2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[MilesC56]

Hirono 57-Case 40

Also, Democrats are destroying Lingle in turnout.

To be fair, the GOP primary was effectively uncontested (Lingle has 93% against a ton of nonames)

And, this is, 'ya know, Hawaii.

[MilesC56]

Hirono gets the check mark next to her name; with 70% in, she's up 58-41.

If this holds, the poll from Ward Research is looking very accurate, as it had Hirono winning 55-37 in the primary.

[Vasall des Midas]

Tulsi Gabbard vs Kawika Crowley (a man by the way) must be the most oddly firstnamed race in Congressional history.
Incidentally, Tulsi and three of her four siblings have Hindu first names but apparently no Indian ancestry - seems to be three quarters White and a quarter Samoan (also, she is fairly young and was the bluedoggish person in the primary race.) Kawika is a crazy but definitely not a standard-issue crazy.

[Talleyrand]

Tulsi Gabbard vs Kawika Crowley (a man by the way) must be the most oddly firstnamed race in Congressional history.
Incidentally, Tulsi and three of her four siblings have Hindu first names but apparently no Indian ancestry - seems to be three quarters White and a quarter Samoan (also, she is fairly young and was the bluedoggish person in the primary race.) Kawika is a crazy but definitely not a standard-issue crazy.

She wasn't the bluedoggish person in the race. That was Mufi Hanneman, although Gabbard had some controversy regarding her past opposition to gay marriage and ties to socially conservative organizations (including her father). However, she addressed these issues by indicating she now supports gay marriage. I believe she gave an apology for her past views, but I don't remember.

[Vasall des Midas]

Meh, maybe I should have glanced at his stances as well.

[Meeker]

Gabbard would be the first Hindu in Congress. Also the first female combat veteran (along with Tammy Duckworth should she win).

[RogueBeaver]

No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

[smoltchanov]

No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

Still there are interesting races in CT. For example - both parties primaries in CT-05

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Well Gabbard is easily going to be the most attractive person in Congress when she gets in.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.

[smoltchanov]

Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.

May be Republicans will, finally, choose most electable, not the most conservative, as usual, candidate in their primary

[MilesC56]

No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

Wonderful; lets get the WI primary over...I'm sick of seeing all these Neumann ads on every website I go to!

[Keystone Phil]

It was my personal thought that Ryan was going to endorse Thompson some time last week but other things obviously got in the way. I still thought his selection would help Thompson because the Romney team would nudge him to offer some praise/a subtle endorsement. This should be enough.

[RogueBeaver]

It was my personal thought that Ryan was going to endorse Thompson some time last week but other things obviously got in the way. I still thought his selection would help Thompson because the Romney team would nudge him to offer some praise/a subtle endorsement. This should be enough.

Neumann's a personal friend of his. But yeah, this should be enough.

[Vasall des Midas]

Gabbard would be the first Hindu in Congress. Also the first female combat veteran (along with Tammy Duckworth should she win).

I only skimmed this, and it is an attack piece, but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.sunnewscorp.com/component/easyblog/entry/tulsi-gabbard-the-curiously-conservative-and-nepotistic-network-of-a-democratic-candidate.html

An ISKCON ("Hare Krishna") splinter? Cool with me.

I did find this for (sort of) confirmation that it's Butler's group they're referring to when she and her mother call themself Hindus - or rather the sentence "Tulsi's spiritual lineage is the Brahma Madhva Gaudiya Sampradaya", which is the nerdese name for the Hare Krishnas' theological tradition, also used prominently on Butler's website.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

So our primaries are tomorrow and as usual, there's nothing particularly interesting. The only race worth watching is the MN-08 DFL primary, and I haven't followed that as closely as I should've. I do want to see what slate of candidates we get for the state leg though.

But the candidates in MN-08:

Tarryl Clark - Carpetbagger but probably not a big issue (Cravaack's from the wrong part of the district too), former State Senator who ran against Bachmann, endorsees unsurprisingly come from the western part of the district, has some Washington establishment support but the Iron Range machines matter more.
Rick Nolan - Former Congressman from over 30 years ago that probably no one remembers. Apparently the only person outside of Connecticut besides WalterMitty to endorse Chris Dodd in 2008 for President, also endorsed Kennedy in 1980. Personally I wouldn't support him as he's too old to be starting what's essentially a new Congressional career but he does seem to have a bit of a following and won the DFL endorsement.
Jeff Anderson - Duluth City Council President, lots of other endorsements from Duluth and the mining towns.

I'd have to call Nolan the favorite just because of the endorsement and machine politics, though I'd likely support Clark. Of course I'd support any over Cravaack, and any of them most likely will beat him. Regional patterns will be quite interesting...

BTW I need to look up who's best for the School Board seats and competitive judgeships now...

