2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Vasall des Midas]

The "blanket primary" this early in the year, outside election season, is completely antidemocratic. It is also, of course, not describable as a "primary" without purposeful lying. It's the first round of the general election, with the second round following - and that is the problematic aspect - a ridiculous five months later. That there will be a runoff even in case of a majority is hardly sufficient as a face-saver (all the first round majorities bar one that I recall occurred in districts with only token opposition anyhow.)

[smoltchanov]

I can agree that it's the first round of general election, but see nothing bad in it. But i absolutely disagree that "5 month before general election" is "outside election season": after all - the first Congressional and state legislative primary this year were in Ohio 3 month ago. If i would be a person to decide - such "top 2" primary would be in all 50 states))) I "love" present-day US political parties "so much"))))))))

[Vasall des Midas]

Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point.

[smoltchanov]

Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point.

Well, may be. But i am not to blame for somebody's laziness. Republicans generally came to vote 2 days ago, Democrats - generally not (especially hispanics). Who is to blame, but themselves? If you don't give a damn about process, you get... what you deserved.

[Vasall des Midas]

It makes just as much* sense to blame you personally, and I choose to. It's all your fault.

*as in, none. It makes no sense to blame people for what is evidently a systemic flaw.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - people's flaw. If people doesn't pay due attention to electoral process - they lose the right to complain, that "they are represented by wrong people". Everything was in their hands, they could at least to try to elect people THEY want. If they didn't - there were another people with another views, who CARED  and elected "their" people. It's all that simple)))

[Vasall des Midas]

[ottermax]

We probably should wait a few more election cycles before judging the merits of the blanket primary. I think it may give rise to some new patterns after people become accustomed to it, and other parties realize how they can use the system to wedge their issues.

[smoltchanov]

We probably should wait a few more election cycles before judging the merits of the blanket primary. I think it may give rise to some new patterns after people become accustomed to it, and other parties realize how they can use the system to wedge their issues.

Here i fully agree. IMHO, this time it's influence was more felt among Democrats, with slightly more successfull "moderate" candidates then usual, but in future it must influence Republicans too...

[rob in cal]

I thought there were about 3-4 GOP held districts in California where the Dems were hoping for a pickup opportunity.  Anyone know which ones they are, and how the primary vote went down in those districts?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Prop. 29 might pass after all. It's up to 49.6% (up from 49.3% Wednesday). It's trailing by 37,000 votes. The SOS says that there are over a million ballots left to be processed.

[RogueBeaver]

Allen officially clinches in VA.

[Kevinstat]

1 precinct in in Maine so far, the town of Crawford in Washington county.  It appears that 16 Republicans and only 1 Democrat voted in that town from the totals.

[mondale84]

Where is everyone getting the numbers?

[Kevinstat]

For Maine, I'm using both the Bangor Daily News ( http://maineelections.bangordailynews.com/index.php )  and the AP ( http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/ME_Page_0612.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS for statewide totals and http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/ME_Page_0612.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS for totals by municipality), the latter of which has more precincts reporting now.

[shua]

VA GOP Senate Primary: Allen 65.4, Radtke 23.1, Marshall 6.8, Jackson 4.8

[nclib]

With 39% precincts in, North Dakota's deceptive "religious freedom" amendment, that among other things could allow a man to beat his wife and children if his religious beliefs say so, is losing 62%-38%.

[MilesC56]

In the ND-AL race, Cramer beat Kalk 54/46. Mason-Dixon's recent poll had Cramer up by 39.

[MilesC56]

Here's where we are in the AR-01 D runoff. With pretty much everything in, Scott Ellington (red) is on track to beat Clark Hall (blue) by a few hundred votes.

5% color scale.

[smoltchanov]

Some impressions:

VA - Allen and Goodlatte underperformed rather severely

ND -  The same about Berg, plus party establishment was rather humiliated with Cramer beating Kalk.

SC - If results in SC-07 will hold  Democrats may forget about this district, even if  Bauer with all his baggage will be nominee. Too few blacks and too many whites, who will not vote for Black, especially a "recent carpetbagger from Georgia"

AR - Most likely AR-01 will stay Republican (narrow Ellington win didn't impressed me at all) and AR-04 will flip - despite  Jeffress impressive run-off win  and good messenger skills - it's impossible to win congressional campaign without money and good PR (it was possible 50 years ago). Especially against Cotton with all his money and, generally, a well-oiled campaign...

AZ - Very good win for Barber. Republicans must never nominate Kelly again, even for doorkeeper, and run McSally instead..

NV - Not impressed by neither Tarkanian, nor Oceguera

ME - Democrats nominated a far-far-left (though energetic) candidate for Senate, Republicans - former moderate, who veered to the right during primary campaign. King's task, probably, became easier, and his chances - better.

[JulioMadrid]

How is Gloria Bromell Tinubu considered a carpetbagger? She's spent all her live in SC, and was a state representative in Georgia for only 1.5 years. She should be seen as a carpetbagger IN Georgia, not in SC.

EDIT: Anyway, she'll lose badly even against Bauer... She's the new Alvin Greene.

She's trying to hide her past in her web, look: http://www.gloria4congress.com/209/

LoL

[smoltchanov]

How is Gloria Bromell Tinubu considered a carpetbagger? She's spent all her live in SC, and was a state representative in Georgia for only 1.5 years. She should be seen as a carpetbagger IN Georgia, not in SC.

EDIT: Anyway, she'll lose badly even against Bauer... She's the new Alvin Greene.

She's trying to hide her past in her web, look: http://www.gloria4congress.com/209/

LoL

Thanks for correction. I based my conclusions on her LAST years in Georgia..

[RogueBeaver]

Next up: Hatch v. Llljenquist in Utah. Should be a comfortable Hatch victory.

[smoltchanov]

Next up: Hatch v. Llljenquist in Utah. Should be a comfortable Hatch victory.

Yes. And then nothing more until August)))

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.