2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? First Cotton was up 92-5, now Rankin up 66-31... with hardly anything (0.2%) reporting. This sure is weird so far.

[RogueBeaver]

Never mind. Now a nip-n'-tuck with Cotton ahead 50-47.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Meanwhile in AR-01, Clark Hall is losing to some guy who raised about $50k.

[RogueBeaver]

Not that it'll make a difference. I'm guessing the 4th is taking so long to report (75 minutes since poll closing and only 3% in) because it's so rural.

[RogueBeaver]

Now they're within 80 (no joke!) votes, with Rankin ahead.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It'll be kind of silly if this heads to a runoff because of that other guy and his 3-4% of the vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Cotton pulls ahead 52-44 with 23% reporting... but still a ways to go. The outcome might be delayed 2 weeks but it won't be changing.

[RogueBeaver]

53-43 with 29% in.

[RogueBeaver]

Palin just endorsed Hatch on Greta. (H/T PowerLine)

[RogueBeaver]

54-41 Cotton with 44% in. Barring a major shift, looks like he wins outright.

Here's the video of Palin's Hatch endorsement.

http://www.therightscoop.com/sarah-palin-announces-endorsement-for-orrin-hatch-for-us-senate/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AR-01 goes to a runoff. Good job drawing that 4-0 Republican map, guys.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Texas coming up on Tuesday. On the Republican side, the big enchilada is the Senate primary, where David Dewhurst seems likely to get into a runoff with Ted Cruz, unless Tom Leppert comes from behind and pulls off a second-place finish. Other Republican primaries to watch are the open TX-14 and newly-Republican TX-25 and TX-36. The Democrats have primaries in TX-23 and the newly-Democratic TX-33 and TX-34 (protip: don't pick the indicted DA in the latter).

[RogueBeaver]

Dewhurst is definitely going into a runoff by dint of those pathetic ads he's running on China and immigration. Incumbents (or quasi-incumbents in his case) don't throw the kitchen sink unless they're panicking.

[RogueBeaver]

What to watch tomorrow night:

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/05/five-things-to-1.php

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Early results... Dewhurst at 47%.

Some weird results in the House primaries. Steve Stockman, former one-term Congressman, is leading the pack in TX-36 with 27% despite raising nearly no money. Surely he can't have that much residual name recognition?

Also, I thought Michael Williams was supposed to be a big up-and-comer. He's currently at 5% in TX-25, behind five other candidates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, Silvestre Reyes is suddenly in trouble. Early vote has his opponent beating him 51-43.

[Svensson]

Well, guys, I think Reyes is boned.

[ilikeverin]

Next up (AR-4): will Cotton win now or on June 12?

Speaking of AR-04, it turns out that one of the people vying to lose to Cotton in November is my half-third-cousin-once-removed.  That is, my great-great-great-grandfather is his great-great-grandfather, but we are descended from him through different women (as my ggg-grandmother died and our mutual ancestor remarried).

In any case, here's a map of the results, because why the heck not:


Gene Jeffress is in red; my cousin Q. Byrum Hurst is in blue; and DC Morrison is in green.  Jeffress's strongest area of support is in what is presumably his State Senate district.  Hurst is strongest around where he grew up (and where our mutual ancestor settled), Hot Springs in Garland County.  His dad was apparently a State Senator in the area, and was sort of a big deal (or, at least, was WikiNotable).

The race is essentially all but over, as Jeffress has wrapped up the support of DC Morrison, while Hurst seems to be suffering from some financial mismanagement.  Still exciting to learn about, though!  Not very many of my distant cousins have been notable enough to deserve Wikipedia articles.

[Joe Republic]

Where can I get the full results for the TX congressional primaries?  I want to see if my friend's mom won hers.

[Meeker]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/TX_Page_0529.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[Joe Republic]

Thank you sir.

Damn, she lost, but made the runoff.  She only got 13% to Filemon Vela's 41% though, so wish her a lot of luck. 

[Lief]

The 67-year-old Reyes was first elected to Congress in 1996. Reyes received a rare primary endorsement last month from President Barack Obama. The 39-year-old O’Rourke is an El Paso native who says he favors legalizing marijuana but wouldn’t push for that in Congress.

Neat!

[RogueBeaver]

We haven't seen any Heinrich v. Balderas polling in a while. Fully expect Heinrich to win comfortably but wonder what the margin will be.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was one a week ago by the ABQ Journal. It was 51-26 Heinrich, which was the same as PPP's last poll of the race. I'm not bothering to link the news article because it's behind a paywall.

[Vasall des Midas]

Obviously, only races that not only were interesting (winner has at least a chance of getting to Congress) but also map interestingly (no one or two county districts.)