Washington GOP caucus **results thread**
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Author Topic: Washington GOP caucus **results thread**  (Read 16654 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #325 on: March 04, 2012, 12:08:53 AM »

FWIW it looks like Romney will win the straw vote in 9 of the 10 Congressional Districts. Santorum won the the other one (5th CD).
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #326 on: March 04, 2012, 12:10:19 AM »

Heh, so Santorum gets him some delegates? That's good news. 5 delegates?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #327 on: March 04, 2012, 12:11:40 AM »

I'm not so sure why people are so surprised.

So, tonight is a victory for sanity if that means anything at all. It means that our essential analysis of the situation is correct, and should prevail on super tuesday. OH will determine the nomination.

A win in OH for Santorum over Romney means that he should get the nomination. A win by Romney means that he should get the nomination, as he'll have enough support with IL + OH, despite losing in MI with the delegate split.

Uh, no.  If Santorum wins Ohio that does not mean he wins the nomination.  Regardless of whether it's Romney or Santorum, Ohio will very likely be close, and the delegates awarded will, consequently, be close.  This is a game of delegate numbers.  

Romney is in much better position than Santorum is in for the long haul.  
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #328 on: March 04, 2012, 12:19:31 AM »

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Given the states, and the delegate counts - Santorum needs Ohio. Romney wins if he can pick up IL plus one other rust belt state. MI was a push, so that doesn't help him.

Santorum should be able to hold on if he can win in Ohio. Ohio is the toughest rust belt state for him to win, which is why he's actually in decent shape so far. But he needs OH, TN + OK on tuesday.

Newt needs GA.
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Alcon
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« Reply #329 on: March 04, 2012, 12:24:26 AM »

King is now listed as 75% in and Paul leads by 271, so Santorum actually beat him in the last batch.  My Southeast County hypothesis may have been spot-on, but at this rate it wouldn't be enough.
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Meeker
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« Reply #330 on: March 04, 2012, 12:25:20 AM »

Is the WA GOP going to release the results by LD at some point?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #331 on: March 04, 2012, 12:31:38 AM »

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Just plain ol' variance at this point. Congrats to the Paul folks. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #332 on: March 04, 2012, 12:32:57 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 12:41:59 AM by Alcon »

I'm not sure about LD results, but it seems reasonable, considering that the big counties are reporting by LD.

In other news, Southeast King County must have been in the last dumps (where Santorum led) because the remaining LDs are all affluent Seattle suburbs and Seattle's most liberal, urban district.  Expect Romney to do very well in the final batch, and Santorum to do poorly.  I'm ready to call this for Paul in 2nd.

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edit: Full disclosure that the 32rd and 45th have some more working-class voters in Shoreline and rural-ish areas, respectively, but the 41st is probably Washington's richest LD.  The 43rd has a puny Republican population, and may go for Paul; McCain didn't break 10%.  None of these areas seem like they'd be rich in Santorum votes.
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bgwah
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« Reply #333 on: March 04, 2012, 12:42:04 AM »

I forget if this has been confirmed --- are they using old or new districts?
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Alcon
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« Reply #334 on: March 04, 2012, 12:44:41 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 12:48:40 AM by Alcon »

I forget if this has been confirmed --- are they using old or new districts?

I don't know how they'd use new districts, since the precincts aren't finished in virtually any county...so probably old, unless they split up precincts between LDs and allocated delegates somehow.  Sounds like a nightmare to me.

Although actually, I think that's exactly what the Democrats are doing, and I think it's a terrible idea.
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Alcon
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« Reply #335 on: March 04, 2012, 01:18:40 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 01:22:34 AM by Alcon »

97% reporting

King now 81% in, Paul back up to +323.

Romney 17,922
Paul 11,998
Santorum 11,675
Gingrich 5,066
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Alcon
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« Reply #336 on: March 04, 2012, 01:29:17 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 01:31:00 AM by Alcon »

99% reporting

King now 88% in, Paul down slightly to +313.  Great for Romney; may have been a suburban district.

Romney 18,771 (+849)
Paul 12,248 (+250)
Santorum 11,935 (+260)
Gingrich 5,175 (+109)
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #337 on: March 04, 2012, 01:39:17 AM »

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

I'm just hoping this is Nevada 2.0, with Romney supporters deciding he's won the nomination and not bothering to show up for the contests a few days later.

Frankly, now more than ever, am I having a hard time understanding how Santorum won Colorado.

Colorado was before he so publicly and (to many people) repulsively explained his intent to govern as a outdated theocrat.
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jfern
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« Reply #338 on: March 04, 2012, 01:41:46 AM »

Well, Romney's pal Ron Paul managed to get 2nd place. Could this primary be over after Tuesday?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #339 on: March 04, 2012, 01:58:30 AM »

I forget if this has been confirmed --- are they using old or new districts?

I don't know how they'd use new districts, since the precincts aren't finished in virtually any county...so probably old, unless they split up precincts between LDs and allocated delegates somehow.  Sounds like a nightmare to me.

Although actually, I think that's exactly what the Democrats are doing, and I think it's a terrible idea.

I'm not sure how WA does it, but we used new districts in Michigan.  I'm not sure if thats an MIGOP thing or an RNC thing though.
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Alcon
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« Reply #340 on: March 04, 2012, 02:06:16 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 02:09:43 AM by Alcon »

100% reporting; Paul jumps up to a 505-vote lead in the unofficial final results.

Romney 19,111 (+340)
Paul 12,594 (+346)
Santorum 12,089 (+154)
Gingrich 5,221 (+46)

I guess that may be the 46th LD there (must be lonely to be a Santorum supporter in Seattle, but maybe some people were playing with the process.)

Romney 38%
Paul 25%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 10%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #341 on: March 04, 2012, 02:08:43 AM »

Turnout was quite bad it seems.

Only 50.000 voting in a state that was more than double the population of Iowa.

And Iowa had at least 130.000 people voting ...

I thought about 200.000 would vote in WA, without the primary and everything.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #342 on: March 04, 2012, 02:13:28 AM »

Turnout was quite bad it seems.

Only 50.000 voting in a state that was more than double the population of Iowa.

And Iowa had at least 130.000 people voting ...

I thought about 200.000 would vote in WA, without the primary and everything.

Isn't the turnout here comparable to a CO or a MN?  Iowa always has higher turnout than other caucus states.  It's kind of unreasonable to expect otherwise, since Iowa gets about a year of heavy attention from the candidates and media in advance of the voting.
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bgwah
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« Reply #343 on: March 04, 2012, 02:13:46 AM »

Does anyone remember what turnout was in the 2008 Democratic caucus? The official numbers we have on Atlas are delegate totals, not turnout.
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Alcon
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« Reply #344 on: March 04, 2012, 02:19:21 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2012, 02:21:47 AM by Alcon »

This may be an underestimation, but the Washington Democratic Party's database lists 187,003 people as being credited with voting in the 2008 caucuses.

Also, congratulations to the WA GOP on a freakishly accurate turnout estimate.  They predicted 50,000 people and 50,764 people voted.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #345 on: March 04, 2012, 02:28:43 AM »

Final map:

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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #346 on: March 04, 2012, 02:48:18 AM »

So I am guessing they dumped about 5,000 Ron Paul votes into Columbia.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #347 on: March 04, 2012, 02:51:39 AM »

So I am guessing they dumped about 5,000 Ron Paul votes into Columbia.

Over a million easily.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #348 on: March 04, 2012, 03:48:23 AM »

OVER 9000
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #349 on: March 04, 2012, 04:03:37 AM »


I was gonna say that... then thought it was too overused.  Now I regret not saying it first. Wink
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