Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 21, 2014, 05:47:16 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 Print
Author Topic: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)  (Read 31576 times)
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1846
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #600 on: August 14, 2012, 10:45:03 pm »
Ignore


King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.
Logged

Svensson
NVTownsend
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 646


View Profile
« Reply #601 on: August 14, 2012, 10:49:55 pm »
Ignore


King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.

Ah, fair enough. I thought you meant a straight pickup.
Logged
mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1316
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #602 on: August 14, 2012, 10:52:56 pm »
Ignore

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5772
United States


View Profile
« Reply #603 on: August 14, 2012, 11:02:07 pm »
Ignore

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.
Logged

Illegally selling arms to North Korea, providing most of the money to anti-Morales rebels in Bolivia, and using the remainder as hush money for his three ex-mistrisses. 
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1067
Russian Federation
View Profile
« Reply #604 on: August 14, 2012, 11:14:19 pm »
Ignore

Day's impressions:

FL - Democrats squandered as little chances as they had in FL-02 (relatively liberal black can't win this district), Republicans reciprocated in FL-09 (they needed candiddate with appeal to minority vote), so Grayson is likely to get a new term in Congress. The biggest surprise (obviously) - apparent defeat of Stearns in FL-03

CT - Both Democrats and Republicans (big rarity these days) nominated the most moderate candidates here. So - it will be interesting in November. Esty is probably favored (especially with Obama on ballot and Murphy - McMahon Senate race), but 3rd party Donovan candidacy may be a BIG threat to her.

WI Again, on rare occasion these days, Republicans nominated their most electable (and conservative, but politically sane) candidate in Thompson, refusing to go for ultaconservative firebrands, so it must be very close in November.

MN -The most interesting race (MN-08) is still undecided, but Nolan will probably win. Not bad for his party.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2012, 11:16:50 pm by smoltchanov »Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1316
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #605 on: August 14, 2012, 11:16:39 pm »
Ignore

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.

SO much trolling it's hard to keep it all straight. Connie Sheen Mack is favored ?! Roll Eyes HAHAHAHAHA Biggest joke of the day. Also, Rehberg has been 1-2 points ahead or tied, that's not even a lean. As for ND, Heitkamp is making it close and Berg is too scared to release his internals.
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8197


View Profile
« Reply #606 on: August 14, 2012, 11:44:58 pm »
Ignore

CT Senate primary maps.  Winner (Murphy and McMahon) in green; loser in orange.  

Democratic Primary:


Bysiewicz did best in the Quiet Corner, the Middletown area, and a few random towns in the Naugatuck Valley.  Bozrah was tied.

Republican Primary:


Shays did best in parts of his old Fairfield County CD and in shore towns out east.  
« Last Edit: August 14, 2012, 11:50:52 pm by cinyc »Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5717
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #607 on: August 15, 2012, 01:17:48 am »
Ignore

So for once the Republicans made the right choice. ****.
Logged
Wiz from Wis in Mass
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1188


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -5.57

View Profile WWW
« Reply #608 on: August 15, 2012, 08:42:14 am »
Ignore

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?
Logged
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73032
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #609 on: August 15, 2012, 10:52:24 am »
Ignore

Nolan takes it in MN-8.

TARRYL L. CLARK    17540    32.27%    
JEFF ANDERSON    15977    29.39%    
RICHARD NOLAN    20838    38.34%    

Also in MN-01 the presumed GOP candidate, a crazy right wing state senator lost to another far right candidate, a former state rep from over 20 years ago that's become a bit of a perennial candidate. Walz was never in any danger, but finally nominating this guy shows where the GOP has gone.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3029
United States


View Profile
« Reply #610 on: August 15, 2012, 11:18:16 am »
Ignore

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it. Otherwise, not really.
Logged

incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73032
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #611 on: August 15, 2012, 11:26:07 am »
Ignore

One thing of note about Nolan, he's from and appears to be quite strong in the normally Republican Brainerd area.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
shua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12083
Kuwait


View Profile WWW
« Reply #612 on: August 15, 2012, 03:26:37 pm »
Ignore

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it.
Otherwise, not really.

If only.
Logged

incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73032
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #613 on: August 16, 2012, 12:40:42 am »
Ignore

He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3029
United States


View Profile
« Reply #614 on: August 21, 2012, 07:14:36 pm »
Ignore

He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.
This. They can also gut the law's implementation through reducing appropriations for it, I believe.
Logged

Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3029
United States


View Profile
« Reply #615 on: August 21, 2012, 09:47:54 pm »
Ignore

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/GA_Page_0821.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

In the newly created heavily Republican Georgia's 9th congressional district, the Establishmentarian State Representative Doug Collins defeated Tea Party and Herman Cain backed talk show host Martha Zoller by ten points in the runoff.

