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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
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Author Topic: Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread  (Read 5772 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #150 on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:07 pm »
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CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

Nothing at all weird about that. Done often enough in safe elections in the US.

And in Germany (and Europe for the most part), the exit polls are considered to be practically the results. Politicians concede defeat and declare victory based off of them.

In last few election I remember exit poll getting a bad name. Which tells me CNN is 1) wanting to be first in making a projection and 2) that they are very confident in the exit poll.

American exit polls tend to be poor, but it's still a matter of statistics. They might be 5% off....or a bit more, but it's very unlikely that they're off by more than a certain amount.

If CNN has Romney up by...say...15% in the exit poll, then it's really nearly a certainty that it won't be THAT wrong.
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cinyc
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« Reply #151 on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:28 pm »
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The problem is, it's not like they first count absentees everywhere. It was in early counts that Santorum's been ahead - recently, Romney lead has been steadily growing, not falling (it's now about 9500 votes).

Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

How do you know those votes were absentees?  As ag said, they're not first-counted everywhere.  In some places, they're even last counted.
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rbt48
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« Reply #152 on: February 28, 2012, 09:20:09 pm »
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Well, as a Romney supporter, I'm encouraged by the large number of precincts out in Wayne, Macomb, and Oakland Counties.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #153 on: February 28, 2012, 09:20:19 pm »
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Even if they aren't, it's still TCTC.
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« Reply #154 on: February 28, 2012, 09:21:04 pm »
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Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

It is, indeed, too early to call for Romney, but it's getting there. Oakland and Wayne counties are reporting 12%-13%, while the state has reported 30%. And that's where the Romney margin is.

And no, there is no reason to believe, abstentees are counted first everywhere. It's up to each county how they do this.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #155 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:00 pm »
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Anyone have any idea what turnout is like this year compared to 2008 in Michigan so far?

Ca. 1 Mio. people voting (+/- 200.000)
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« Reply #156 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:10 pm »
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Well, good news for Santorum is that many of the remaining counties should break for him and Kent county is still at 5%. Will be close.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #157 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:17 pm »

MI Exit Poll:

40 Romney
37 Santorum
13 Paul
  7 Gingrich

AZ Exit Poll:

44 Romney
27 Santorum
16 Gingrich
12 Paul

Where's the exit poll?  I don't see it on CNN's website in the usual place.
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« Reply #158 on: February 28, 2012, 09:23:31 pm »
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MI Exit Poll:

40 Romney
37 Santorum
13 Paul
  7 Gingrich

AZ Exit Poll:

44 Romney
27 Santorum
16 Gingrich
12 Paul

Where's the exit poll?  I don't see it on CNN's website in the usual place.


http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/mi

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/az
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« Reply #159 on: February 28, 2012, 09:24:03 pm »
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I'm tempted to make a projection in MI, but I'll hold back for a little longer.
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« Reply #160 on: February 28, 2012, 09:25:59 pm »
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Time for it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1kp9adYYE&feature=related

Go Mittens!
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J. J.

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #161 on: February 28, 2012, 09:27:50 pm »
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Romney cap still 44. 1/3rd of the way through. Best case, 44-35
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« Reply #162 on: February 28, 2012, 09:27:59 pm »
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It's very steady: 3% lead, which, in absolute terms, is now about 12,000 votes (35% reporting).
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J. J.
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« Reply #163 on: February 28, 2012, 09:30:00 pm »
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Congratulations Politico.  Tongue
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #164 on: February 28, 2012, 09:32:12 pm »
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Wow, Gingrich down to 6. Variance here still might not make him relevant. That's sad.
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« Reply #165 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:00 pm »
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Congratulations Politico.  Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #166 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:12 pm »
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Phil has left the building (or the Forum in this case) !
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #167 on: February 28, 2012, 09:33:39 pm »
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Phil has left the building (or the Forum in this case) !

I was in the chat. It's been over for awhile. Oh well. Holding out hope for Ohio and such next week.
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« Reply #168 on: February 28, 2012, 09:34:37 pm »
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I've been pessimistic about Santorum's chances since before the polls closed, but man, Intrade and some commentators are taking pessimism to extremes.  There is no way way that Santorum has only a 3% chance of pulling this off.
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« Reply #169 on: February 28, 2012, 09:34:51 pm »
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Also of note: AP is still reporting 0 from CD-9, which is likely more Romney than the outer parts of Oakland & Macomb.
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Franzl
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« Reply #170 on: February 28, 2012, 09:35:21 pm »
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I don't really think this is a game changer. Santorum certainly remains competitive (this is one of Romney's home states, after all), and he's very much established himself as the anti-Romney (lol @ Gingrich's numbers).

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #171 on: February 28, 2012, 09:36:02 pm »
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It's been over for awhile. Oh well. Holding out hope for Ohio and such next week

Still TCTC.

What did you tell us after Iowa -

Never. Give. Up.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #172 on: February 28, 2012, 09:37:21 pm »
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Romney does pretty well in the upper glove (or should we say "mitten" ?) ... Tongue
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #173 on: February 28, 2012, 09:38:21 pm »
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11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind? Smiley
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« Reply #174 on: February 28, 2012, 09:39:15 pm »
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Also of note: AP is still reporting 0 from CD-9, which is likely more Romney than the outer parts of Oakland & Macomb.

Hmm, interesting...

And I still don't understand how the hell these absentees are being counted.
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