Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread (user search)
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  Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread  (Read 14811 times)
ag
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« on: February 28, 2012, 08:07:33 PM »
Quote from: italianboy8 on February 28, 2012, 08:00:27 PM
When are results expected to begin to come out?

Michigan should start reporting something right around now: the bulk of the state has just finished voting. The rest of Michigan and Arizona will be finished voting in an hour.
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2012, 08:16:11 PM »
First 100+votes in

Santorum 47%
Romney 34%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 4%

Purely symbolic at this point, of course.
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ag
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2012, 08:18:22 PM »
About 2500 votes in

Santorum 41%
Romney 36%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 7%
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2012, 08:31:15 PM »
4% in, the gap is down to about 330 votes - Santorum 40%, Romney 39%
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2012, 08:38:22 PM »
6% in. Santorum's lead is back to about 1000 votes - still 40% to 39%
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ag
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2012, 08:44:41 PM »
8% in. Santorum is up by 30 votes!

Update: while I was writing it it became 650 votes Smiley)
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ag
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2012, 08:48:19 PM »
And suddenly it is 2500 votes: Santorum 41%, Romney 38%
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ag
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2012, 09:00:22 PM »
With 16% reporting, the Santorum lead is down to about 250 votes!
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ag
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2012, 09:02:02 PM »
17% in: Romney takes the lead for the first time (about 2000 votes at this point)!
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ag
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2012, 09:04:55 PM »
Big dumps from Detroit suburbs: Romney 41%, Santorum 38% (almost 5000 votes difference).
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2012, 09:09:52 PM »
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on February 28, 2012, 09:07:33 PM
These are absentees still, right? Romney +3 probably isn't going to be enough.

Probably, a lot more than that. It's 24% reporting, Romney w/ 8500 vote lead.
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ag
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2012, 09:15:27 PM »
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on February 28, 2012, 09:11:58 PM
Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.

The problem is, it's not like they first count absentees everywhere. It was in early counts that Santorum's been ahead - recently, Romney lead has been steadily growing, not falling (it's now about 9500 votes).
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2012, 09:18:19 PM »
Romney's lead is now over 10,000 votes.
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ag
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« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2012, 09:21:04 PM »
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on February 28, 2012, 09:17:20 PM
Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

It is, indeed, too early to call for Romney, but it's getting there. Oakland and Wayne counties are reporting 12%-13%, while the state has reported 30%. And that's where the Romney margin is.

And no, there is no reason to believe, abstentees are counted first everywhere. It's up to each county how they do this.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2012, 09:27:59 PM »
It's very steady: 3% lead, which, in absolute terms, is now about 12,000 votes (35% reporting).
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ag
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« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2012, 09:40:19 PM »
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on February 28, 2012, 09:38:21 PM
11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind? Smiley

Yeah, it was about 13,000 and now it is about 11,500. Still not time to call it - but, given what's left, Romney should do well.
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2012, 09:45:59 PM »
W/ 45% reporting it is about 16,500 vote lead for Romney. Getting there.
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2012, 09:47:41 PM »
And w/ 50% reporting it is just shy of 20,000 votes
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2012, 10:06:50 PM »
Almost 30,000 vote difference w/ 67% reporting. Yeah, this is getting into the call zone.
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ag
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« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2012, 10:15:22 PM »
They've deleted Hillsdale county results - the last results before that were showing "others" winning there by a big margin.
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