2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Nagas]

Democrats pick up Maine

What.

King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.

[Svensson]

Democrats pick up Maine

What.

King will more likely than not caucus with the Democrats. In 2010 he wrote a defense of Obama and how he should have been campaigning.

Ah, fair enough. I thought you meant a straight pickup.

[mondale84]

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.

[Vosem]

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.

[smoltchanov]

Day's impressions:

FL - Democrats squandered as little chances as they had in FL-02 (relatively liberal black can't win this district), Republicans reciprocated in FL-09 (they needed candiddate with appeal to minority vote), so Grayson is likely to get a new term in Congress. The biggest surprise (obviously) - apparent defeat of Stearns in FL-03

CT - Both Democrats and Republicans (big rarity these days) nominated the most moderate candidates here. So - it will be interesting in November. Esty is probably favored (especially with Obama on ballot and Murphy - McMahon Senate race), but 3rd party Donovan candidacy may be a BIG threat to her.

WI Again, on rare occasion these days, Republicans nominated their most electable (and conservative, but politically sane) candidate in Thompson, refusing to go for ultaconservative firebrands, so it must be very close in November.

MN -The most interesting race (MN-08) is still undecided, but Nolan will probably win. Not bad for his party.

[mondale84]

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.

SO much trolling it's hard to keep it all straight. Connie Sheen Mack is favored ?! HAHAHAHAHA Biggest joke of the day. Also, Rehberg has been 1-2 points ahead or tied, that's not even a lean. As for ND, Heitkamp is making it close and Berg is too scared to release his internals.

[cinyc]

CT Senate primary maps.  Winner (Murphy and McMahon) in green; loser in orange.  

Democratic Primary:


Bysiewicz did best in the Quiet Corner, the Middletown area, and a few random towns in the Naugatuck Valley.  Bozrah was tied.

Republican Primary:


Shays did best in parts of his old Fairfield County CD and in shore towns out east.  

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

So for once the Republicans made the right choice. ****.

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Nolan takes it in MN-8.

TARRYL L. CLARK    17540    32.27%    
JEFF ANDERSON    15977    29.39%    
RICHARD NOLAN    20838    38.34%    

Also in MN-01 the presumed GOP candidate, a crazy right wing state senator lost to another far right candidate, a former state rep from over 20 years ago that's become a bit of a perennial candidate. Walz was never in any danger, but finally nominating this guy shows where the GOP has gone.

[Talleyrand]

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it. Otherwise, not really.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

One thing of note about Nolan, he's from and appears to be quite strong in the normally Republican Brainerd area.

[shua]

After the past 12 years of watching the Senate... do we really care who has 51 seats? So Mitch McConnell will have some chairmanships...as long as the Dems have 40 seats, and Harry Reid employs scorched earth fillibuster tactics, does it really matter?

Yes, the future of the Affordable Healthcare and Patient Protection Act depends on it. Otherwise, not really.

If only.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.

[Talleyrand]

He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.

This. They can also gut the law's implementation through reducing appropriations for it, I believe.

[Talleyrand]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/GA_Page_0821.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

In the newly created heavily Republican Georgia's 9th congressional district, the Establishmentarian State Representative Doug Collins defeated Tea Party and Herman Cain backed talk show host Martha Zoller by ten points in the runoff.

Meanwhile, in the 12th district, the GOP race to take on highly vulnerable Congressman John Barrow is very close, but there seems to be something unusual going on with the results. They've been literally the same since 88%, but I think all the votes are probably in. Lee Anderson leads Rick Allen by just over 100 votes. I'm not sure who's the better candidate for the GOP.

[True Federalist]

With 97% in Anderson's lead is 153 votes in GA-12.  Not certain if Georgia has 0.5% or 1% threshold for an automatic recount, but the margin is 0.56%, not counting any write-in votes.  In any case, I think this one will have to wait for the official certification unless Allen concedes sooner.

[RogueBeaver]

Does anyone know what's going on in AZ-6? Last I heard the consensus was that Schweikert was ahead but McCain and Kyl have backed Quayle.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.


Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.

[Vasall des Midas]

So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.

69-21. Floorwipe.

Also, Ben Quayle lost to David Schweikert

47-53, so quite close.

and Paul Gosar won the nomination in the heavily GOP district he fled to.

51-32-17. Also, the race for Democratic paper opponent was decided by 88 votes. And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46. Ed Pastor has no Republican opponent (but a Libertarian), and...
in the new marginal 9th Kirsten Synema won the Democratic primary 42-31-27 and the Republican result was hilariously splintered, Vernon Parker winning with 23% with the next three at 21, 20 and 18.
An openly bisexual apostate Mormon woman vs a Black Republican with ties to the Salvation Army living in miscenegation. I like this race.

[nclib]

And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.

[Vasall des Midas]

And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46

I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.

True fact.

It was larger then, of course.

[Vasall des Midas]

Georgia 12 primary and runoff. Standard Atlas key. Blue is Lee Anderson (34.2 on round 1, 50.3 on round 2), red Rick W Allen (25.7/49.7), green Wright McLeod (24.7), yellow Maria Sheffield (15.3). That county she won doesn't care about primaries in faraway districts, it seems - 17 votes in the primary, for a population of 7500 (and no, it is wholly included in the district, unlike the northernmost and southernmost Savannah River counties shown). No big statewide races to drive up interest.

There's something odd afoot here. I'm not sure how Rick W Allen (Rick Allen, no intitial, is the GOP sacrificial lamb against Sanford Bishop) does so well. He's just some random local biznessman with a not very professional website. Anderson (a state Rep) and McLeod (who's got no previous political experience either) were the guys with the sleek websites and the buzz. Sheffield's the only one who stands out otherwise, as younger, a woman, and shriller about being hardcore Conservative (but they all are.) Her previous electoral experience consists of reaching a primary runoff for a lesser statewide office two years ago, btw (in which she "won a majority of the counties in the new 12th district", ie presumably did not win the district. Population's somewhat concentrated at Augusta after all.)
Anderson also received McLeod's and Sheffield's endorsements after the first round, so that runoff ought theoretically to have been a breeze. Sign of underlying weaknesses of the candidate perhaps? I don't know. I do know the race is being officially recounted as we speak, with McLeod calling on Allen not to demand one - which is hilarious given that he demanded one after the first round with a larger deficit to make up and a higher turnout.

[xavier110]

Yay primaries! I voted for Jackie Cilley today for governor. She may pull off the upset!

[MilesC56]

Well, tonight was the end of federal primary season.

Looks like its Hassan/Lamontagne in NH while Cicillene won his primary by a cushy 30-point margin.