Which of these counties will Obama win in 2012?
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  Which of these counties will Obama win in 2012?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Choose
#1
Lancaster (PA)		  
#2
Orange (CA)		  
#3
Orange (NY)		  
#4
Sarasota (FL)		  
#5
Fayette (PA)		  
#6
Klickitat (WA)		  
#7
Spokane (WA)		  
#8
DuPage (IL)		  
#9
Riverside (CA)		  
#10
Harris (TX)		  
#11
Niagara (NY)		  
#12
Loudoun (VA)		  
#13
Stanislaus (CA)		  
#14
Yellowstone (MT)		  
#15
Macomb (MI)		  
#16
Stearns (MN)		  
#17
Washoe (NV)		  
#18
Monmouth (NJ)		  
#19
Maricopa (AZ)		  
#20
Kent (MI)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 17

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Author Topic: Which of these counties will Obama win in 2012?  (Read 1096 times)
Napoleon
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« on: March 04, 2012, 01:04:42 AM »
« edited: March 04, 2012, 01:16:25 AM by Governor Napoleon »
And discuss!

Of these, Obama won Orange (NY), Klickitat (WA), DuPage (IL), Riverside (CA), Harris (TX), Niagara (NY), Loudoun (VA), Stanislaus (CA), Macomb (MI), Washoe (NV), and Kent (MI).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2012, 01:41:07 AM »
Reversal of the Favorite Son effect and demographic change should shift Maricopa County into the Obama camp. So far I can see no areas in the country that should be grossly dissatisfied with President Obama that voted for him in 2008. Barack Obama is the definitive urban candidate -- and Suburbia is now mostly urban.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2012, 02:10:37 AM »
None he will lose all of them.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2012, 11:35:44 AM »
None, with the possible exception of Orange, NY.
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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2012, 11:37:20 AM »
This is one of these things that can only be seriously answered if we know the national result.
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mondale84
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2012, 11:47:33 AM »

LOL
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jeron
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2012, 12:43:51 PM »
Lancaster (PA). No. Has been reliably Republican for a long time.
Orange (CA) It will be close, but I'd say no, despite a growing latino and asian population
Orange (NY)  Yes, it will be close, like last time.
Sarasota (FL)   No. He'll probably won't do very well in Florida this year.
Fayette (PA)   No, it has been trending R.
Klickitat (WA)  Yes, narrowly
Spokane (WA)   No, only voted D 2 times in the last 10 presidential elections (1992/1996)
DuPage (IL)   Yes. Favorite son effect.
Riverside (CA)   Yes. But it will be close
Harris (TX)   Yes. Obama does well in urban areas
Niagara (NY)  Yes. Voted D in the last 6 elections
Loudoun (VA)  Yes, 8% margin for Obama last time.
Stanislaus (CA)   Yes, has a growing latino population
Yellowstone (MT)  No, hasn't voted D since 1964
Macomb (MI)   Yes. He won by 8% in 2008.
Stearns (MN)   No, hasn't voted D in the last three elections and Obama lost by 7% in 2008.
Washoe (NV)  Yes. 12% margin in 2008.
Monmouth (NJ)   No, it's a traditional Republican county
Maricopa (AZ)  No, even without McCain he won't win.
Kent (MI) No, conservative area.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2012, 12:46:20 PM »
what about gwinnett county, ga?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2012, 01:00:40 PM »
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2012, 01:17:58 PM »
Quote from: jeron on March 04, 2012, 12:43:51 PM
Monmouth (NJ)   No, it's a traditional Republican county

Gore won it by 5 points... but Romney is not the kind of Republican to trigger a massive flight to the Dems in Monmouth, despite his best efforts to convince the base in other states he is.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2012, 03:50:25 PM »
No way Obama wins Lancaster (I'm from there).
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