Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[California8429]

Dangit! Last night I changed my prediction from Romney to Santorum

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Well damn it.

[Torie]

I wonder if Mittens has a new speech writer. His victory speech was more lyrical than normal, with better "chord" changes. It was written by a rather talented pro. If a newbie, Mittens should keep him close.

[Sam Spade]

I wonder if Mittens has a new speech writer. His victory speech was more lyrical than normal, with better "chord" changes. It was written by a rather talented pro. If a newbie, Mittens should keep him close.

Whatever, don't name who he is, because Mitt's team will fire him once that occurs.

[Joe Biden 2020]

We still have a long way to go.  Next Tuesday will tell a lot.  Mittens has Virginia in the bag, but other than free delegates, it doesn't count. Ohio could go either Romney or Santorum.  Georgia is Gingrich, Tennessee and Oklahoma are likely Santorum, but possible Gingrich.  North Dakota, IMO, could go Romney or Santorum based on Minnesota.  Idaho is Romney country.  Massachusetts, Vermont, and Alaska are Romney.

Based on this scenario, Romney has 5, possibly 8, states next Tuesday, Santorum has possibly 4, Gingrich has 1, and Paul gets shutout.

This may be too favorable for Romney, but it's how I see it currently.  We'll have to wait and see how the post-February 28 polls look like and see what happens in Wyoming and Washington State tomorrow and Saturday, respectively.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Dangit.  Why did Gingrich and Paul have to underperform?  I figured Mitt would win Michigan with a shade under 40% not a shade over 40%.  It looks like I'll be getting only 1 point instead of 2 points from the land of two peninsulae.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum lost that one UP county by one vote and its neighbor by four votes. Five damn votes cost Santorum the UP. Five.

[redcommander]

Tonight is a great night for the Republican Party.

God Bless Michigan.

[Mopsus]

Santorum lost that one UP county by one vote and its neighbor by four votes. Five damn votes cost Santorum the UP. Five.

Speaking of Mackinac county, I just noticed that Santorum received exactly 666 votes there.

[Likely Voter]

Looking at the exit polls, it seems that Rick lost MI at the debate last week.

[Lincoln Republican]

Michigan, Romney wins Catholics, CATHOLICS, 44 to 37 over Santorum.

Well done Mitt!

[Meeker]

Michigan, Romney wins Catholics, CATHOLICS, 44 to 37 over Santorum.

Well done Mitt!

... he lost Protestants 42-40.

[redcommander]

Did Michigan and Arizona both have record turn out?

[Lincoln Republican]

Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan.

The Nebraska corn is growing a little more golden.

The Arizona sun is shining a little brighter.

The Michigan auto industry is veritably humming along.

THE MITT EFFECT

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's entire statewide margin of victory basically comes from Oakland county.

[RI]

Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan.

The Nebraska corn is growing a little more golden.

The Arizona sun is shining a little brighter.

The Michigan auto industry is veritably humming along.

THE MITT EFFECT

Why are you talking about Nebraska?

[Lincoln Republican]

Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan.

The Nebraska corn is growing a little more golden.

The Arizona sun is shining a little brighter.

The Michigan auto industry is veritably humming along.

THE MITT EFFECT

Why are you talking about Nebraska?

Sorry, Wyoming.  

[socaldem]

So what are the CD results?

Santorum definitely won CDs 2,3,4,6 and looks like he also secured CD 7.

Romney won CDs 8,9,11,12,14

I think Romney also pulled out wins in CDs 1, 5 and 10.

I think Romney won 13, but I wouldn't be so sure (seeing how well Santorum performed in Dem areas of Oakland County)...

When the first returns came in, which would be only GOP-registered absentee voters, Romney was winning Wayne County and Washtentow, each, with over 50%.  By the end of the night, that margin in Wayne was wheedled down to 41.6% -33.2% and, in Washtentow, it was only 41.8%-37.6%.  I think the difference is attributed to election day Dem voters pulling the lever for Santorum.  It can be presumed that much of Romney's margins came from GOP-leaning areas of Wayne County--Livonia, Grosse Pointe, etc... Could Santorum have actually won Dem-heavy CD 13?  How close was CD 12?

Oakland County doesn't give breakdowns of the distribution of votes in new CDs but Rick Santorum bested Romney in the old CD12 in Southern Oakland County (currently rep'ed by Levin).
 

