2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[smoltchanov]

2nd place US Senate - Who gets to lose to DiFi in November? I hope it's a real Democrat.

Feinstein is already not a "real Democrat"? Both Democratic and Republican loonies (especially on partisam sites, but occasionaly here too) continue to amaze me and make me laugh...

[smoltchanov]

OK, she's no Manchin, but she's pretty disappointing compared to Boxer, she's not. Or Sherrod Brown, who represents a much more conservative state.

Nevertheless, she is quite reliable moderate-liberal Democrat. No one will mistake her for a Republican. And by my standards there is no really conservative Democrats in Congress anymore (just as there are no liberal Republicans) - even Boren is moderate-conservative (especially when compared with really conservative Democrats of the past)

[smoltchanov]

Manchin is pretty right-wing, so whatever.

Manchin? Absolute centrist, may be even slightly left-of-center. At least - on economy...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, Feinstein is awful. I'd love to see a real Democrat win.

Far-left loonie?))) No, thanks))))

[smoltchanov]

CA-31 is certainly an upset. Turnout combined with the undemocratic nature of the top 2 primary system screwed the Democrats there. The other cases where a party got shut out were not upsets.

Here's the list

CA-08 - Democrats ran, but 2 Republicans advanced
CA-31 - Ditto

CA-30 - Republicans ran, but 2 Democrats advanced
CA-33 - Republican candidate, but a Democrat and an Independent advanced.

In addition, there was 1 district (CA-23) where no Democrat ran, and  several districts where no Republican ran.

I greatly prefer present system (Independent redistricting comission and "top 2") to pprevious. California was ABSOLUTELY boring state under previous system: congressional and state legislative distrivcts gerrymandered to such extent that usually there was maximum 1-2 interesting races in November. And, in addition, results of the primaries were almost always the same: loonies of both paties almost invariably won. I have relatives in California with similar to my modertate views - they cursed loudly each election reading candidates list, and then choose "the lesser evil". That was previous system - thanks God it's in the past..

[smoltchanov]

I can agree that it's the first round of general election, but see nothing bad in it. But i absolutely disagree that "5 month before general election" is "outside election season": after all - the first Congressional and state legislative primary this year were in Ohio 3 month ago. If i would be a person to decide - such "top 2" primary would be in all 50 states))) I "love" present-day US political parties "so much"))))))))

[smoltchanov]

Fine with me, but then have the two rounds follow each other closely.

I think primary vs general election turnout amply proves my point.

Well, may be. But i am not to blame for somebody's laziness. Republicans generally came to vote 2 days ago, Democrats - generally not (especially hispanics). Who is to blame, but themselves? If you don't give a damn about process, you get... what you deserved.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - people's flaw. If people doesn't pay due attention to electoral process - they lose the right to complain, that "they are represented by wrong people". Everything was in their hands, they could at least to try to elect people THEY want. If they didn't - there were another people with another views, who CARED  and elected "their" people. It's all that simple)))

[smoltchanov]

We probably should wait a few more election cycles before judging the merits of the blanket primary. I think it may give rise to some new patterns after people become accustomed to it, and other parties realize how they can use the system to wedge their issues.

Here i fully agree. IMHO, this time it's influence was more felt among Democrats, with slightly more successfull "moderate" candidates then usual, but in future it must influence Republicans too...

[smoltchanov]

Some impressions:

VA - Allen and Goodlatte underperformed rather severely

ND -  The same about Berg, plus party establishment was rather humiliated with Cramer beating Kalk.

SC - If results in SC-07 will hold  Democrats may forget about this district, even if  Bauer with all his baggage will be nominee. Too few blacks and too many whites, who will not vote for Black, especially a "recent carpetbagger from Georgia"

AR - Most likely AR-01 will stay Republican (narrow Ellington win didn't impressed me at all) and AR-04 will flip - despite  Jeffress impressive run-off win  and good messenger skills - it's impossible to win congressional campaign without money and good PR (it was possible 50 years ago). Especially against Cotton with all his money and, generally, a well-oiled campaign...

AZ - Very good win for Barber. Republicans must never nominate Kelly again, even for doorkeeper, and run McSally instead..

NV - Not impressed by neither Tarkanian, nor Oceguera

ME - Democrats nominated a far-far-left (though energetic) candidate for Senate, Republicans - former moderate, who veered to the right during primary campaign. King's task, probably, became easier, and his chances - better.

[smoltchanov]

How is Gloria Bromell Tinubu considered a carpetbagger? She's spent all her live in SC, and was a state representative in Georgia for only 1.5 years. She should be seen as a carpetbagger IN Georgia, not in SC.

EDIT: Anyway, she'll lose badly even against Bauer... She's the new Alvin Greene.

She's trying to hide her past in her web, look: http://www.gloria4congress.com/209/

LoL

Thanks for correction. I based my conclusions on her LAST years in Georgia..

[smoltchanov]

Next up: Hatch v. Llljenquist in Utah. Should be a comfortable Hatch victory.

Yes. And then nothing more until August)))

[smoltchanov]

New York also has congressional primaries on the 26th.

Which have the potential to send the most radical politician in New York to Congress. Should be crazy.

Paladino isn't running for Congress.

I think - they speak about Charles Barron))))

[smoltchanov]

Well, the NC runoff is today. As I said before, I'm pulling for Robert Pittenger in NC-09 R primary.

Jim Pendergraph has the potential to be worse than Myrick; his signs campaign even look exactly like hers did.

If i remember correctly - Pittenger is very conservative state Senator, and Pendegraph is former Democrat. Is it possible to be "more conservative"?)))))

[smoltchanov]

No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

Still there are interesting races in CT. For example - both parties primaries in CT-05

[smoltchanov]

Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.

May be Republicans will, finally, choose most electable, not the most conservative, as usual, candidate in their primary

[smoltchanov]

Day's impressions:

FL - Democrats squandered as little chances as they had in FL-02 (relatively liberal black can't win this district), Republicans reciprocated in FL-09 (they needed candiddate with appeal to minority vote), so Grayson is likely to get a new term in Congress. The biggest surprise (obviously) - apparent defeat of Stearns in FL-03

CT - Both Democrats and Republicans (big rarity these days) nominated the most moderate candidates here. So - it will be interesting in November. Esty is probably favored (especially with Obama on ballot and Murphy - McMahon Senate race), but 3rd party Donovan candidacy may be a BIG threat to her.

WI Again, on rare occasion these days, Republicans nominated their most electable (and conservative, but politically sane) candidate in Thompson, refusing to go for ultaconservative firebrands, so it must be very close in November.

MN -The most interesting race (MN-08) is still undecided, but Nolan will probably win. Not bad for his party.