a bit more winnable for Romney than MI-02 plus Grand Rapids but I'd have to bet on Santorum for both.

So here is Michigan:

Er, no.  At the very least, you're severely overrepresenting the size of the Romney cluster that will exist in southeast Michigan; for example, I would be surprised if Santorum doesn't win Livingston County.  Though Grand Rapids is full of hipsters, as I'm sure you know, well, hipsters don't vote in primaries and the rightists in Grand Rapids are still of the Christian Reformed type, likely to go for Santorum.  Ingham County will probably go Romney, but likely less than 40%, thanks to MSU.  (same story re: Washtenaw County)  Clinton might go Romney, too; it depends on how well his margin is in the Lansing exurbs compared to the rural hinterlands.

Romney would have to really fall from 2008 to lose Livingston.

Does Grand Rapids really have hipsters? I thought it was a pretty boring place, yes they have one of the trendiest bands in hardcore today (La Dispute), but I don't think you would've heard of them. But all urban areas seem to be big for Romney, see Jacksonville, also see the lack of Huckabee strength in Kent in 2008.

[ilikeverin]

So here is Michigan:

Er, no.  At the very least, you're severely overrepresenting the size of the Romney cluster that will exist in southeast Michigan; for example, I would be surprised if Santorum doesn't win Livingston County.  Though Grand Rapids is full of hipsters, as I'm sure you know, well, hipsters don't vote in primaries and the rightists in Grand Rapids are still of the Christian Reformed type, likely to go for Santorum.  Ingham County will probably go Romney, but likely less than 40%, thanks to MSU.  (same story re: Washtenaw County)  Clinton might go Romney, too; it depends on how well his margin is in the Lansing exurbs compared to the rural hinterlands.

Romney would have to really fall from 2008 to lose Livingston.

Does Grand Rapids really have hipsters? I thought it was a pretty boring place, yes they have one of the trendiest bands in hardcore today (La Dispute), but I don't think you would've heard of them. But all urban areas seem to be big for Romney, see Jacksonville, also see the lack of Huckabee strength in Kent in 2008.

Hmm, I didn't realize that Romney did so well in Livingston County; I guess I didn't realize the extent to which Brighton et al. have more population in them than the Howell bits.  (Livingston County is well-known as the most racist county in the Lower Peninsula, and tends to be considered a little slice of the South smack dab in the Detroit metro.)  And, yeah, Grand Rapids proper is known for being quite hipster-y.  Keep in mind that Rob Bell's church (perhaps he's too mainstream for you? ) is right next to Grand Rapids.  However, it's also known that the rest of Western Michigan is full of wacko fundie Christian Reformed people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes I know who Rob Bell is, my church planting pastor buddy is a huge fan of his most recent book and is basically lending it to anyone who asks (I haven't yet). But remember that it was still just 65% for Obama and has quite similar racial demographics to Minneapolis.

So are you living in Michigan and still somehow not aware of La Dispute? Because even in your case I'd find that shocking. Even though they really sound just like a mewithoutYou ripoff except they aren't Christian and even most atheists agree aren't anywhere near as good...but they are huge and trendy now. Some guy at a show who went to high school in Kalamazoo told me about how there was a battle of the bands in the area and he got all the kids from his high school to come and vote for his terrible ska band...and THEY BEAT LA DISPUTE.

[ndcohn]

I still haven't done my projection map, but I think Livingston County is solid Romney:
-highest median household income in the state
-5% of households make more than 200k (Romney hasn't lost a single county in a primary where more than 5% make 200k+)
-Huckabee did poorly / Romney did well
-Not especially evangelical
-More than 10% have a post-grad education. Romney has won every county where more than 10% have a postgrad degree, except Alachua County, FL

[ilikeverin]

Yes I know who Rob Bell is, my church planting pastor buddy is a huge fan of his most recent book and is basically lending it to anyone who asks (I haven't yet).

You should.  We watched his NOOMA videos all the time at my Minnesota church, and I think you'd really connect with him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Er, the music I listen to is almost exclusively classical or from video games, and the only concert I've ever been to was a Weird Al concert at the Minnesota State Fair.  I have no idea why you'd be at all shocked to find out that I have no idea what on earth that random band is or does.

[socaldem]

MI-01: Strong Santorum
MI-02: Tossup. Can Grand Rapids proper outvote the other counties? That's the answer to who wins here.
MI-03: Strong Santorum, he takes the rural counties easily, Romney might have some strength in Kent County but then he's winning the state big time.
MI-04: Strong Santorum.
MI-05: Tossup.
MI-06: Strong Santorum, Romney did lousy here even in 2008.
MI-07: Tossup, kind of an odd area to predict.
MI-08: Lean Romney, if he loses here it'll be disastrous.
MI-09: Strong Romney, not much to say.
MI-10: Tossup.
MI-11: Strong Romney
MI-12: Strong Romney
MI-13: Strong Romney
MI-14: Strong Romney

I think your predictions are more or less accurate, except, as others have pointed out, Grand Rapids is not in MI-02, so it will not be a major factor there... the Dutch Reformed impact on the GOP primary throughout that region is going to overwhelm any Romney strength in the urban areas of Kent County...I expect Santorum will win Kent County.

Strong Santorum: CDS 1, 2, 3, 4

Lean Santorum: CDS 5, 10 (working class GOP voters)

Strong Romney: CDS 8, 9, 11, 13, 14

I expect Paul will do best in CD 13.  Could he possibly win there?

I predict that though Romney will win the state, Santorum may get more CD delegates...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney would have to drop massively from 2008 to lose MI-05.

You missed districts 6, 7 and 12.

[ndcohn]

I'm going with this map
justification here
http://electionate.com/2012/02/26/michigan-primary-preview/

[Indy Texas]

I'm going with this map
justification here
http://electionate.com/2012/02/26/michigan-primary-preview/

This looks about right. I also looked at some of the demographic maps at the link. I wasn't aware Michigan had such a significant Dutch heritage; I guess I always assumed the "mitten" was Midwestern German/English and the UP was more Scandinavian (I had a TA in college who was from the UP and he looked like a viking and sounded like a Minnesotan).