Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

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Fast and furious 2.5k in - Santorum leading 45-36 Paul with 12, Newt with just 7.

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5k - Santorum 41 - Romney 35 Paul 13 Gingrich 7.

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12k in - Santorum 44 - Romney 34 Paul 11 Gingrich just 7.

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3 percent in, Romney bounced back:

Santorum 42 Romney 37 Paul 11 Gingrich 7.

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Well, if what we know from the advance voting is truly the quarter pole, we've got a long night.

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5 percent in. Variance down to +/- 20

Santorum still in the lead by 500.

Santorum+ Romney guaranteed to finish 1-2.

Advance polls are now +/- 5. Romney isn't going to come out with more than a 45-35 lead in advance polls.

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Romney cap is now 43-36. 7 point maximum Romney lead.

11 in;

Santorum 41 Romney 38 Paul 11 Gingrich 7.

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Who on earth is calling it?

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These are absentees still, right? Romney +3 probably isn't going to be enough.

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Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.

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Santorum chipping away at the lead. *sigh*

This is gonna be a long night.

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Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.

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Even if they aren't, it's still TCTC.

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Romney cap still 44. 1/3rd of the way through. Best case, 44-35

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Wow, Gingrich down to 6. Variance here still might not make him relevant. That's sad.

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Still TCTC.

What did you tell us after Iowa -

Never. Give. Up.

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11k, margin is narrowing.

What do I get if Santorum comes from behind?

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Still TCTC halfway in.

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AZ + MI were considered gimmes for Mitt. This is what we folks in the south call a raid. You damage the enemy by raiding on his home turf.

Santorum, if he wins in MI - Mitt is likely done. Mitt had his back up against the wall and still hasn't disposed of the challenger.

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Splits the delegates from MI and a win in WA to counter AZ - win for Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

This race ain't over by a long shot.

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3 point lead. Same as it's pretty much always been. TCTC.

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We shall see.

If the margin is twice the variance I will call it. Until then - no.

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

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AZ in 3 percent 20 point lead for Romney. Still too early to call.

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Lots of precincts still out there that haven't reported at all - and Santorum just needs to get back some of what's already come from Detroit.

And there we go - 50 in AZ right at 10pm EST. The networks are pretty good.

Looks like Rick made the right choice. ARG was way off.  

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Santorum's also winning among Very conservative and conservative.

So if Mittens wants to complain about Reagan democrats crossing over, he needs to take a hard look at the Rockefellers. He's consistantly won among independents and moderates.

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If Mitt wants a closed primary - then the indies and moderates go too.