MI PrimR: EPIC/MRA: Santorum Leads Romney by 3%; Romney +13% Among Absentees

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Michigan President by EPIC/MRA on 2012-02-21

Summary:

Romney:	34%
Santorum:	37%
Paul:	10%
Gingrich:	7%
Other:	3%
Undecided:	12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

When you voted by absentee ballot in the February 28th Republican presidential primary, which of the following candidates did you vote for?



38% Mitt Romney

25% Rick Santorum

20% Undecided/Refused

6% Newt Gingrich

6% Ron Paul

5% Other



 



 If the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward?



37% Rick Santorum

34% Mitt Romney

10% Ron Paul

7% Newt Gingrich

12% Undecided/Refused

[Eraserhead]

I just don't see how Santorum pulls off a win with Romney clobbering him among early voters like that.

[Mr. Morden]

I just don't see how Santorum pulls off a win with Romney clobbering him among early voters like that.

Is there any actual evidence that candidates doing well in absentees overperform their overall polling numbers?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I just don't see how Santorum pulls off a win with Romney clobbering him among early voters like that.

I don't know what the percentage of absentees usually is, but it's not open early voting.

[Tender Branson]

The fact that Romney is way ahead among early voters doesn't tell us much about who wins alltogether.

Remember that the Entrance polls in Iowa had Romney leading in the "first wave" and then Santorum gained when the people who voted later on were surveyed.

It could be that Romney voters tend to vote early and Santorum wins the election day voters.

[Eraserhead]

The fact that Romney is way ahead among early voters doesn't tell us much about who wins alltogether.

Remember that the Entrance polls in Iowa had Romney leading in the "first wave" and then Santorum gained when the people who voted later on were surveyed.

It could be that Romney voters tend to vote early and Santorum wins the election day voters.

Sure, but what happens if the Santorum voters become disenfranchised (by the negative ads/coverage of him and/or his crappy debate performance) and don't show up on election day. Romney's early votes/absentees/whatever are already there for him no matter what happens. It's clearly a big plus for him.

[Torie]

Mittens has a concerted absentee vote campaign, so all things being equal, he should do better with absentees. I think the polls showed him doing better with absentees in Florida. So the numbers discrepancy in this poll does not surprise me.

[Tender Branson]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

[rob in cal]

Couldn't find any mention of just how many had already early voted.  I believe Michigan doesn't have a big absentee vote, unlike western states and Florida, or extensive early voting like Georgia, Florida etc.

[© tweed]

I just don't see how Santorum pulls off a win with Romney clobbering him among early voters like that.

Is there any actual evidence that candidates doing well in absentees overperform their overall polling numbers?

sometimes we have to be intuitive.  I don't mean to get all postmodern and be like 'science is just another dialog' but turnout for people who have already voted is 100%.

[Brittain33]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

[Torie]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

[Brittain33]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

I'm using the Jacobean definition of "awful," "inspiring wonder and admiration."

[Torie]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

I'm using the Jacobean definition of "awful," "inspiring wonder and admiration."

Yes, of course, just like Adams did when he described a Catholic service which he and Washington attended in Philadelphia, as "awful."  You Lefties are just so 18th century! 

[Simfan34]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

I'm using the Jacobean definition of "awful," "inspiring wonder and admiration."

Isn't that "awesome"?

[Torie]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

I'm using the Jacobean definition of "awful," "inspiring wonder and admiration."

Isn't that "awesome"?

Brittain33 is right about the archaic definition of "awful." That is why he grabbed it as his lifeline, clever boy that he is. 

[Torie]

20% of those who already voted are "undecided" ? WTF ?

Not willing to tell a pollster which of these awful men they voted for.

Do we have an example of "excessive hyperbole" here? 

I'm using the Jacobean definition of "awful," "inspiring wonder and admiration."

Isn't that "awesome"?

That's a more modern word that has degraded into argot, losing most of its connection to inspiring awe, as it slides into the abyss of a mere synonym for great or fabulous among the generation that won't be getting social security the way I will.