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| | |-+  Washington GOP caucus **results thread**
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Author Topic: Washington GOP caucus **results thread**  (Read 6855 times)
realisticidealist
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« Reply #100 on: March 03, 2012, 05:42:08 pm »
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Twitter feed is now filling up with Ron Paul stolen election complaints.

'Twas inevitable.

Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

I haven't seen any evidence that the turning 1000 people away hurt Paul any more than anyone else. I doubt Paul wins in Kennewick anyway.
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« Reply #101 on: March 03, 2012, 05:42:26 pm »
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Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

Not if supporters of some candidates were more likely to show up early or shove their way to the front than supporters of others.
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« Reply #102 on: March 03, 2012, 05:42:35 pm »
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Apparently, the Bellevue-based 41st had a total turnout of 130.  These turnout reports don't quite gel...

What is that - a precinct?  Is that high or low?
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« Reply #103 on: March 03, 2012, 05:43:35 pm »
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Well, when you turn away 1000 people, you're gonna piss a lot of people off.  Though from a statistical standpoint, the distribution of the 1000 would hypothetically be the same as for the 2000 people that got in... hypothetically.

Not if supporters of some candidates were more likely to show up early or shove their way to the front than supporters of others.

The die-hard Paul supporters would get there early.  The college kid Paul supporters would show up late.

Again, I said hypothetically.  But I really don't think it has a huge impact on the result.
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J. J.
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« Reply #104 on: March 03, 2012, 05:46:25 pm »
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Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?
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J. J.

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« Reply #105 on: March 03, 2012, 05:47:40 pm »
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Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.
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« Reply #106 on: March 03, 2012, 05:48:14 pm »
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Apparently, the Bellevue-based 41st had a total turnout of 130.  These turnout reports don't quite gel...

What is that - a precinct?  Is that high or low?

It's a legislative district, 1/49th of the state population.  That's about the same turnout as the Whitman County piece of paper, which may not have covered the county, which is only 1/175th of the state's population total.

And then Benton County allegedly turned away 10x that many people, even though it's only a little more populous than a legislative district...

Doesn't make sense.
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J. J.
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« Reply #107 on: March 03, 2012, 05:49:03 pm »
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Fox is reporting high turnout, but no percentages.  Romney?

Nate Silver seemed to think high turnout would help Santorum or possibly Paul.

It doesn't seem to be helping Santorum.
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J. J.

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« Reply #108 on: March 03, 2012, 05:53:54 pm »
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This is the biggest circus of the primary season so far.
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« Reply #109 on: March 03, 2012, 05:54:12 pm »
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This is the biggest circus of the primary season so far.

The Washington State GOP hasn't even got started, my friend.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #110 on: March 03, 2012, 05:55:16 pm »
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First results "expected at 3:30".
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« Reply #111 on: March 03, 2012, 05:55:44 pm »
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We're getting reports of delegates from some areas, and actual voters from others. I'm guessing that explains much of the discrepancy.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #112 on: March 03, 2012, 05:56:42 pm »
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We're getting reports of delegates from some areas, and actual voters from others. I'm guessing that explains much of the discrepancy.

That was a problem last time too.
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« Reply #113 on: March 03, 2012, 05:58:34 pm »
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If the 41st LD total was delegates and not turnout, that makes some sense...but Benton County turnout (or turn-away) has to be way overestimated.
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« Reply #114 on: March 03, 2012, 06:03:19 pm »
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First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #115 on: March 03, 2012, 06:05:02 pm »
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Random other results

Ridgefield (Clark County): 107 Santorum, 106 Romney, 83 Paul, 42 Gingrich, 10 Undecided
Sedro-Wooley (Skagit) - partial: 31 Santorum, 27 Romney, 20 Paul, 10 Gingrich, 6 Undecided

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #116 on: March 03, 2012, 06:05:36 pm »
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First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

The twitterverse. No guarantees, I suppose.
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« Reply #117 on: March 03, 2012, 06:06:23 pm »
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First results "expected at 3:30".

Where did you hear that?

The twitterverse. No guarantees, I suppose.

WSRP's twitter said 5:00.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #118 on: March 03, 2012, 06:06:53 pm »
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Official Yakima County results?

Romney 394
Santorum 252
Paul 225
Gingrich 136
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #119 on: March 03, 2012, 06:08:18 pm »
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Skagit County

Romney 393
Santorum 202
Paul 170
Gingrich 162

No idea if these are accurate or not.
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« Reply #120 on: March 03, 2012, 06:10:49 pm »
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These look fairly legit.  Romneyslide.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #121 on: March 03, 2012, 06:11:25 pm »
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Do we have a feature on the site where you can do county map generation, or do you still have to do it with Paint/some other image editor?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #122 on: March 03, 2012, 06:11:41 pm »
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Romney won Yakima last time. Not surprising he won it again.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #123 on: March 03, 2012, 06:12:24 pm »
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Do we have a feature on the site where you can do county map generation, or do you still have to do it with Paint/some other image editor?

Paint, unfortunately.
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« Reply #124 on: March 03, 2012, 06:14:11 pm »
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Romney won Yakima last time. Not surprising he won it again.

Where are you getting county results for the 2008 caucus? Atlas doesn't have them.
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