Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Washington GOP caucus on Saturday, March 3rd

The caucuses start at 10am PT / 1pm ET and run for no more than two hours.  However, various news sources suggest that the Washington GOP will not release results until 5pm PT / 8pm ET.  Not clear if that means they'll dump 100% of the results all at once.  Presumably, there'll be a million leaks of results on Twitter well before that.

CNN and AP results:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/wa

link

link

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the threads on the 2008 caucus fiasco, in case you're feeling nostalgic:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70234.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70313.0

[Mr. Morden]

Caucus pics from the Seattle Times:

[Mr. Morden]

Don't you love caucuses?.....

http://blogs.mcclatchydc.com/washington/2012/03/party-officials-turned-at-least-1500-away-from-wash-caucus.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone know what time official numbers will start coming out?

They tweeted "around 5 PM" two hours ago.  But I'm not sure if they mean 5 PM EST or PST...

5pm PT / 8pm ET

[Mr. Morden]

Wait, is it possible that Paul wins this? Or are we just looking at a strong second over Santorum?

I defer to the judgment of those who know the state better than I do.

But I would note that there's sure to be a selection effect in this Twitter reporting, in that Paul voters are more likely to tweet their results out than the supporters of other candidates, and they are (by definition) more likely to live in areas with strong Paul support.

Santorum should be praying that he's running strong in counties where no one has internet access.  

[Mr. Morden]

IIRC, "Uncommitted" won a couple of counties in 2008.  Would be funny if that happened again.

[Mr. Morden]

Is any network covering this. I'm seeing no online coverage or maps besides Huffington which has nothing in.

CNN coverage will start at 8pm Eastern.

I don't suppose anyone wants to volunteer to make a map of these results? 

[Mr. Morden]

CNN posting results now:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/wa

[Mr. Morden]

From Google's latest results:

Romney 36%
Paul 25%
Santorum 25%
Gingrich 12%

Paul and Santorum exactly tied at 4203 votes.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN's election coverage intro is more epic than a Tim Pawlenty campaign ad.  What are they going to do for Super Tuesday?

[Mr. Morden]

Out of curiosity, is it possible to make a guess as to how strong Mormon turnout was, by looking at turnout in individual counties?  Which counties have the highest %age of Mormons?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, trying to answer my own question on Mormons.....

This map:

link

claims to show the %age of people in (nearly) each county in the USA who are Mormon.  Not a perfect correlation, but those southeastern counties where Romney is winning big seem to be the most Mormon.  The most Mormon county in the state is Adams, and Romney has a whopping 58% of the vote there (which I think might be his highest %age in the state).  So I presume that explains the divide between northeastern and southeastern Washington.

[Mr. Morden]

What's the deal with Adams County?  Why is it so heavily Romney, and what are its demographics like in general?  I thought maybe Mormons, but (according to Wikipedia) English ancestry is only 5.6% and there are even a few people who speak German as their first language.  So now I'm even more confused.

The map I linked to above says that Adams is 13% Mormon, which is the highest %age in the state.  Assuming that's accurate of course....

[Mr. Morden]

CNN has 83% of precincts reporting.  Only 4% left before it's time to stop counting......

[Mr. Morden]

Turnout was quite bad it seems.

Only 50.000 voting in a state that was more than double the population of Iowa.

And Iowa had at least 130.000 people voting ...

I thought about 200.000 would vote in WA, without the primary and everything.

Isn't the turnout here comparable to a CO or a MN?  Iowa always has higher turnout than other caucus states.  It's kind of unreasonable to expect otherwise, since Iowa gets about a year of heavy attention from the candidates and media in advance of the voting.