Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[cinyc]

Arizona Secretary of State results by county:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/71726/en/md_data.html?cid=105&

Michigan Secretary of State results by county and CD:
http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12PPR/12PPRall.html

[cinyc]

The Secretary of State Results pages are linked around post 5.  Arizona ultimately breaks things down by precinct, Michigan by CD by county.  

Here they are again.  First, Michigan:
http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12PPR/12PPRall.html

Then, Arizona:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/71726/en/md_data.html?cid=105&

The AP Results pages are here (by county):

Michigan:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/MI_Page_0228.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Arizona:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/AZ_Page_0228.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[cinyc]

MI Secretary of State hasn't reported one vote yet.

[cinyc]

AP's by CD page:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Most CDs are close.

[cinyc]

CD Scorecard:
Santorum leading in 7; Romney leading in 6; No results in 1.

MI-01 Santorum +3
MI-02 Santorum +20
MI-03 Santorum +3
MI-04 Romney +3
MI-05 Romney +7
MI-06 Santorum +8
MI-07 Santorum +5
MI-08 Romney +5
MI-09 No Results
MI-10 Santorum +8
MI-11 Romney +19
MI-12 Romney +7
MI-13 Santorum +10 (Undeclared in second)
MI-14 Romney +42

[cinyc]

CD Scorecard:
Santorum leading in 7; Romney leading in 6; No results in 1.

MI-01 Santorum +3
MI-02 Santorum +20
MI-03 Santorum +3
MI-04 Romney +3
MI-05 Romney +7
MI-06 Santorum +8
MI-07 Santorum +5
MI-08 Romney +5
MI-09 No Results
MI-10 Santorum +8
MI-11 Romney +19
MI-12 Romney +7
MI-13 Santorum +10 (Undeclared in second)
MI-14 Romney +42

Nice! Where did you get these numbers?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

When the SoS gets around to reporting results, they will do it for the old CDs - which is meaningless.  The SoS has yet to report a single vote, anyway.

[cinyc]

Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.

Who says absentees are reporting first?  They don't in many states.  If anything, counties have been trending Romney as the votes come in, suggesting absentees aren't coming in first.

[cinyc]

Romney now leads in 8 CDs to Santorum's 5.  MI-09 isn't in.

[cinyc]

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Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

How do you know those votes were absentees?  As ag said, they're not first-counted everywhere.  In some places, they're even last counted.

[cinyc]

... and Santorum takes an 8-5 lead in the CDs.  MI-01, MI-03, MI-04 and MI-05 are really close, with the lead switching hands often.  MI-09 is still all out.

[cinyc]

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

Much of Coconino County is in in the official Arizona SoS tally.  Romney is winning the county, and thus, the state so far.

[cinyc]

Yeah, it will be interesting. This isn't a very dominant win for Mittens, that's for sure.

He did well enough to win, but I don't think he draws much momentum, if anything from MI.

A win is a win, especially when reported as such.  The margin really doesn't matter - nor does the fact that it looks like Santorum will win more delegates, if the AP tallies hold.

[cinyc]

This is the Oakland County precinct winner map so far, from the county's elections website.  Romney is in peach, Santorum yellow, and Paul red. 



The town with the red in the middle of the county is Pontiac.  Santorum also did well in Southfield and other areas near 8 Mile.

[cinyc]

According to the results the AP has up, Santorum leads in CDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 13. He also narrowly trails in CD 5. Two of those could realistically flip against Santorum as the vote totals are rather incomplete (10 and 13).

Unless there is something very non-uniform in the split jurisdictions for which I can't break down the data, Romney won MI-10 by over 3,000 votes.  In particular, I don't which precincts of Sterling Heights, Macomb County are in MI-10 and don't have a breakdown of the Tuscola County vote, which is in two CDs.  

I'll try to calculate MI-05.  Edited to add: I can't because of the Tuscola split.

The Wayne County Board of Elections' website doesn't provide precinct level data, so breaking down MI-13 and the Wayne part of MI-14 is impossible right now.  Despite the map, Romney won the Oakland part of MI-14 big, about 12,700 to 7,400.   We might see the same phenomenon in the suburban parts of MI-13, trumping any low-turnout Santorum precincts from Detroit.

[cinyc]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.

[cinyc]

Do you have a link...I guess Santorum did pull out CD1...I'm skeptical of wins for him in CDs 10 and 13...and CD 12 went to Romney for sure?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/MI_GOP_0228_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


As of right now, Santorum leads in 7 CDs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 13.  Romney leads in 7 CDs: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14.  MI-05 is very close, with Romney leading by 38 votes with 4% yet to report.  MI-10 flipped back to Romney.  MI-13 and MI-14 are the most incomplete.  As I said earlier, the Oakland County part of MI-14 is all in on their website.  Romney crushed Santorum in the Oakland part of MI-14, with more votes than the AP tally currently shows.

The most likely scenarios appear to be 8-6 Santorum, 8-6 Romney or a 7-7tie.  If it's 8-6 Santorum, I think the delegate take is tied, as Romney gets 2 delegates for winning the statewide vote.

Uh, if it's 8-6 Santorum, Rick gets 16 CD delegates and Romney gets 12 CD delegates plus two for statewide, giving Santorum a 16-14 win.

You are correct.  The delegate take should be 16-14 Santorum, if he wins 8 CDs, 16-14 Romney, if Santorum wins 7 CDs and 18-12 Romney if Santorum wins 6 CDs.

[cinyc]

Final results unknown unless someone has access to Wayne Co precinct data...

I think its likely 7-7 or 6 Santorum to 8 Romney

Wayne County put its precinct data up here:
www.waynecounty.com/documents/elections_docs/pre1.pdf

Unfortunately, it's not in any Excel-readable format.  It looks like Santorum or Paul won the election day vote in many of the MI-13 precincts, but Romney won the absentees.  Without being able to put the data into Excel, I'm not sure which provided the larger margin, though quick eyeballing seems to give Santorum the win.

[cinyc]

Romney and Santorum are pretty much even in the parts of MI-13 that are not in Detroit.  Paul won Detroit, with Santorum coming in second and beating Romney by about 2,450.  Adding any part of Detroit to the rest of MI-13 should push that CD into the Santorum column.

The most likely scenarios are a 7-7 tie or 8-6 Santorum, depending on the outcome of MI-05.

[cinyc]

AP tally now confirms a Santorum win in MI-13 with 94% in.  MI-05 also flipped back to Santorum.  All but 7 MI-05 precincts are in, and while it could still flip back, Santorum's lead is a sizeable 269 votes. 

8-6 Santorum is looking like the most likely scenario, meaning Santorum won the most delegates, 16-14.