Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Alcon]

Edit, CNN has the reverse, Paul up by 250 with not Skagit, Chelan, Douglas or Spokane.

Paul is up 250 because King reported another 25% and Paul now leads Santorum 27%-18% there.

And, no, you said something about all moderately-sized counties being Santorum>Paul

[Wisconsin+17]

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They were tied 19-all.

That's why I said that Santorum could not lose so long as he split King with Paul.

Really close to calling this with 50 percent of King out, for Paul.

[Torie]

Aren't the odds of Paul coming in second close to about 90% now?  Chalin is an empty county no?  What Pierce has left given the totals of what it had with 43% in, is anemic compared to King, with 50% out.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, 50 percent in, variance down to about 2 percent or so, double that would put Paul up by about half a percent.

That, given outstanding Pierce, swinging with Santorum, and with the only county outstanding...

Santorum might pick up another 250 votes, from Pierce and the county left.

Santorum will have to improve in Pierce to overcome the margin, but he wouldn't need much, and he'd need King to split.

If it were 400, it would be a call. 250, still TCTC.

[Torie]

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With the odds of Rick doing that being about the same as a successful Hail Mary pass.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Updated map:

[Alcon]

Aren't the odds of Paul coming in second close to about 90% now?  Chalin is an empty county no?

Chelan should be about 1.5% of the state vote, although it's hard to know how it will go.  You could make a good case for Romney, Santorum and even Paul.

This is all about Pierce and King.  The last King dump may have been Seattle, by the way, so we may only have the working-class Seattle suburbs left, plus Pierce County.  Hard to say though.

[Torie]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

I don't want it to be dull, I want it to be over.

[J. J.]

Aren't the odds of Paul coming in second close to about 90% now?  Chalin is an empty county no?  What Pierce has left given the totals of what it had with 43% in, is anemic compared to King, with 50% out.

It has a population of 66,000.

[Volrath50]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

I'm just hoping this is Nevada 2.0, with Romney supporters deciding he's won the nomination and not bothering to show up for the contests a few days later.

Frankly, now more than ever, am I having a hard time understanding how Santorum won Colorado.

[Alcon]

Yeah, Colorado looks downright bizarre in retrospect.

[Wisconsin+17]

That's double Douglas. That's good news for Santorum. Add another 100 votes swing and he only needs to get within 3 of Paul in King, assuming that Peirce doesn't swing some more his way too.

[Lincoln Republican]

Congratulations Politico Winfield!

Fixed.

Thank you very much, and might I say..........Congratulations Politico

as Winfield and Politico give each other a cyber high five.  

This is a great night for Washington, this is a great night for America, and this is a great night for democracy, not to mention a great night for Mitt.

[Lincoln Republican]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

Would that would be so, however, that is not to going to happen.  Romney will win, but he will absolutely not win everything from here on in, unfortunately.

[Alcon]

That's double Douglas. That's good news for Santorum. Add another 100 votes swing and he only needs to get within 3 of Paul in King, assuming that Peirce doesn't swing some more his way too.

Chelan is a tougher county demographically, though.  Douglas has East Wenatchee and then a sprawling farmland dotted by small towns.  Part of Chelan County (Wenatchee to Cashmere) is similar to Douglas County, although more urbanized, but other parts (Leavenworth, Lake Chelan) have a lot more Western Washington influence.

I think Santorum will probably beat Paul there (hell, he creamed him in Kittitas County, a college county) but I'd guess Romney will win Chelan.

That is, if they don't follow WAGOP tradition and stop counting for no reason.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, it's always interesting to learn more about all the little parts of America that get very little coverage.

I've been to some of these places, but not eastern Washington or Spokane. Just on the pacific side of I-5

[J. J.]

It looks like Romney by 11 points.

[Wisconsin+17]

With Gingrich as irrelevant.

[Alcon]

It looks like Romney by 11 points.

More, if anything.  Romney is outperforming his state average in both King and Pierce (+9% and +5%, respectively).  Based on a simplistic extrapolation, the remaining vote probably splits about 57% King, 35% Pierce and 8% Chelan.

Strong night for Romney, even if he's likely to barely beat his Colorado showing.

[J. J.]

It looks like Romney by 11 points.

More, if anything.  Romney is outperforming his state average in both King and Pierce (+9% and +5%, respectively).  Based on a simplistic extrapolation, the remaining vote probably splits about 57% King, 35% Pierce and 8% Chelan.

Strong night for Romney, even if he's likely to barely beat his Colorado showing.

If this is the precursor to Super Tuesday, the race could well be effectively over.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN has 83% of precincts reporting.  Only 4% left before it's time to stop counting......

[Alcon]

Reports from Vantage, Washington, of about 5,000 pieces of paper reading "Ron Paul" floating down the Columbia River.

[Lincoln Republican]

Reports from Vantage, Washington, of about 5,000 pieces of paper reading "Ron Paul" floating down the Columbia River.

Of course.  Everytime someone loses to Romney there's always thousands of votes for another candidate floating down a river, eaten by a dog, or transported telepathically into outer space.

[Sam Spade]

Gah, I hope the race doesn't get dull as dirt from here on with Romney winning everything.

I'm just hoping this is Nevada 2.0, with Romney supporters deciding he's won the nomination and not bothering to show up for the contests a few days later.

Frankly, now more than ever, am I having a hard time understanding how Santorum won Colorado.

(sigh)

Washington - 3.77% Mormon
Colorado -  2.69% Mormon

Add to that the fact that the Seattle suburbs contain GOP voters who should be very friendly to Romney (i.e. not religious) and a lot of Colorado's wealthy heavily Republican areas are fundy hotbeds (see, e.g. Colorado Springs), and you have a lot of the answers.

[tpfkaw]

Reports from Vantage, Washington, of about 5,000 pieces of paper reading "Ron Paul" floating down the Columbia River.

You may mock, but the Maine GOP chairman out-and-out said that they threw out every ballot paper:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/17/maine-gop-chair-romney-will-maintain-win/

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