2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kinzinger was one of the few Republicans to be more anti-Gaddafi than anti-Obama, so I supported him. Good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As someone who likes the Maryland map and thinks Edwards is being pretty whiny over still having a safe D seat and isn't too fond of some rich guy buying the primary, I'm a little mixed here. But if he can hold the seat, great, we have it, plus that Garagiola attack ad sounds inane beyond words so...

I'm actually rather shocked Bartlett is even running again, he's so old as it is that no one would be surprised if he retired even without the redistricting situation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mia Love won the UT-04 GOP nomination tonight; no primary will be held.

A black Mormon? Well I suppose she's young enough to not remember when they taught black skin was the mark of Cain, if she was even alive then (what year did they abandon that belief?)

Although did she convert? If not then that means her parents were Mormons during that time...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Upon a little research, I see that Gladys Knight also has converted to Mormonism. That equals three black Mormons I know of (the third being that guy in Mali.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't it like a 61% Obama district? The only seat comparable to that the GOP holds is that one in Illinois where the guy barely won by about 3 points against a terrible three time loser candidate in 2010 in Obama's home state with his inflated numbers. So a Tea Party candidate even Phil thinks is terrible is clearly not winning districts like that, but this is J. J. we are talking about...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman is going to appeal to Scranton.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WOW@the geographic polarization. Holden won only two counties, Carbon and Schuylkill. But he got 85.4% in Schuylkill. In Lackawanna he only got 225 and in Luzerne only about 28%.

Schuylkill obviously probably won't vote for Cartwright in the general election, but the Democrats usually don't win it anyway. Better question is if this woman is going to appeal to Scranton.

I don't know; something strange is happening.  Kane defeated the favorite, Murphy.  The "establishment" GOP candidate went down to Smith.  Is it still R +6?

The new PA-17 is Obama 57-42

Here's proof J. J. is trolling by deliberately being dense. Everyone who followed this in the slightest knows that the new PA-17 picked up Scranton and is far more Dem and thus pretty far from R+6, basically the inverse in fact.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Both Altmire and Critz are on the right wing of the Dmeocratic party, so I don't see ideology as a factor there. Obviously was in PA-17.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The fact that smoking rates in California are so low are exactly why I'm shocked they voted it down and fell for the Big Tobacco propaganda. Raising cigarette taxes has been pretty easy in far more conservative states with higher rates of smoking.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

From the Wikipedia article on Barron:

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HP big time. Good thing the whole state establishment is lining up against him (even if the outgoing incumbent isn't.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Gabbard is easily going to be the most attractive person in Congress when she gets in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So our primaries are tomorrow and as usual, there's nothing particularly interesting. The only race worth watching is the MN-08 DFL primary, and I haven't followed that as closely as I should've. I do want to see what slate of candidates we get for the state leg though.

But the candidates in MN-08:

Tarryl Clark - Carpetbagger but probably not a big issue (Cravaack's from the wrong part of the district too), former State Senator who ran against Bachmann, endorsees unsurprisingly come from the western part of the district, has some Washington establishment support but the Iron Range machines matter more.
Rick Nolan - Former Congressman from over 30 years ago that probably no one remembers. Apparently the only person outside of Connecticut besides WalterMitty to endorse Chris Dodd in 2008 for President, also endorsed Kennedy in 1980. Personally I wouldn't support him as he's too old to be starting what's essentially a new Congressional career but he does seem to have a bit of a following and won the DFL endorsement.
Jeff Anderson - Duluth City Council President, lots of other endorsements from Duluth and the mining towns.

I'd have to call Nolan the favorite just because of the endorsement and machine politics, though I'd likely support Clark. Of course I'd support any over Cravaack, and any of them most likely will beat him. Regional patterns will be quite interesting...

BTW I need to look up who's best for the School Board seats and competitive judgeships now...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-08 is less than 30% in, but Nolan has an almost 10 point lead on Clark, and based on what's in I think he has it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nolan takes it in MN-8.

TARRYL L. CLARK    17540    32.27%    
JEFF ANDERSON    15977    29.39%    
RICHARD NOLAN    20838    38.34%    

Also in MN-01 the presumed GOP candidate, a crazy right wing state senator lost to another far right candidate, a former state rep from over 20 years ago that's become a bit of a perennial candidate. Walz was never in any danger, but finally nominating this guy shows where the GOP has gone.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One thing of note about Nolan, he's from and appears to be quite strong in the normally Republican Brainerd area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's probably referring to that the GOP theoretically can repeal the mandate through reconciliation now (because it's now considered a tax), except repealing the mandate and leaving the rest of the bill intact is not what they and especially not the insurance companies want.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wouldn't Sinema serve as a replacement for Pete Stark as atheist representation in Congress if he goes down?