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Author Topic: WA-SurveyUSA: Romney far ahead in Washington, Obama gets 6% among GOP voters  (Read 735 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 03, 2012, 02:50:13 am »


Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,793 Washington state adults 0/29/12 through 03/01/12. Of them, 500 identified themselves as being Republicans registered to vote in Washington. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5aecbef2-0e23-4626-a21b-6b459ef72fcc
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2012, 02:54:12 am »
Hard to see how Santorum wins this thing today. Expected Paul to do a bit better here, but maybe he does better in the actual caucus than in a closed primary-like poll.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2012, 02:54:26 am »
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An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2012, 03:01:02 am »
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Quote from: realisticidealist on March 03, 2012, 02:54:26 am
An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.

Uh, yeah... They're not even polling likely caucus-goers? In that case, let's compare to 2008, where SUSA said (and what the candidates actually got in the caucus):

McCain: 54 (26)
Huckabee: 25 (24)
Paul: 11 (22)
Romney: N/A (15)
Uncommitted: N/A (13)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2012, 03:08:19 am »
Quote from: bgwah on March 03, 2012, 03:01:02 am
Quote from: realisticidealist on March 03, 2012, 02:54:26 am
An RV poll for a caucus? That's pretty useless.

Uh, yeah... They're not even polling likely caucus-goers? In that case, let's compare to 2008, where SUSA said (and what the candidates actually got in the caucus):

McCain: 54 (26)
Huckabee: 25 (24)
Paul: 11 (22)
Romney: N/A (15)
Uncommitted: N/A (13)

SurveyUSA even said in their release that their numbers should not be used to project the caucus results:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-ad7bd6f68a86

Because polling caucuses is useless.
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2012, 03:38:50 am »
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lol why did they even bother?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2012, 03:43:50 am »
Quote from: Fuzzy on March 03, 2012, 03:38:50 am
lol why did they even bother?

Because a Washington TV station payed them a good amount of money ... Wink
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2012, 03:48:19 am »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on March 03, 2012, 03:43:50 am
Quote from: Fuzzy on March 03, 2012, 03:38:50 am
lol why did they even bother?

Because a Washington TV station payed them a good amount of money ... Wink 

Ah, I see.  Wink  Silly TV noobs.  Grin
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Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel
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« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2012, 03:49:19 am »
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They didn't actually do it as a poll to see how the caucus results would turn out.  They never ask a question of who they'll support in the caucus.
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« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2012, 04:06:10 am »
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I think Romney will probably win but this poll doesn't have any impact on my thoughts one way or the other.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2012, 09:45:05 am »
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There are huge problems using this poll, but the 14 point gap is pretty big.  It's a minor point indicating Romney will eke out possibly a very close victory.

That said, unless this is a big win for the winner, I doubt if it will have very much impact on Super Tuesday.
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J. J.

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2012, 10:10:27 am »
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Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2012, 12:50:20 pm »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 03, 2012, 10:10:27 am
Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.

It's not a strange poll. As Inks said above, this poll does not say "caucus poll" anywhere in their release. So it should be treated as a regular closed primary poll with only registered GOP voters. And in this case, Romney would destroy Santorum in Washington state.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2012, 03:37:20 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on March 03, 2012, 12:50:20 pm
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 03, 2012, 10:10:27 am
Perhaps one of the strangest polls I've seen.

It's not a strange poll. As Inks said above, this poll does not say "caucus poll" anywhere in their release. So it should be treated as a regular closed primary poll with only registered GOP voters. And in this case, Romney would destroy Santorum in Washington state.

There is no reason to include Obama in a poll with all of the GOP candidates. None.
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Quote from: Representative Wyodon on May 06, 2013, 04:31:05 pm
And you're a fucking asshole. How about you try actually contributing something to a debate at some point, or are you too busy kissing Rick Santorum's ass?
J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2012, 09:03:10 pm »
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While it grandly uncounted Paul, it was a close with Santorum and Romney.
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J. J.

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- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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bgwah
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2012, 01:56:26 am »
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Huh. And it's 38-24 for Romney and Santorum.

Oh well...
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2012, 05:23:44 am »
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Quote from: bgwah on March 04, 2012, 01:56:26 am
Huh. And it's 38-24 for Romney and Santorum.

Oh well...

Well, it's 36.7-23.8 for Romney and Santorum, surprisingly. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2012, 07:51:34 am »
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Yes the poll was pretty accurate... if you give almost every undecided to Paul.
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2012, 10:15:08 am »
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Quote from: JulioMadrid on March 04, 2012, 07:51:34 am
Yes the poll was pretty accurate... if you give almost every undecided to Paul.

We all (including me) thought it would way off.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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