Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[Alcon]

What the hell does "exclusive exit polling of likely voters" even mean?  Are they concerned they accidentally polled some people who just happened to wander in and out of the polling place but forgot to vote?

[Alcon]

This is looking like a pretty Romney-friendly electorate to me so far...

[Alcon]

Keep in mind that the exit polls estimate percent of early voters.  That 25% isn't much better than a rough extrapolation, even if the networks account for the fact that there are more poll voters to vote.

[Alcon]

Thank God turnout is lower than expected in Michigan. Romney tends to do better when no one shows up to vote.

That seems intuitive to me, but I'm not sure how well-supported that is by empirical evidence.

I have more exciting up-to-date coverage on #atlasforum at mibbit.com.  EXCITEMENT.

[Alcon]

Romney up to 65 on Intrade in MI.

He's been at about 63% ever since the news that absentees were overrepresented in the exit polls.  Before then, he was at 55% or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.  As always, we're smarter than Intrade (even if we're maybe a bit more capricious.)

[Alcon]

Romney up to 65 on Intrade in MI.

He's been at about 63% ever since the news that absentees were overrepresented in the exit polls.  Before then, he was at 55% or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.  As always, we're smarter than Intrade (even if we're maybe a bit more capricious.)

yes we know you hate Intrade.  I hold to it because I hold to Lacan's definition of the objective as a plural reality.

do you realize that's a misappropriation of that theory? whatever.

[Alcon]

AP reporting absentees accounted for 25% of votes... Good sign for Romney

Except we don't actually know what percent of voters will be absentees.  It's not even clear how the exit polls arrived at that total, and if any extrapolation to account for evening voters was involved at all.

[Alcon]

Michigan does not have party registration, and robocalls are very cheap, so people should get off Santorum's back.

In any case, so far we have:

* Possibly absentee-heavy electorate (good for Romney)
* Possibly older electorate (good for Romney)
* Possibly less Republican electorate (marginally good for Santorum)

Romney is up to about 2-to-1 odds on Intrade, which seems about right.  Looking pretty good for Mitt so far.

[Alcon]

Guys, please argue elsewhere.  This is a results thread.

[Alcon]

I've been pessimistic about Santorum's chances since before the polls closed, but man, Intrade and some commentators are taking pessimism to extremes.  There is no way way that Santorum has only a 3% chance of pulling this off.

[Alcon]

Also of note: AP is still reporting 0 from CD-9, which is likely more Romney than the outer parts of Oakland & Macomb.

Hmm, interesting...

And I still don't understand how the hell these absentees are being counted.

[Alcon]

Also, pay attention to precinct size.  Either Oakland County turnout is big ups (great for Romney), absentees are already counted (good for Santorum) or the remaining precincts tend small (a weird possibility that would probably help Santorum.)

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[Alcon]

W/ 45% reporting it is about 16,500 vote lead for Romney. Getting there.

A lot of this change seems to be urban areas becoming less underreported.  I still don't think Santorum can make this up, but I still assert that tonight's swing toward "Romney is a sure thing" has been one of the bigger election night over-reactions to information I've seen...

The last several dumps have been from the Detroit area and have been fairly eh for Romney.  But Santorum winning the remaining votes by 8% when Detroit is underrepresented...hard to believe.

[Alcon]

Nate Silver notes that Romney is generally outperforming his 2008 numbers, which were about where he is now (39.9%)

[Alcon]

Whew, good Oakland County dump for Romney.  About ready to call this.

[Alcon]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which is whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

They've actually downgraded Democrats to 7% of the sample last I checked.

[Alcon]

NBC calls for Romney

[Alcon]

I wonder what the results of the Arizona border counties will be, none of them have shown up yet.

I haven't looked at the Arizona results at all, but if the exit polls are right and Romney is doing somewhat anemically among Hispanics, my guess is that Santorum might threaten to tie a few counties there.  I would watch Yuma County (which also has a fair number of evangelicals I think) for being semi-close, and especially Santa Cruz County.

edit: Considering that Tucson's county will obviously be Romney, and I don't know if there's more than one other county on the border, "a few" counties might be an overstatement.  He has a shot at Santa Cruz and might not get blown out of the water in Yuma.  I don't remember what the last county is...

[Alcon]

haha, Yuma County is 98% in.  38-32 Romney; closer than I'd have thought.  That was a waste of mental energy.

Nothing from Santa Cruz, though.  If Yuma was that close, and the white voters in Santa Cruz are similar to Yuma's (no idea), it will vote Santorum.

Cohise County is a weird place, but it doesn't seem much like Yuma or Santa Cruz to me, and has a fairly small Hispanic population.

[Alcon]

Looks like Cochise is tracking pretty similar to Yuma, 39-33 Romney with 73% in.  Santa Clara is probably Santorum then, unless the exit polls were wrong.  Even the Republicans might be majority Hispanic there.

[Alcon]

Not only is that not Excel-compatible formatting, it's not even data formatting.  It's a scanned photocopy of a computer print-out.  Way to go Wayne County.