Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[5280]

I think Mitt will overtake the entire Mitt (Michigan) by the time they're all counted.

[Wiz in Wis]

If Santorum can win the Washington caucus and get a bit of momentum back... Super Tuesday will be painful for Romney.

[ag]

11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind?

Yeah, it was about 13,000 and now it is about 11,500. Still not time to call it - but, given what's left, Romney should do well.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Does Rick have a shot at this still or am I gonna be having another wrong one

[Wiz in Wis]

11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind?

A towel.

[Alcon]

Also, pay attention to precinct size.  Either Oakland County turnout is big ups (great for Romney), absentees are already counted (good for Santorum) or the remaining precincts tend small (a weird possibility that would probably help Santorum.)

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[yourelection]

1) Santorum loses all Delegates in AZ and will split Delegates in MI
2) Double wins be Romney in AZ and MI

1 + 2 = Loss of momentum for Santorum -> worsening media image -> more difficult to fund raise

Bottom line: not a good night for Santorum, boost for Romney

[cinyc]

... and Santorum takes an 8-5 lead in the CDs.  MI-01, MI-03, MI-04 and MI-05 are really close, with the lead switching hands often.  MI-09 is still all out.

[ag]

W/ 45% reporting it is about 16,500 vote lead for Romney. Getting there.

[ag]

And w/ 50% reporting it is just shy of 20,000 votes

[yourelection]

... and Santorum takes an 8-5 lead in the CDs.  MI-01, MI-03, MI-04 and MI-05 are really close, with the lead switching hands often.  MI-09 is still all out.

We could have the situation that Romney wins the state overall and Santorum gets more Delegates.

Still Santorum will not get the momentum from gaining more delegates than Romney.

[Franzl]

I think there should be some projections...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yup, more than half of the votes in and Romney has a 4-points lead. It's over.

What a shame.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like every pollster screwed up at least 1 race so far this year ...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Good night for Romney!! That makes me feel good!

[Wisconsin+17]

Still TCTC halfway in.

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AZ + MI were considered gimmes for Mitt. This is what we folks in the south call a raid. You damage the enemy by raiding on his home turf.

Santorum, if he wins in MI - Mitt is likely done. Mitt had his back up against the wall and still hasn't disposed of the challenger.

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Splits the delegates from MI and a win in WA to counter AZ - win for Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

This race ain't over by a long shot.

[Alcon]

W/ 45% reporting it is about 16,500 vote lead for Romney. Getting there.

A lot of this change seems to be urban areas becoming less underreported.  I still don't think Santorum can make this up, but I still assert that tonight's swing toward "Romney is a sure thing" has been one of the bigger election night over-reactions to information I've seen...

The last several dumps have been from the Detroit area and have been fairly eh for Romney.  But Santorum winning the remaining votes by 8% when Detroit is underrepresented...hard to believe.

[Wisconsin+17]

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3 point lead. Same as it's pretty much always been. TCTC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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3 point lead. Same as it's pretty much always been. TCTC.

Face reality. The likelihood of Santorum overcoming such a lead is near zero now.

[Tender Branson]

Are the vote counters taking a nap in AZ ?

[Franzl]

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3 point lead. Same as it's pretty much always been. TCTC.

Face reality. The likelihood of Santorum overcoming such a lead is near zero now.

Detroit is still underrepresented in the votes we have now. It seems quite unlikely that Santorum could get the kind of margin he'd need to still win with those outstanding votes.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Objectively, does Rick have a shot?

[Wisconsin+17]

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We shall see.

If the margin is twice the variance I will call it. Until then - no.

[yourelection]

Still TCTC halfway in.

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AZ + MI were considered gimmes for Mitt. This is what we folks in the south call a raid. You damage the enemy by raiding on his home turf.

Santorum, if he wins in MI - Mitt is likely done. Mitt had his back up against the wall and still hasn't disposed of the challenger.

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Splits the delegates from MI and a win in WA to counter AZ - win for Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

This race ain't over by a long shot.

The republican nomination is not over at all, but Romney should get a boost coming out of these primaries. He has not really been able to profit from his boosts in the past, though.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Objectively, does Rick have a shot?

Unlikely, but Romney's margin in Wayne has been shrinking. There is a slim possibility that the more Romney-friendly precincts came in first. Most of the remaining counties that have not reported will probably break for Santorum, but it's unlikely they'll tip the scales.