WA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Romney leads by only five

[realisticidealist]

New Poll: Washington President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-03-01

Summary:

Romney:	37%
Santorum:	32%
Paul:	16%
Gingrich:	13%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[realisticidealist]

Romney probably loses 5, and Paul probably gains 5 just by this being a caucus.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So....tossup. A prediction nightmare. Ugh.

[ajb]

It's looking like today's Rasmussen poll was one data point, not the whole story.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Romney is only +3 among likely caucusers, but +10 among probable caucusers.

Among the 21% of caucusers who self-identify as Democrats (?!), Paul leads with 33% to 28% for Santorum and 27% for Romney.

Romney's entire margin is based on the fact that 14% of likely caucusers are Mormons, where he leads Santorum by 64%-13%.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

14% Mormon ? lol

[realisticidealist]

14% Mormon ? lol

Washington is 3.9% Mormon. I highly, highly doubt they will be 14% of caucus-goers.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

I think Santorum will end up proving to have underpolled here.  Plus, the Romney double-win Momentum will die down a bit by then.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

14% Mormon ? lol

Washington is 3.9% Mormon. I highly, highly doubt they will be 14% of caucus-goers.

Considering that overall turnout will probably be horrendously low, who knows...

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Washington does have some rather organized, insular Mormon communities scattered around in odd places.  I wouldn't really be that shocked if Mormon turnout was that high.  (Also, that would easily be Santorum's strongest performance among Mormons thus far if those results are accurate.)

In any case, tough call.

[realisticidealist]

Granted, unless CNN does an entrance poll, we'll never know for sure.

[Beet]

So according to this poll, 35% of the GOP caucus attendees age 18-29 on Saturday will be self-identified 'liberals', versus only 21% who call themselves 'very conservative'. But among those 65 and older, only 1% will be 'liberal' and 88% will be either 'somewhat conservative' or 'very conservative', with nearly half of all attendees 'very conservative'. These old conservatives also have the most favorable impression of Romney.

Also, among those 18-29, 31% will identify as Mormon, whereas among those over 65, only 10% will identify as Mormon.

[argentarius]

14% Mormon ? lol

Washington is 3.9% Mormon. I highly, highly doubt they will be 14% of caucus-goers.

To be honest they do get out the vote really well for Mitt.

[J. J.]

Washington does have some rather organized, insular Mormon communities scattered around in odd places.  I wouldn't really be that shocked if Mormon turnout was that high.  (Also, that would easily be Santorum's strongest performance among Mormons thus far if those results are accurate.)

In any case, tough call.

It will also be skewed Republican.  Most of the Mormons are Republican.

[ottermax]

Washington is only 3.9% Mormon? I feel like there are actually a lot of Mormons here... I don't doubt the 14% number for a caucus. Think about it - Mormons would then be 8-9% of regular Republican voters at least, and then caucuses are very low turnout.

[Mr. Morden]

Who the heck knows what'll happen in Washington?  In 2008, the state GOP released a bunch of numbers without really saying what they were counting:

link

making it impossible to discern turnout.  Anyway, I doubt the turnout will be any better than CO or MN, which means that the polls are largely meaningless, and anything can happen.  The only thing I would predict is that Gingrich comes in fourth.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

True, we don't even know if they'll count all of the votes.

[Tender Branson]

Can someone else please post and enter all the polls in the next 5 days, because I'm not much online until Tuesday ? Thx.