Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

[Alcon]

And there we go Whatcom.

What was I saying again?

You were saying that the remaining areas were clearly Santorum>Paul, and that Santorum had beaten Paul in every "moderately sized" county, neither of which were true.

Because of Lynden, no one here is surprised that Santorum beat Paul (and by just 5 points) in Whatcom.  Unless you think Spokane will be heavily Santorum, or Santorum will just slaughter in the Wenatchee area, I'm not sure why you were so certain that Santorum would win the remaining areas by enough to overtake Paul.  You were certainly wrong about Snohomish.

[Alcon]

Santorum overtakes Paul in Pierce County based on new votes, leaving Paul only 12 votes ahead.  Pierce up to 31% reporting.

With unofficial Skagit results, Santorum leads.  No news out of Spokane or the other chunk of King.

I'm hearing Spokane turnout numbers (about 5K) but no results.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Indeed. I was wrong about Snohomish. I didn't expect Snohomish to break for Paul over Santorum. However, Santorum has just equalized. So unless the votes outstanding break for Paul, I don't think Paul can win this.

[Alcon]

Actually, looks like Spokane was about a three-way tie, no Paulslide, according to Twitter:

Romney 1,521
Santorum 1,511
Paul 1,340
Gingrich 411
Uncommitted 273

Paul may be in trouble for 2nd.

[retromike22]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Really? Shows you how often I've seen the prequels.

Ah, the other Scottish dude. Ewan McGregor.

Liam is Irish! hahaha what kind of star wars fan are you?

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I haven't even seen the Prequels other than the last one.

For me there are 4 star wars videos.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

[Wisconsin+17]

I have to say that the Newt bounce tonight is exceptional.

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

[Volrath50]

I'm going to go cry myself to sleep now.






Not really.

[platypeanArchcow]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

[Mr. Morden]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

The map I linked to above says that Adams is 13% Mormon, which is the highest %age in the state.  Assuming that's accurate of course....

[Wisconsin+17]

And that also answers my question too. Interesting.

[bgwah]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

Sorry for answering sooner, but yes, that's largely correct.

Another big boost for Romney in that area stems from the fact that much of it is majority Hispanic. Adams County is 59% Hispanic, much of it recently established (still mostly immigrants and/or under 18). So 13% Mormon is probably something like 1/4th or 1/3rd of the voting eligible population. And then of course an even higher proportion of Republicans, and even higher proportion of people who would bother to go to a caucus.

[Wisconsin+17]

Man I wanna know if I'm right about Paul vs Santorum!

[J. J.]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

Actually, a number of the early Mormons were of German extraction (including a few distant relatives).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

That is true... although Colorado is still unexplained.  Plus, I thought PPP's Romney momentum was overstated in WA, due to what I considered was too high of Mormon numbers and I thought the momentum from AZ/MI wouldn't play as much of a factor today as it did in PPP's poll.

[Alcon]

Skagit and Spokane added in (reports wre legit), plus some more Pierce.  In all cases, Santorum led by Paul by a bit and has taken the lead.  Santorum +226.

All of Chelan and Douglas are outstanding, plus parts of King (75%) and Pierce (57%).

Paul has a few hundred to make up in the remaining King, Pierce and Wenatcheeland totals.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

[Alcon]

Douglas County: Santorum 121, Romney 87, Paul 67, Gingrich 66.

Santorum +280.

[Wisconsin+17]

Edit, CNN has the reverse, Paul up by 250 with not Skagit, Chelan, Douglas or Spokane.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Just missing part of King and Pierce (dotted counties) and all of Chelan and Douglas now:

[Wisconsin+17]

Still TCTC with King tipping for Paul.

See, this is exactly what I was saying. If Paul is going to win, he had to beat Santorum in King, not in the rest of the state. King will be the difference maker for him.

Santorum lost Spokane by 10 measly votes.