Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[realisticidealist]

Twitter feed is now filling up with Ron Paul stolen election complaints.

'Twas inevitable.

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

I haven't seen any evidence that the turning 1000 people away hurt Paul any more than anyone else. I doubt Paul wins in Kennewick anyway.

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

Not if supporters of some candidates were more likely to show up early or shove their way to the front than supporters of others.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Apparently, the Bellevue-based 41st had a total turnout of 130.  These turnout reports don't quite gel...

What is that - a precinct?  Is that high or low?

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

Not if supporters of some candidates were more likely to show up early or shove their way to the front than supporters of others.

The die-hard Paul supporters would get there early.  The college kid Paul supporters would show up late.

Again, I said hypothetically.  But I really don't think it has a huge impact on the result.

[J. J.]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Apparently, the Bellevue-based 41st had a total turnout of 130.  These turnout reports don't quite gel...

What is that - a precinct?  Is that high or low?

It's a legislative district, 1/49th of the state population.  That's about the same turnout as the Whitman County piece of paper, which may not have covered the county, which is only 1/175th of the state's population total.

And then Benton County allegedly turned away 10x that many people, even though it's only a little more populous than a legislative district...

Doesn't make sense.

[J. J.]

Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.

It doesn't seem to be helping Santorum.

[GLPman]

This is the biggest circus of the primary season so far.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

This is the biggest circus of the primary season so far.

The Washington State GOP hasn't even got started, my friend.

[realisticidealist]

First results "expected at 3:30".

[bgwah]

We're getting reports of delegates from some areas, and actual voters from others. I'm guessing that explains much of the discrepancy.

[realisticidealist]

We're getting reports of delegates from some areas, and actual voters from others. I'm guessing that explains much of the discrepancy.

That was a problem last time too.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

If the 41st LD total was delegates and not turnout, that makes some sense...but Benton County turnout (or turn-away) has to be way overestimated.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

[realisticidealist]

Random other results

Ridgefield (Clark County): 107 Santorum, 106 Romney, 83 Paul, 42 Gingrich, 10 Undecided
Sedro-Wooley (Skagit) - partial: 31 Santorum, 27 Romney, 20 Paul, 10 Gingrich, 6 Undecided

[realisticidealist]

First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

The twitterverse. No guarantees, I suppose.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

The twitterverse. No guarantees, I suppose.

WSRP's twitter said 5:00.

[realisticidealist]

Official Yakima County results?

Romney 394
Santorum 252
Paul 225
Gingrich 136

[realisticidealist]

Skagit County

Romney 393
Santorum 202
Paul 170
Gingrich 162

No idea if these are accurate or not.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

These look fairly legit.  Romneyslide.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Do we have a feature on the site where you can do county map generation, or do you still have to do it with Paint/some other image editor?

[realisticidealist]

Romney won Yakima last time. Not surprising he won it again.

[realisticidealist]

Do we have a feature on the site where you can do county map generation, or do you still have to do it with Paint/some other image editor?

Paint, unfortunately.

[Lief]

Romney won Yakima last time. Not surprising he won it again.

Where are you getting county results for the 2008 caucus? Atlas doesn't have them.