Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Out of curiosity, is it possible to make a guess as to how strong Mormon turnout was, by looking at turnout in individual counties?  Which counties have the highest %age of Mormons?

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

And there we go Whatcom.

What was I saying again?

You were saying that the remaining areas were clearly Santorum>Paul, and that Santorum had beaten Paul in every "moderately sized" county, neither of which were true.

Because of Lynden, no one here is surprised that Santorum beat Paul (and by just 5 points) in Whatcom.  Unless you think Spokane will be heavily Santorum, or Santorum will just slaughter in the Wenatchee area, I'm not sure why you were so certain that Santorum would win the remaining areas by enough to overtake Paul.  You were certainly wrong about Snohomish.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Santorum overtakes Paul in Pierce County based on new votes, leaving Paul only 12 votes ahead.  Pierce up to 31% reporting.

With unofficial Skagit results, Santorum leads.  No news out of Spokane or the other chunk of King.

I'm hearing Spokane turnout numbers (about 5K) but no results.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Because of Lynden, no one here is surprised that Santorum beat Paul (and by just 5 points) in Whatcom.  Unless you think Spokane will be heavily Santorum, or Santorum will just slaughter in the Wenatchee area, I'm not sure why you were so certain that Santorum would win the remaining areas by enough to overtake Paul.  You were certainly wrong about Snohomish.

Indeed. I was wrong about Snohomish. I didn't expect Snohomish to break for Paul over Santorum. However, Santorum has just equalized. So unless the votes outstanding break for Paul, I don't think Paul can win this.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Actually, looks like Spokane was about a three-way tie, no Paulslide, according to Twitter:

Romney 1,521
Santorum 1,511
Paul 1,340
Gingrich 411
Uncommitted 273

Paul may be in trouble for 2nd.

[retromike22]

Liam was Qui-Gon, silly.  

Really? Shows you how often I've seen the prequels.

Ah, the other Scottish dude. Ewan McGregor.

Liam is Irish! hahaha what kind of star wars fan are you?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Liam is Irish! hahaha what kind of star wars fan are you?

I haven't even seen the Prequels other than the last one.

For me there are 4 star wars videos.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

I have to say that the Newt bounce tonight is exceptional.

[bgwah]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

[Volrath50]

I'm going to go cry myself to sleep now.






Not really.

[platypeanArchcow]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

[Mr. Morden]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

The map I linked to above says that Adams is 13% Mormon, which is the highest %age in the state.  Assuming that's accurate of course....

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

And that also answers my question too. Interesting.

[bgwah]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

Sorry for answering sooner, but yes, that's largely correct.

Another big boost for Romney in that area stems from the fact that much of it is majority Hispanic. Adams County is 59% Hispanic, much of it recently established (still mostly immigrants and/or under 18). So 13% Mormon is probably something like 1/4th or 1/3rd of the voting eligible population. And then of course an even higher proportion of Republicans, and even higher proportion of people who would bother to go to a caucus.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Man I wanna know if I'm right about Paul vs Santorum!

[J. J.]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

Actually, a number of the early Mormons were of German extraction (including a few distant relatives).

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

ARGH!!!!!!!!

I knew I should've gone with Romney!  Damnit!

Yeah, oh well. I'll just stick the polls from now on.

I did that and it screwed me out of Colorado though, and Santorum did better than the polls in Iowa, so I was confident in the add 7% or so to Santorum's poll numbers and you'll be safe method, but apparently that's not so good afte all.

You can still use polls to determine who has the momentum. Santorum had the momentum going into Iowa, hence my >20% Santorum prediction. Polling showed us momentum was going to Romney hard in WA and I ignored it.

That is true... although Colorado is still unexplained.  Plus, I thought PPP's Romney momentum was overstated in WA, due to what I considered was too high of Mormon numbers and I thought the momentum from AZ/MI wouldn't play as much of a factor today as it did in PPP's poll.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Skagit and Spokane added in (reports wre legit), plus some more Pierce.  In all cases, Santorum led by Paul by a bit and has taken the lead.  Santorum +226.

All of Chelan and Douglas are outstanding, plus parts of King (75%) and Pierce (57%).

Paul has a few hundred to make up in the remaining King, Pierce and Wenatcheeland totals.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Douglas County: Santorum 121, Romney 87, Paul 67, Gingrich 66.

Santorum +280.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Edit, CNN has the reverse, Paul up by 250 with not Skagit, Chelan, Douglas or Spokane.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Just missing part of King and Pierce (dotted counties) and all of Chelan and Douglas now: