Arizona and Michigan county maps

[socaldem]

Romney would have to drop massively from 2008 to lose MI-05.

You missed districts 6, 7 and 12.

Yeah...my post was really garbled...my main point was that I think that Santorum will do well throughout Southwestern Michigan...

I meant to say that Paul may have a chance in CD12, not CD13... with college students and Arab-American support in Dearborn, and Dems voting for Santorum/Paul, could he eek out a win there?

After looking at the PPP breakdown by area code, I think you're right--Santorum will likely win CD5.

CD13, though, could actually go to Santorum, imo, on the strength of Dem crossover, no?

[ndcohn]

If black voters are participating in cross-voting as much as white dems, that could really influence MI-13.
http://electionate.com/2012/02/28/michigan-too-close-thoughts-on-democratic-crossovers/

[they don't love you like i love you]

Looks like I nailed the CD predictions, though I did overstate Santorum in MI-01 obviously. Interestingly I understated him (or rather overstated Paul and Newt) in the rest of rural Michigan.

I was wrong on Kent County, but Romney obviously did take Grand Rapids proper at least.

My Arizona map wasn't actually too bad in county rankings, just shift everything about 10 points toward Romney.