[shua]

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/08/13/northeast-gop-hopeless-choices-linda-mcmahon-chris-shays/

But though there is little reason to believe McMahon can do better the second time around, state party leaders have embraced her rather than Chris Shays, a longtime member of the House of Representatives from Fairfield County. Though he is eminently better qualified to sit in the Senate, many GOP stalwarts disdain him as the quintessential RINO whose liberal stands on social issues, gun control and campaign finance are anathema to conservatives. Faced with a choice between such a RINO (albeit one who was a loyal member of the Republican caucus in the House for decades and something of a fiscal conservative) whom polls show to be a far formidable contender in November and a disreputable and certain loser in McMahon, most Republicans appear to prefer the latter.

Yet oddly enough, Shays appears to be far more supportive of GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan than McMahon. As the Hartford Courant reported, when asked about Ryan’s stands on entitlement reform, the supposed Tea Partier tried to have it both ways. She claimed to like Ryan’s general ideas but disavowed his budget and said she would oppose any plan that touched Medicare. By contrast, the RINO Shays made no attempt to distance himself from Ryan.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/13/chris-shays-last-stand-the-gop-passes-on-a-connecticut-moderate.html

Despite the polls, Shays remains defiantly hopeful, pointing to the fact that his record is much more in line with the traditional Connecticut Republican base and that in a mid-August primary, only about 20 percent of registered Republicans are likely to turn out to vote. “Her support is broader than I would like, but it's paper-thin,” Shays says. “I'm hoping that there will be a group of people who will say ‘you know what, we don't like so much money in politics, I have a chance to prove that I don't like it by voting against someone who's literally trying to buy an election.’ I hope there'll be people who will say, ‘if Chris Shays wins this election, this is going be a Scott Brown race.’

“So if I win this primary, I will not be surprised. Evidently, everybody else will, but I won't be.”

hoping for an upset tomorrow.  I disagree with Shays on a number of issues, but he's a thoughtful, sensible guy, - and stands a chance of at least being competitive in the general.

[RogueBeaver]

CT is a decoy race, not a winnable one. McMahon has the $$$ and marketing skills to keep it at least somewhat competitive. There is no chance in hell of a Republican breaching that federal PVI wall even in a 2010 environment. I've liked McMahon since 2010 and will take her over Shays anyday. Connecticut is as Democratic as California (D+7), no Republican can win a Senate race in either state.

Also LOL at the polls thing. PPP has Murphy up 47-38 over Shays and 50-42 over McMahon. She'll be buying ads in the NYC market, something which Murphy can't do except in very short bursts. And that's the point- decoying, not winning.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

[RogueBeaver]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

You mean Ryan's district? Neumann won by 4 in '94 and 2 in '96, don't overestimate the homeboy factor. He does have some late momentum but on the flip side both he and Hovde have been sliming each other while TT has been above the fray.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

You mean Ryan's district?

Yeah, that too.   Boy, that area (and Wisconsin as a whole) is the center of the universe in American politics these days.

[Senator Gass3268]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

Here are my guesses based off of the recent polling:

Thompson: Being from Elroy in Juneau County, he will probably do the best in the western part of the state that borders the Mississippi River. This is the area of the state that his brother, Ed Thompson, did the best in when he ran as a Libertarian in the 2002 governor race. Here is the map:



Hovde: He is actually from and currently resides in Madison. Before I moved to DC, all I saw driving around the county was Hovde signs. I could definitely see him doing well with the Republicans in Dane County (yes there are some, lol) and Democrats that cross over to vote in the Republican Primary with the efforts of sabotaging Thompson.

Neumann: I would also assume that he would do the best in his old Congressional district, but primarily in Walworth County, which is his home county and the suburbs of Kenosha and Racine. I could also see him doing well in south Waukesha County as it is really close to his hometown of East Troy.

Fitzgerald: Looking at his poll numbers I would guess that the only county he has a chance of carrying is his home county of Dodge.

The two most important areas are obviously going to be the Milwaukee suburbs in Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha and the Fox River Valley (Appleton, Green Bay, Menahsa, Neenah and Oshkosh). I have no idea who's going to win theses areas, but whoever does will win the race.     


   

[cinyc]

Also LOL at the polls thing. PPP has Murphy up 47-38 over Shays and 50-42 over McMahon. She'll be buying ads in the NYC market, something which Murphy can't do except in very short bursts. And that's the point- decoying, not winning.

McMahon is already up in the NYC TV market - and attacking Murphy on his House committee attendance record.  She'd rather face Bysewicz in the general.  I haven't seen any ads for any of the other candidates on NYC OTA TV.  If/when he wins the primary, Murphy will have to have some presence in the NYC TV market or risk falling behind in Fairfield County.  Blumenthal had some ads in the NYC market the last time around.  Not nearly as many as McMahon, who was on so often that it got repetitive, but enough to fight back.

[cinyc]

With about 20% of Florida in, Nelson leads 80-20, Mack leads 60-20 over Weldon.  More votes have been cast in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh...


@davecatanese: Bad news for Thompson? Campaign email blares: "Election officials are adjusting their election projections, and it's DOWN from 20%" #WISEn