2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
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  2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
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Author Topic: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)  (Read 83457 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #575 on: August 14, 2012, 10:10:34 PM »

Neumann endorses Thompson in his concession speech.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #576 on: August 14, 2012, 10:11:39 PM »

Neumann = Perennial Loser 
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #577 on: August 14, 2012, 10:12:28 PM »

Where is everyone getting the live primary results and primary speeches from?  I've been looking for a while.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #578 on: August 14, 2012, 10:13:14 PM »


In both senses.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #579 on: August 14, 2012, 10:13:42 PM »

Where is everyone getting the live primary results and primary speeches from?  I've been looking for a while.

Speech news I'm getting from Charlie Sykes' Twitter feed. Results from Politico.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/WI
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #580 on: August 14, 2012, 10:14:08 PM »

I completely forgot this was tonight. Nothing makes my night better than coming on here and finding out Thompson wins in Wisconsin! Another GOP pickup! Thank you WI Republicans! Smiley
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #581 on: August 14, 2012, 10:15:35 PM »

Yeah, thanks guys. Also thanks to Ryan and Walker for their sly endorsements. Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #582 on: August 14, 2012, 10:18:09 PM »

I still think it will be a toss up in November, but the results tonight definitely put it as a slight R toss up. 
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Supersonic
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« Reply #583 on: August 14, 2012, 10:18:34 PM »

I bet Tammy Baldwin is watching this thinking "Ohhh Sh*t...", haha.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #584 on: August 14, 2012, 10:24:26 PM »

So to those that say money buys elections say about this one? Hovde raised more then double what Thompson did and still loses. Thompson goes into places he hasn't been in 14 years and still remembers people's names trumps the $$$ any day. Besides Thompson having an actual track record of getting things done.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #585 on: August 14, 2012, 10:25:57 PM »

I'll be interested to see the exit polls in November on what % of voters submit a Obama/Thompson ballot. There will a significant proportion and my guess is that Obama would have to get around his polling average of 5-6% for Baldwin to be close.  
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #586 on: August 14, 2012, 10:27:37 PM »

State Senator Lena Taylor (D) on TV: "Oh crap, Thompson won" she basically said she was really hoping Hovde won because Thompson has strong relationships in the state. Wouldn't come out and say it's tougher for Baldwin to win now but she said everything but that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #587 on: August 14, 2012, 10:27:59 PM »

I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #588 on: August 14, 2012, 10:28:28 PM »

"What do Les Aspin, Peter Barca, Russ Feingold, Scott Walker and Tommy Thompson have in common? they've all defeated Mark Neuman.”

Okay, I had to laugh at that one.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #589 on: August 14, 2012, 10:29:00 PM »

AP calls it for Thompson.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #590 on: August 14, 2012, 10:29:07 PM »


At best, it's seat 50.

Democrats pick up Maine and Massachusetts, but lose Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, and Wisconsin leaves the Senate at 50/50. Considering that the latter 4 are all coin flips at this point (and I admit, as is Mass), and you still have a Senate that remains in the balance.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #591 on: August 14, 2012, 10:30:32 PM »

So to those that say money buys elections say about this one? Hovde raised more then double what Thompson did and still loses. Thompson goes into places he hasn't been in 14 years and still remembers people's names trumps the $$$ any day. Besides Thompson having an actual track record of getting things done.

True, that helped, but if Hovde or Neumann had a one on one fight, Thompson would have won. That is the difference between Wisconsin and the many other states were the insurgent won.  
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« Reply #592 on: August 14, 2012, 10:31:28 PM »

MN-08 is less than 30% in, but Nolan has an almost 10 point lead on Clark, and based on what's in I think he has it.
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Vosem
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« Reply #593 on: August 14, 2012, 10:32:52 PM »


Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #594 on: August 14, 2012, 10:33:19 PM »

Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #595 on: August 14, 2012, 10:33:52 PM »

MN-08 is less than 30% in, but Nolan has an almost 10 point lead on Clark, and based on what's in I think he has it.

Its up to 43% and Nolan is up 42-36. Not insurmountable for Clark, but I still think Nolan wins.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #596 on: August 14, 2012, 10:34:12 PM »

I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?

I've only seen one commercial up so far and it didn't address the issue. It also wasn't a very good ad because if you turned it off half way though you would think it was a Pro-Baldwin ad. I think this is in issue that Republicans will and should avoid as it would probably be a turn off to Independent voters in the state.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #597 on: August 14, 2012, 10:38:24 PM »

I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?

I've only seen one commercial up so far and it didn't address the issue. It also wasn't a very good ad because if you turned it off half way though you would think it was a Pro-Baldwin ad. I think this is in issue that Republicans will and should avoid as it would probably be a turn off to Independent voters in the state.

From what I can tell nothing has been brought up about her being a lesbian, except by the liberal groups who are spending money on her behalf. It really doesn't seem that anyone cares that she's gay, it's more about "she's a liberal and we're not" race. I'm sure that the groups (not Baldwin herself) will try to bring it into the race though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #598 on: August 14, 2012, 10:39:47 PM »


Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

As of now the only automatic Republican gain is in NE and probably MO while the same, probably, for the Democrats in ME. The rest (FL, IN, MT, ND, NV, VA, VI & WI) should be competitive.
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Svensson
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« Reply #599 on: August 14, 2012, 10:41:54 PM »


What.
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