Meanwhile, in the 12th district, the GOP race to take on highly vulnerable Congressman John Barrow is very close, but there seems to be something unusual going on with the results. They've been literally the same since 88%, but I think all the votes are probably in. Lee Anderson leads Rick Allen by just over 100 votes. I'm not sure who's the better candidate for the GOP.
Logged

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29042
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #616 on: August 21, 2012, 10:10:30 pm »
Ignore

With 97% in Anderson's lead is 153 votes in GA-12.  Not certain if Georgia has 0.5% or 1% threshold for an automatic recount, but the margin is 0.56%, not counting any write-in votes.  In any case, I think this one will have to wait for the official certification unless Allen concedes sooner.
Logged

People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. — Khaled Hosseini
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15056
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #617 on: August 22, 2012, 02:46:51 pm »
Ignore

Does anyone know what's going on in AZ-6? Last I heard the consensus was that Schweikert was ahead but McCain and Kyl have backed Quayle.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30465
United States


View Profile
« Reply #618 on: August 29, 2012, 06:39:38 pm »
Ignore

So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.


Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #619 on: August 31, 2012, 12:15:50 pm »
Ignore

So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.
69-21. Floorwipe.
Quote
Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert
47-53, so quite close.
Quote
and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.
51-32-17. Also, the race for Democratic paper opponent was decided by 88 votes. And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46. Ed Pastor has no Republican opponent (but a Libertarian), and...
in the new marginal 9th Kirsten Synema won the Democratic primary 42-31-27 and the Republican result was hilariously splintered, Vernon Parker winning with 23% with the next three at 21, 20 and 18.
An openly bisexual apostate Mormon woman vs a Black Republican with ties to the Salvation Army living in miscenegation. I like this race. Cheesy
« Last Edit: August 31, 2012, 12:24:27 pm by Minion of Midas »Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8903


View Profile
« Reply #620 on: August 31, 2012, 04:18:05 pm »
Ignore

Quote
And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #621 on: September 01, 2012, 03:41:53 am »
Ignore

Quote
And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.
True fact.

It was larger then, of course.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #622 on: September 10, 2012, 09:05:04 am »
Ignore



Georgia 12 primary and runoff. Standard Atlas key. Blue is Lee Anderson (34.2 on round 1, 50.3 on round 2), red Rick W Allen (25.7/49.7), green Wright McLeod (24.7), yellow Maria Sheffield (15.3). That county she won doesn't care about primaries in faraway districts, it seems - 17 votes in the primary, for a population of 7500 (and no, it is wholly included in the district, unlike the northernmost and southernmost Savannah River counties shown). No big statewide races to drive up interest.

There's something odd afoot here. I'm not sure how Rick W Allen (Rick Allen, no intitial, is the GOP sacrificial lamb against Sanford Bishop) does so well. He's just some random local biznessman with a not very professional website. Anderson (a state Rep) and McLeod (who's got no previous political experience either) were the guys with the sleek websites and the buzz. Sheffield's the only one who stands out otherwise, as younger, a woman, and shriller about being hardcore Conservative (but they all are.) Her previous electoral experience consists of reaching a primary runoff for a lesser statewide office two years ago, btw (in which she "won a majority of the counties in the new 12th district", ie presumably did not win the district. Population's somewhat concentrated at Augusta after all.)
Anderson also received McLeod's and Sheffield's endorsements after the first round, so that runoff ought theoretically to have been a breeze. Sign of underlying weaknesses of the candidate perhaps? I don't know. I do know the race is being officially recounted as we speak, with McLeod calling on Allen not to demand one - which is hilarious given that he demanded one after the first round with a larger deficit to make up and a higher turnout.

Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
xavier110
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 913
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -7.83

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #623 on: September 11, 2012, 10:42:04 am »
Ignore

Yay primaries! I voted for Jackie Cilley today for governor. She may pull off the upset!
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

View Profile
« Reply #624 on: September 12, 2012, 12:23:03 am »
Ignore

Well, tonight was the end of federal primary season.

Looks like its Hassan/Lamontagne in NH while Cicillene won his primary by a cushy 30-point margin.
Logged


Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines