WA-SurveyUSA: Romney far ahead in Washington, Obama gets 6% among GOP voters

[Tender Branson]

Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,793 Washington state adults 0/29/12 through 03/01/12. Of them, 500 identified themselves as being Republicans registered to vote in Washington. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5aecbef2-0e23-4626-a21b-6b459ef72fcc

[Tender Branson]

Hard to see how Santorum wins this thing today. Expected Paul to do a bit better here, but maybe he does better in the actual caucus than in a closed primary-like poll.

[RI]

An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.

[bgwah]

An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.

Uh, yeah... They're not even polling likely caucus-goers? In that case, let's compare to 2008, where SUSA said (and what the candidates actually got in the caucus):

McCain: 54 (26)
Huckabee: 25 (24)
Paul: 11 (22)
Romney: N/A (15)
Uncommitted: N/A (13)

[Tender Branson]

An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.

Uh, yeah... They're not even polling likely caucus-goers? In that case, let's compare to 2008, where SUSA said (and what the candidates actually got in the caucus):

McCain: 54 (26)
Huckabee: 25 (24)
Paul: 11 (22)
Romney: N/A (15)
Uncommitted: N/A (13)

SurveyUSA even said in their release that their numbers should not be used to project the caucus results:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6f68a86

Because polling caucuses is useless.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol why did they even bother?

[Tender Branson]

lol why did they even bother?

Because a Washington TV station payed them a good amount of money ...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol why did they even bother?

Because a Washington TV station payed them a good amount of money ...  

Ah, I see.    Silly TV noobs. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

They didn't actually do it as a poll to see how the caucus results would turn out.  They never ask a question of who they'll support in the caucus.

[Eraserhead]

I think Romney will probably win but this poll doesn't have any impact on my thoughts one way or the other.

[J. J.]

There are huge problems using this poll, but the 14 point gap is pretty big.  It's a minor point indicating Romney will eke out possibly a very close victory.

That said, unless this is a big win for the winner, I doubt if it will have very much impact on Super Tuesday.

[Keystone Phil]

Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.

[Tender Branson]

Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.

It's not a strange poll. As Inks said above, this poll does not say "caucus poll" anywhere in their release. So it should be treated as a regular closed primary poll with only registered GOP voters. And in this case, Romney would destroy Santorum in Washington state.

[Keystone Phil]

Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.

It's not a strange poll. As Inks said above, this poll does not say "caucus poll" anywhere in their release. So it should be treated as a regular closed primary poll with only registered GOP voters. And in this case, Romney would destroy Santorum in Washington state.

There is no reason to include Obama in a poll with all of the GOP candidates. None.

[J. J.]

While it grandly uncounted Paul, it was a close with Santorum and Romney.

[bgwah]

Huh. And it's 38-24 for Romney and Santorum.

Oh well...

[J. J.]

Huh. And it's 38-24 for Romney and Santorum.

Oh well...

Well, it's 36.7-23.8 for Romney and Santorum, surprisingly. 

[Niemeyerite]

Yes the poll was pretty accurate... if you give almost every undecided to Paul.

[J. J.]

Yes the poll was pretty accurate... if you give almost every undecided to Paul.

We all (including me) thought it would way off.