2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[minionofmidas]

I approve of this thread.

[minionofmidas]

lol at the first and second district Democratic primaries, too. Oh, and the "plumber" is Kaptur's GE opponent.

[minionofmidas]

You know, personally, I'm hoping Alabama puts Bachus on the curb. His opponents might be crazies, certainly, but that's nothing new for Alabama - particularly his district - and probably represents them far better than the Chairman of the House Banking Committee does.

How? Pretty sure this is the most affluent district in Alabama. (Though I guess Mobile might beat it if its Blacks were excised like Birmingham's?)

[minionofmidas]

Wait...Albert Gore? You don't mean...

No we don't.

[minionofmidas]

Somewhat unusual type of Wealthy Dude candidate, though. http://www.delaney2012.com/about-john/ (Also, teenage daughters are endorsed.)

Also: Lol at this

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Neither candidate looks all that bad or all that great, but I tend to implicitly trust Donna Edwards on Maryland, so...

[minionofmidas]

Edwards endorsed Delaney because she's pissed about Garagiola's role in redistricting.

See, we have similar instincts.

[minionofmidas]

He won his primary with just 43% fwiw.

[minionofmidas]

Obviously, only races that not only were interesting (winner has at least a chance of getting to Congress) but also map interestingly (no one or two county districts.)

[minionofmidas]

And here is why the blanket primary can be bad. CA-31 is considered a tossup, but the 4 Democrats are trailing the 2 Republicans.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/31

Meanwhile, the reverse is happening in the neighboring 8th district, which has a Republican incumbent:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-congress/district/8

There are Republicans in 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th there. Not exactly the reverse.

Looks like things have changed since the last time I checked.

And ended up in 1st and 2nd.

[minionofmidas]

The "blanket primary" this early in the year, outside election season, is completely antidemocratic. It is also, of course, not describable as a "primary" without purposeful lying. It's the first round of the general election, with the second round following - and that is the problematic aspect - a ridiculous five months later. That there will be a runoff even in case of a majority is hardly sufficient as a face-saver (all the first round majorities bar one that I recall occurred in districts with only token opposition anyhow.)

[minionofmidas]

Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point.

[minionofmidas]

It makes just as much* sense to blame you personally, and I choose to. It's all your fault.

*as in, none. It makes no sense to blame people for what is evidently a systemic flaw.

[minionofmidas]

[minionofmidas]

"Easily"? An incumbent winning by 5.odd is not "winning easily". That's "scraping by".

[minionofmidas]

They ought to have all votes in by now if they were at all competent (oh wait). What were all those late-counted ballots? Dubious absentees?

[minionofmidas]

Tulsi Gabbard vs Kawika Crowley (a man by the way) must be the most oddly firstnamed race in Congressional history.
Incidentally, Tulsi and three of her four siblings have Hindu first names but apparently no Indian ancestry - seems to be three quarters White and a quarter Samoan (also, she is fairly young and was the bluedoggish person in the primary race.) Kawika is a crazy but definitely not a standard-issue crazy.

[minionofmidas]

Meh, maybe I should have glanced at his stances as well.

[minionofmidas]

Gabbard would be the first Hindu in Congress. Also the first female combat veteran (along with Tammy Duckworth should she win).

I only skimmed this, and it is an attack piece, but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.sunnewscorp.com/component/easyblog/entry/tulsi-gabbard-the-curiously-conservative-and-nepotistic-network-of-a-democratic-candidate.html

An ISKCON ("Hare Krishna") splinter? Cool with me.

I did find this for (sort of) confirmation that it's Butler's group they're referring to when she and her mother call themself Hindus - or rather the sentence "Tulsi's spiritual lineage is the Brahma Madhva Gaudiya Sampradaya", which is the nerdese name for the Hare Krishnas' theological tradition, also used prominently on Butler's website.

[minionofmidas]

So according to Green Papers, Flake defeated Cardon in the AZ Senate Primary.

69-21. Floorwipe.

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47-53, so quite close.

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51-32-17. Also, the race for Democratic paper opponent was decided by 88 votes. And Matt Salmon wins the primary for (essentially) Flake's old seat, 54-46. Ed Pastor has no Republican opponent (but a Libertarian), and...
in the new marginal 9th Kirsten Synema won the Democratic primary 42-31-27 and the Republican result was hilariously splintered, Vernon Parker winning with 23% with the next three at 21, 20 and 18.
An openly bisexual apostate Mormon woman vs a Black Republican with ties to the Salvation Army living in miscenegation. I like this race.

[minionofmidas]

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I think Salmon held (essentially) that seat before Flake did.

True fact.

It was larger then, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Georgia 12 primary and runoff. Standard Atlas key. Blue is Lee Anderson (34.2 on round 1, 50.3 on round 2), red Rick W Allen (25.7/49.7), green Wright McLeod (24.7), yellow Maria Sheffield (15.3). That county she won doesn't care about primaries in faraway districts, it seems - 17 votes in the primary, for a population of 7500 (and no, it is wholly included in the district, unlike the northernmost and southernmost Savannah River counties shown). No big statewide races to drive up interest.

There's something odd afoot here. I'm not sure how Rick W Allen (Rick Allen, no intitial, is the GOP sacrificial lamb against Sanford Bishop) does so well. He's just some random local biznessman with a not very professional website. Anderson (a state Rep) and McLeod (who's got no previous political experience either) were the guys with the sleek websites and the buzz. Sheffield's the only one who stands out otherwise, as younger, a woman, and shriller about being hardcore Conservative (but they all are.) Her previous electoral experience consists of reaching a primary runoff for a lesser statewide office two years ago, btw (in which she "won a majority of the counties in the new 12th district", ie presumably did not win the district. Population's somewhat concentrated at Augusta after all.)
Anderson also received McLeod's and Sheffield's endorsements after the first round, so that runoff ought theoretically to have been a breeze. Sign of underlying weaknesses of the candidate perhaps? I don't know. I do know the race is being officially recounted as we speak, with McLeod calling on Allen not to demand one - which is hilarious given that he demanded one after the first round with a larger deficit to make up and a higher turnout.