Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:40:46 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 13
Author Topic: Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread  (Read 14653 times)
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:07 PM »

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

Nothing at all weird about that. Done often enough in safe elections in the US.

And in Germany (and Europe for the most part), the exit polls are considered to be practically the results. Politicians concede defeat and declare victory based off of them.

In last few election I remember exit poll getting a bad name. Which tells me CNN is 1) wanting to be first in making a projection and 2) that they are very confident in the exit poll.

American exit polls tend to be poor, but it's still a matter of statistics. They might be 5% off....or a bit more, but it's very unlikely that they're off by more than a certain amount.

If CNN has Romney up by...say...15% in the exit poll, then it's really nearly a certainty that it won't be THAT wrong.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:28 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

How do you know those votes were absentees?  As ag said, they're not first-counted everywhere.  In some places, they're even last counted.
Logged
rbt48
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,060


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: February 28, 2012, 09:20:09 PM »

Well, as a Romney supporter, I'm encouraged by the large number of precincts out in Wayne, Macomb, and Oakland Counties.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: February 28, 2012, 09:20:19 PM »

Even if they aren't, it's still TCTC.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: February 28, 2012, 09:21:04 PM »

Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

It is, indeed, too early to call for Romney, but it's getting there. Oakland and Wayne counties are reporting 12%-13%, while the state has reported 30%. And that's where the Romney margin is.

And no, there is no reason to believe, abstentees are counted first everywhere. It's up to each county how they do this.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:00 PM »

Anyone have any idea what turnout is like this year compared to 2008 in Michigan so far?

Ca. 1 Mio. people voting (+/- 200.000)
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:10 PM »

Well, good news for Santorum is that many of the remaining counties should break for him and Kent county is still at 5%. Will be close.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:17 PM »

MI Exit Poll:

40 Romney
37 Santorum
13 Paul
  7 Gingrich

AZ Exit Poll:

44 Romney
27 Santorum
16 Gingrich
12 Paul

Where's the exit poll?  I don't see it on CNN's website in the usual place.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: February 28, 2012, 09:23:31 PM »

MI Exit Poll:

40 Romney
37 Santorum
13 Paul
  7 Gingrich

AZ Exit Poll:

44 Romney
27 Santorum
16 Gingrich
12 Paul

Where's the exit poll?  I don't see it on CNN's website in the usual place.


http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az
Logged
yourelection
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 436


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: February 28, 2012, 09:24:03 PM »

I'm tempted to make a projection in MI, but I'll hold back for a little longer.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: February 28, 2012, 09:25:59 PM »

Time for it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related

Go Mittens!
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: February 28, 2012, 09:27:50 PM »

Romney cap still 44. 1/3rd of the way through. Best case, 44-35
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: February 28, 2012, 09:27:59 PM »

It's very steady: 3% lead, which, in absolute terms, is now about 12,000 votes (35% reporting).
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: February 28, 2012, 09:30:00 PM »

Congratulations Politico.  Tongue
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: February 28, 2012, 09:32:12 PM »

Wow, Gingrich down to 6. Variance here still might not make him relevant. That's sad.
Logged
TomC
TCash101
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,973


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:00 PM »

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:12 PM »

Phil has left the building (or the Forum in this case) !
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:39 PM »

Phil has left the building (or the Forum in this case) !

I was in the chat. It's been over for awhile. Oh well. Holding out hope for Ohio and such next week.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: February 28, 2012, 09:34:37 PM »

I've been pessimistic about Santorum's chances since before the polls closed, but man, Intrade and some commentators are taking pessimism to extremes.  There is no way way that Santorum has only a 3% chance of pulling this off.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,144


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: February 28, 2012, 09:34:51 PM »

Also of note: AP is still reporting 0 from CD-9, which is likely more Romney than the outer parts of Oakland & Macomb.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: February 28, 2012, 09:35:21 PM »

I don't really think this is a game changer. Santorum certainly remains competitive (this is one of Romney's home states, after all), and he's very much established himself as the anti-Romney (lol @ Gingrich's numbers).

Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: February 28, 2012, 09:36:02 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Still TCTC.

What did you tell us after Iowa -

Never. Give. Up.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: February 28, 2012, 09:37:21 PM »

Romney does pretty well in the upper glove (or should we say "mitten" ?) ... Tongue
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #173 on: February 28, 2012, 09:38:21 PM »

11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind? Smiley
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #174 on: February 28, 2012, 09:39:15 PM »

Also of note: AP is still reporting 0 from CD-9, which is likely more Romney than the outer parts of Oakland & Macomb.

Hmm, interesting...

And I still don't understand how the hell these absentees are being counted.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 12 13  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 13 queries.