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| | |-+  Last Call: Predict the winner tonight in Michigan.
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Poll
Question: Who wil win tonights Michigan primary?
Mitt Romney   -32 (41%)
Rick Santorum   -44 (56.4%)
Newt Gingrich   -1 (1.3%)
Ron Paul   -1 (1.3%)
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Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Last Call: Predict the winner tonight in Michigan.  (Read 1211 times)
Cory
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« on: February 28, 2012, 09:49:30 am »
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So Atlasians, it's the big day and I was wondering what the final predictions of the board users are. For the record I voted Santorum, but by a slim margin. Romney will walk away with more delegates of course due to his win in Arizona. That being said, the narrative will hurt Romney and bolster Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

So, what's your take?
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Volrath50
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2012, 09:51:47 am »
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I've held out that Rick was going to pull off a win in MI since the 8th of February, I'm not going to abandon him now.
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2012, 09:52:08 am »
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IF Romney has this big a lead in early voters I think he will pull it out...very close one
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2012, 10:46:50 am »
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My heart says Rick, but my money is on Mitt.

He will again prove that money can buy you love votes
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ZuWo
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2012, 10:59:40 am »
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Since the latest polls have shown that the momentum is shifting towards Santorum, I say Santorum wins with a considerable margin, i.e. he will be more than 5% ahead of Romney.
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hotpprs
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2012, 11:18:29 am »
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One thing is apparent even if Rick comes in a close 2nd. The ground game is coming up huge for him.
His campaign staff, or maybe just the one or two top people advising him, have been greatly underestimated. It was widely reported that Mitt's "organization" was just vastly superior then anyone else in this primary battle. Does that really seem to be the case at this point?
After Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado and now Michigan, I don't think you can say it is all just about Rick himself. There are very subtle things happening in this campaign that have to be attributed to some very smart people behind the scenes. And I don't think with this crazy primary schedule any candidate has the time to plan all these moves for themselves.
For example, Rick had a horrible bump down after the Arizona debate. Most campaign's can't recover from something like that in just a week. (like Gov Perry).
But just a few subtle things may have helped Rick's campaign reverse things again.
Very very small things. Like Santorum's Ford NASCAR sponsorship during the Daytona 500, or the college "snob" comment, even though it was directed at Obama.
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izixs
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2012, 11:23:17 am »
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My prediction is Santorum by a very small margin. My lead in the prediction rankings is banking on this. :-p

Arizona will be closer than expected, but still strong Romney.
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I'll come up with one later.
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2012, 11:44:42 am »
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I think, objectively, it's looking like a very slight Santorum lean....although I'm quite pessimistic for some reason.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2012, 11:53:16 am »
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Mittens.
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2012, 12:07:02 pm »
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My prediction locked in on Romney, so I'll have to vote for him.
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2012, 12:53:02 pm »
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Romney, but it will be very close.
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Social score: -5.74
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2012, 12:54:34 pm »
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Slight Santorum win, but below 40.
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2012, 12:57:03 pm »
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W. Mitt Romney
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in a mirror, dimly lit
Lief
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« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2012, 01:22:23 pm »
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Just made the bet with my roommate. I am now all in for Senator Richard "Rick" Santorum.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2012, 01:25:24 pm »
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My head still says Romney, but my gut says Santorum.  I went with my gut because I think Santorum has the conservative momentum.
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« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2012, 01:35:26 pm »
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I'm not sure if we're seeing a dead cat bounce or momentum, and whether this momentum is enough to outdo Romney's higher commitment levels and early voting lead. I'm going to say Romney +0.5, which really means nearly nothing.
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n/c
Duke
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« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2012, 01:42:22 pm »
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My gut says Mittens wins by a slim margin, not enough to stop Rick from continuing his torrid rise in the polls. He could win by more given his large lead among early voters. I also want to factor that Democrats who are pushing for Rick might not be motivated to actually turn out and vote.
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Grumpy Old Fart
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« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2012, 01:44:35 pm »
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Santorum
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And let's be honest, Obama could take a selfie of his junk in the bathroom mirror with his BlackBerry, have it transferred to canvas and you'd have people saying it ought to be hung in the National Gallery.

Napoleon
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2012, 01:47:40 pm »
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Mitt
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Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2012, 01:49:26 pm »
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My heart says Rick, but my money is on Mitt.

Yep, same for me.

I like to be pessimistic, since it makes good surprises more likely. Wink
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2012, 01:50:39 pm »
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Romney will probably win both states. And he needs to do that to stay in the race.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2012, 01:54:28 pm »
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<40% Romney
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Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2012, 01:55:41 pm »
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Robot.
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Marston
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« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2012, 02:11:49 pm »
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Santorum
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2012, 05:06:19 pm »
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Romney by a hair
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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