OH PrimR: University of Cincinnati: Santorum leads by double digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio President by University of Cincinnati on 2012-02-26

Summary:

Santorum:	37%
Romney:	26%
Gingrich:	16%
Paul:	11%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ajb]

A loss on this scale in Ohio would be pretty devastating to the Romney campaign. It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next week, post-Michigan.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Wow. If he can keep up the surge until Super Tuesday, he'll have a very good shot at this thing.

[J. J.]

Wow. If he can keep up the surge until Super Tuesday, he'll have a very good shot at this thing.

He didn't.

Uni poll, and the world just changed.

[NHI]

Wow. If he can keep up the surge until Super Tuesday, he'll have a very good shot at this thing.

He didn't.

Uni poll, and the world just changed.

[ajb]

Wow. If he can keep up the surge until Super Tuesday, he'll have a very good shot at this thing.

He didn't.

Uni poll, and the world just changed.

Maybe. We'll see soon enough.

[Lief 🗽]

This lead will have evaporated by next Tuesday.

Oh well, a brokered convention would have been fun, but at least Obama gets to run against the weaker of the two candidates.

[Sam Spade]

UofC poll is a has a top-notch track record in general elections, so don't dismiss so quickly.

I have never really seen how Mitt wins Ohio without the field being really divided, but maybe I'm missing something. (i.e. everyone under 30%)

[ajb]

This lead will have evaporated by next Tuesday.

Oh well, a brokered convention would have been fun, but at least Obama gets to run against the weaker of the two candidates.

I wouldn't underestimate Romney's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He's done it before.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ohio is more socially conservative than Michigan, has less unionized labor, and he won't have even his weak home state advantage. I'd be surprised if Santorum doesn't win, though it'll be close.

[J. J.]

This lead will have evaporated by next Tuesday.

Oh well, a brokered convention would have been fun, but at least Obama gets to run against the weaker of the two candidates.

I don't know if that lead will "evaporate," but I would expect it to shrink.

[Eraserhead]

Oh, I'd be shocked if the lead wasn't gone... not only do I expect Romney to be leading in the next batch of polls from here but I wouldn't be completely surprised if Gingrich is in contention for second with Santorum.

[big bad fab]

What's the media market in OH ?

Can money and ads make Romney win here, like in Florida and Michigan ?
That would be fine for him: if he wins Ohio, it's basically over, as he'll win anyway VA, Illinois, Indiana, NJ, NY, California and be able to lose PA and TX.

[Reaganfan]

What's the media market in OH ?

Can money and ads make Romney win here, like in Florida and Michigan ?
That would be fine for him: if he wins Ohio, it's basically over, as he'll win anyway VA, Illinois, Indiana, NJ, NY, California and be able to lose PA and TX.

Every five minutes on TV and Radio: Why Rick Santorum is bad.

[Yank2133]

What's the media market in OH ?

Can money and ads make Romney win here, like in Florida and Michigan ?
That would be fine for him: if he wins Ohio, it's basically over, as he'll win anyway VA, Illinois, Indiana, NJ, NY, California and be able to lose PA and TX.

Every five minutes on TV and Radio: Why Rick Santorum is bad.

Yeah, it has nothing to do with what Frothy is actually saying.....just the old 'liberal" media.

[cinyc]

What's the media market in OH ?

Can money and ads make Romney win here, like in Florida and Michigan ?

There are multiple media markets in OH - off the top of my head, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Toledo, Lima, Dayton and Steubenville-Wheeling - and one or two others I probably missed.  The three Cs would be the most expensive, although probably not as expensive as Miami.  Still, Romney would have to spend a lot to advertise on a Florida-like level.

[J. J.]

The five major media markets in Ohio, with a few minor ones (Zanesville):

Cleveland
Dayton
Toledo
Columbus
Cincinnati

Some of the eastern parts of the state are in the markets of neighboring states (10%-15% of the population).

http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/ohio.gif

[J. J.]

There is another factor, MI media bleeds into the Toledo.  Romney has a leg up on that.

[big bad fab]

Multiple media markets, collateral effect from a (small) win in Michigan: good for Mitt.

But is PA's influence in eastern Ohio negligible or good for Rick ?

And Rick is probably able to concentrate only on OH and TN which aren't so far away, while Mitt should also campaign in Mass., VA and VT (he can't afford registering disappointing results there, can he ?), maybe Idaho, apart from Ohio itself.