[Eraserhead]

I'm kind of surprised the networks projected Michigan as early as they did. It was rather close.

[RI]

So what are the CD results?

Santorum definitely won CDs 2,3,4,6 and looks like he also secured CD 7.

Romney won CDs 8,9,11,12,14

I think Romney also pulled out wins in CDs 1, 5 and 10.

I think Romney won 13, but I wouldn't be so sure (seeing how well Santorum performed in Dem areas of Oakland County)...

When the first returns came in, which would be only GOP-registered absentee voters, Romney was winning Wayne County and Washtentow, each, with over 50%.  By the end of the night, that margin in Wayne was wheedled down to 41.6% -33.2% and, in Washtentow, it was only 41.8%-37.6%.  I think the difference is attributed to election day Dem voters pulling the lever for Santorum.  It can be presumed that much of Romney's margins came from GOP-leaning areas of Wayne County--Livonia, Grosse Pointe, etc... Could Santorum have actually won Dem-heavy CD 13?  How close was CD 12?

Oakland County doesn't give breakdowns of the distribution of votes in new CDs but Rick Santorum bested Romney in the old CD12 in Southern Oakland County (currently rep'ed by Levin).
 

According to the results the AP has up, Santorum leads in CDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 13. He also narrowly trails in CD 5. Two of those could realistically flip against Santorum as the vote totals are rather incomplete (10 and 13).

[Lincoln Republican]

The Romney win in Michigan is remarkable given that he was trailing by maybe 9 or 10 points two weeks ago, and due to the fact that thousands of cross over Democrats cast mischief votes for Santorum knowing he would be a much weaker opponent for their real candidate, Obama.

[Lincoln Republican]

Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan.

The Nebraska corn is growing a little more golden.

The Arizona sun is shining a little brighter.

The Michigan auto industry is veritably humming along.

THE MITT EFFECT

Why are you talking about Nebraska?

Sorry, Wyoming.  

The Wyoming mountains are standing a little more majestic. 

[cinyc]

According to the results the AP has up, Santorum leads in CDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 13. He also narrowly trails in CD 5. Two of those could realistically flip against Santorum as the vote totals are rather incomplete (10 and 13).

Unless there is something very non-uniform in the split jurisdictions for which I can't break down the data, Romney won MI-10 by over 3,000 votes.  In particular, I don't which precincts of Sterling Heights, Macomb County are in MI-10 and don't have a breakdown of the Tuscola County vote, which is in two CDs.  

I'll try to calculate MI-05.  Edited to add: I can't because of the Tuscola split.

The Wayne County Board of Elections' website doesn't provide precinct level data, so breaking down MI-13 and the Wayne part of MI-14 is impossible right now.  Despite the map, Romney won the Oakland part of MI-14 big, about 12,700 to 7,400.   We might see the same phenomenon in the suburban parts of MI-13, trumping any low-turnout Santorum precincts from Detroit.

[socaldem]

So what are the CD results?

Santorum definitely won CDs 2,3,4,6 and looks like he also secured CD 7.

Romney won CDs 8,9,11,12,14

I think Romney also pulled out wins in CDs 1, 5 and 10.

I think Romney won 13, but I wouldn't be so sure (seeing how well Santorum performed in Dem areas of Oakland County)...

When the first returns came in, which would be only GOP-registered absentee voters, Romney was winning Wayne County and Washtentow, each, with over 50%.  By the end of the night, that margin in Wayne was wheedled down to 41.6% -33.2% and, in Washtentow, it was only 41.8%-37.6%.  I think the difference is attributed to election day Dem voters pulling the lever for Santorum.  It can be presumed that much of Romney's margins came from GOP-leaning areas of Wayne County--Livonia, Grosse Pointe, etc... Could Santorum have actually won Dem-heavy CD 13?  How close was CD 12?

Oakland County doesn't give breakdowns of the distribution of votes in new CDs but Rick Santorum bested Romney in the old CD12 in Southern Oakland County (currently rep'ed by Levin).
 

According to the results the AP has up, Santorum leads in CDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 13. He also narrowly trails in CD 5. Two of those could realistically flip against Santorum as the vote totals are rather incomplete (10 and 13).

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

[cinyc]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.