Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[yourelection]

Is there a link to the Intrade figures?

[yourelection]

Democrates in MI looking to embarrass Romney?

[yourelection]

Is there a link to the Intrade figures?

intrade.com is usually the best source.

Thanks

[yourelection]

Does anyone here actually actively participate in intrade?

[yourelection]

Does anyone here actually actively participate in intrade?

Yes.

Interesting concept. Different than a poll. Not representative, but I imagine since real money is involved that the results might be fairly accurate.

[yourelection]

If the exit polls are right and 10% of MI voters are Dems, is this a fair way to pick a candidate for the republican party?

[yourelection]

CNN calls it "Democratic Mischief in Michigan"

[yourelection]

Courting Dem voters is a not a dumb idea, but it does taint the results of the primary. Interesting to see that Dems choose Santorum because they think Romney is more dangerous. That is actually a plus for Romney, isn't it?

[yourelection]

Wine? More like coffee. This looks llike its going to be a long night

[yourelection]

CD Scorecard:
Santorum leading in 7; Romney leading in 6; No results in 1.

MI-01 Santorum +3
MI-02 Santorum +20
MI-03 Santorum +3
MI-04 Romney +3
MI-05 Romney +7
MI-06 Santorum +8
MI-07 Santorum +5
MI-08 Romney +5
MI-09 No Results
MI-10 Santorum +8
MI-11 Romney +19
MI-12 Romney +7
MI-13 Santorum +10 (Undeclared in second)
MI-14 Romney +42

Nice! Where did you get these numbers?

[yourelection]

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

[yourelection]

AZ is not insignificant for Romney.

[yourelection]

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

Nothing at all weird about that. Done often enough in safe elections in the US.

And in Germany (and Europe for the most part), the exit polls are considered to be practically the results. Politicians concede defeat and declare victory based off of them.

In last few election I remember exit poll getting a bad name. Which tells me CNN is 1) wanting to be first in making a projection and 2) that they are very confident in the exit poll.

[yourelection]

I'm tempted to make a projection in MI, but I'll hold back for a little longer.

[yourelection]

1) Santorum loses all Delegates in AZ and will split Delegates in MI
2) Double wins be Romney in AZ and MI

1 + 2 = Loss of momentum for Santorum -> worsening media image -> more difficult to fund raise

Bottom line: not a good night for Santorum, boost for Romney

[yourelection]

... and Santorum takes an 8-5 lead in the CDs.  MI-01, MI-03, MI-04 and MI-05 are really close, with the lead switching hands often.  MI-09 is still all out.

We could have the situation that Romney wins the state overall and Santorum gets more Delegates.

Still Santorum will not get the momentum from gaining more delegates than Romney.

[yourelection]

Still TCTC halfway in.

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AZ + MI were considered gimmes for Mitt. This is what we folks in the south call a raid. You damage the enemy by raiding on his home turf.

Santorum, if he wins in MI - Mitt is likely done. Mitt had his back up against the wall and still hasn't disposed of the challenger.

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Splits the delegates from MI and a win in WA to counter AZ - win for Santorum going into Super Tuesday.

This race ain't over by a long shot.

The republican nomination is not over at all, but Romney should get a boost coming out of these primaries. He has not really been able to profit from his boosts in the past, though.

[yourelection]

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

The media coverage is the key. If they promote Romney as a winner, it should give him a boost. The total delegate count is also not unimportant. Still he has an uphill battle and like I said he has not been able to make much out of his past boosts.

Still for Santorum, he will lose his surge coming out of the last three victories and will also lose a lot of the media coverage that he has had. He will have an even harder time after tonight.

[yourelection]

Not a bad speech by Romney. Good jabs at Obama, short and to the point. That should give him some plus-points as well.

[yourelection]

So I've added my thoughts on the primaries to the blog (http://www.yourelection.net/2012/02/michigan-and-arizona-primary-2012/) and it's now time to call it a night.