Future of the GOP

[BYUmormon]

 I believe that after all the 20 year olds of 2012 have died the Republicans will not win another presidential election for 50-60 years at least. I believe this because of the decline of Christianity and moral values. However, a new party could arise that believes in the economics of the Republican party, and the social values of the Democrats(you do not have to agree with this to agree with the theory). What is your opinion?

[asexual trans victimologist]

When you're talking about the 20-year-olds of 2012 dying off you're already looking at the late 2060s or early 2070s. I think it's highly unlikely that the parties still will have the same ideologies that they have now by then. It's also entirely possible that society may become more 'conservative' again in some areas for all we know. I think it's bizarre to try to predict this sort of thing this far out.

I voted (or was going to vote before the poll was locked) partially because I do think you're correct in that many (not all) current Republican social talking points will become sure losers within the next decade or so, but there will always be new social flash points, or old ones that get dredged up again.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

No, I don't agree.

My theory:

GOP loses in 2012, and in 2016.
* Becomes Minor Party by 2020.
* By 2035 GOP collapses


or

GOP loses in 2012, wins big in 2016.

[BYUmormon]

No, I don't agree.

My theory:

GOP loses in 2012, and in 2016.
* Becomes Minor Party by 2020.
* By 2035 GOP collapses


or

GOP loses in 2012, wins big in 2016.

          Actually I think you agree with me. The theory is that after the 20 year olds of 2012 have all died the GOP will not win a presidential election for a long time, which I believe you agree with me on. I will try to make it more clear that when I say "However, a new party could arise that believes in the economics of the Republican party, and the social values of the Democrats." I don't mean that you have to agree with that, as it is not part of the main theory.

[Communists For McCain]

Defeatist much guys?

[Χahar]

That's ridiculous, of course.

[© Tweed the Younger]

there will be nuclear war/winter by 2070.

[Vosem]

Republicans control a House of Congress. They're a major party and aren't going anywhere anytime soon. It's perfectly possible that they'll survive but be locked out of the presidency for 12 years or even more. Remember in 2005 Democrats were about to die off?

[BYUmormon]

Republicans control a House of Congress. They're a major party and aren't going anywhere anytime soon. It's perfectly possible that they'll survive but be locked out of the presidency for 12 years or even more. Remember in 2005 Democrats were about to die off?

      well the 20 year olds of 2012 wont all be dead any time soon, and they don't have to die off, as long as they don't win another presidential election for about 55 years after all the 20 year olds of 2012 die off. It is a bit far to predict-thats why it is only a theory.

[Old Europe]

They'll lose in 2012 and win the White House again in 2016. That's it.

As for what happens in 2070... it's possible that the Republicans and Democrats will be still around, while representing entirely different ideologies. It's too far ahead to make any worthwhile predictions, of course.

[Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.]

It's extremely hard to imagine the GOP not winning the White House in 2016. So no, they're not going to die off anytime soon. However, they may adopt a more libertarian bent in order to appeal to minorities and youths.

And even in the event that they do lose in 2016, they'll absolutely have to win in 2020. I seriously doubt that we'll have another extended two-term president streak as in the time period from 1801-1825.

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

It's extremely hard to imagine the GOP not winning the White House in 2016. So no, they're not going to die off anytime soon. However, they may adopt a more libertarian bent in order to appeal to minorities and youths.

Err what? Minorities are politically populist if anything... even Asians, while often secular(depending on their specific ethnicity, obviously), represent a rather conservative form of secularism. Look at Japan frex.

[Vasall des Midas]

There is nothing to talk about. There is no such thing as a "future" for the GOP.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

99% chanc that our nominee will be Mittens. That would make anyone defeatist.


...Except Politico, and Winfield of course, but they exist for entertainment value.

[greenforest32]

Their current agenda of social and fiscal conservatism is only popular with a shrinking base: old white religious males.

They will have to change or another party will come into existence to replace them (assuming there is still a two-party system).

Anybody saying 2016 is a sure win for Republicans is not looking at the trends.

[BYUmormon]

Then why don't you agree with me? you said that you think that the Republicans are shrinking and will have to get replaced. Why doesn't anyone who says they agree with me agree with me?!

[TJ in Wisco]

Eh, making political predictions 60 years in advance is pretty much impossible. There's no way we could even predict what the main political issues will be by then, much less who's on what side of them. The Republicans will lose the issue of gay marriage, which will turn into something like contraceptives and divorce are today: accepted by most people including the government but opposed only by a handful of religious groups. It will no longer be a major political issue. We'll be fighting over something else that would sound really strange to argue about today.

[BYUmormon]

Well I wouldn't even vote for the conservatives if they changed they're values to those of the Democrats. They would basically be democrats who have the same economic views as the 2012 conservatives, and I would hate them almost as much as Democrats.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

I agree with you on this BYUMormon: Our party is in trouble.

[Vosem]

Their current agenda of...fiscal conservatism is only popular with a shrinking base: old white...males.

And young people, let's not forget them. [the smiley face with the tongue pointing out to the side]

But, yeah, social conservatism as we know it today is slowly dying.

[Vosem]

Eh, making political predictions 60 years in advance is pretty much impossible. There's no way we could even predict what the main political issues will be by then, much less who's on what side of them. The Republicans will lose the issue of gay marriage, which will turn into something like contraceptives and divorce are today: accepted by most people including the government but opposed only by a handful of religious groups. It will no longer be a major political issue. We'll be fighting over something else that would sound really strange to argue about today.

I already support designer babies, we can argue about that

[Yelnoc]

The GOP will become the de facto Libertarian party.

[CathKhan]

Defeatist much guys?

Seriously. Ever hear of a party called the Democrats? They went 24 straight years without victory, had only 2 presidents between 1861 & 1933, suffered through two other periods of being in tge opposition, lasting 16 & 12 years respectively. Ya know what? They went on to hold the Presidency for 5 straight terms & dominated 1 house of congress 1955-1981, & the other 1955-1995. "Oh my gosh, we have a bad field! We're gonna die out automatically!"

[crypto-fascist superhero]

The GOP will become the de facto Libertarian party.

As if...

[Yelnoc]

The GOP will become the de facto Libertarian party.

As if...

I'm talking long term.  Our generation will see to it, I predict.